Uzbekistan's Energy Transition: From Fossil Fuels To Nuclear Ambitions

(MENAFN- Trend News Agency) BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 23. The development of Uzbekistan's energy sector is currently one of the state's top priorities. The country needs to ensure a stable and reliable supply of electricity to meet the demands of its growing population and expanding economy. Despite significant growth in electricity production in recent years, capacity shortages are already being felt, and existing energy sources are operating under heavy load.

According to forecasts, by 2030, Uzbekistan's population will exceed 41 million, and the economy will reach $200 billion. Government estimates suggest that by 2035, the country's electricity consumption will reach around 121 billion kilowatt-hours.

In 2023, electricity production totaled 78.0 TWh, while consumption reached 81.0 TWh, highlighting a resource deficit even at moderate demand levels. In 2024, production increased to 81.5 TWh, with consumption at 80.8 TWh, and in 2025, a balance of approximately 86.7 TWh of production versus 86.3 TWh of consumption is expected. By 2030, production could reach 105 TWh, with consumption around 103.4 TWh. At first glance, these figures appear balanced; however, an analysis of the energy system's structure reveals hidden vulnerabilities.

Currently, the majority of electricity, about 85 percent, is generated at gas- and coal-fired power plants with low efficiency of only 25–35 percent. This leads to high fuel consumption and significant strain on equipment, increasing the risk of power outages. Annually, more than 16 billion cubic meters of natural gas, over 2 million tons of coal, and tens of thousands of tons of fuel oil are consumed. The remaining 15% is supplied by hydroelectric plants and other renewable sources, which are limited by natural conditions and seasonal fluctuations.

“If we continue to rely on natural gas and coal in this sector, their reserves may be depleted over time. This would be an unforgivable mistake and a crime against future generations,” emphasized President Shavkat Mirziyoyev at a meeting on the development of nuclear energy in the country.

Under these circumstances, Uzbekistan is actively seeking alternative energy sources, and one of the most promising directions is nuclear power. Nuclear energy allows for the production of clean electricity without carbon emissions, reducing pollution by approximately 3 million tons per year.

The idea of building a nuclear power plant has been discussed in Uzbekistan since the 1980s, but political and geopolitical factors long delayed the project. New momentum emerged after 2017, when an agreement on cooperation for peaceful purposes was signed with Russia. In 2018, the parties agreed to build a large NPP consisting of two VVER-1200 units. It was planned to become operational by 2028 and cover up to 15 percent of the country's electricity demand. The site was chosen in the Jizzakh region, on Lake Tuzkan; however, the final contract was never signed.

According to experts, the launch of this station could have saved up to 3.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually. Even with a simple export, the country would have earned $550-600 million per year.

After a pause from 2020 through 2023, negotiations resumed, but with a focus on constructing a small NPP. In May 2024, a new agreement was signed, and in July, the construction of a production base began. The plant will consist of six RITM-200N reactors with a total capacity of 330 MW and is scheduled for commissioning by 2033.

“By 2050, energy demand in Uzbekistan is expected to nearly double. For the stable operation of the energy system, the country must have, in addition to renewable sources, a reliable base load. Worldwide, there is growing interest in nuclear technologies, both in large NPPs and small modular reactors. We are confident that expanding cooperation with Rosatom will strengthen our energy complex,” said Azim Ahmedkhadjaev, Director of the Agency for Nuclear Energy under the Cabinet of Ministers.

At the same time, authorities note that the country still needs a large reactor. In 2024, Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov stated,“Uzbekistan still needs a large reactor.” Later, Azim Ahmedkhadjaev added that in the long term, the country will need up to four NPPs.

The development of nuclear energy will provide Uzbekistan with several advantages: reliable coverage of electricity deficits, reduced domestic gas consumption, increased export potential, strengthened regional energy stability, attraction of investments and technology, creation of jobs, and the formation of a national scientific base.

However, the project is not without challenges. The construction of large NPPs requires significant investment and government guarantees. Additional difficulties include water scarcity and the low cost of electricity, around $0.02 per kWh, which does not cover the expenses of new plants. Therefore, implementing nuclear energy will require a revision of the tariff model.

Experts emphasize the need to clearly define a roadmap: selecting partners, technology, and a site. At the same time, small modular reactors should be developed, as they are faster to build, require less water, and are suitable for regional deployment.

For comparison, Kazakhstan plans to complete its first NPP by 2035–2036. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has highlighted the need to plan a second and third station. The first is being built in cooperation with Rosatom, while subsequent plants will involve China's CNNC. This approach demonstrates a strategy of diversifying partners, minimizing risks, and strengthening the energy system, an approach that could also benefit Uzbekistan, providing independence and flexibility in developing nuclear energy.

The development of nuclear energy in Uzbekistan is not just a technical project but a pressing necessity. It will ensure stable and safe electricity production amid growing demand, reduce pressure on traditional sources, and strengthen the country's export potential, supporting sustainable economic growth for years to come.

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