Kyiv's Attacks On Russian Energy Could Force Kremlin To Negotiate

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Ordinary Russians are beginning to feel the war's costs more directly and the pressure on the Kremlin is growing. Russia's economy cannot function without energy and eventually there will be a breaking point.

Perhaps the breaking point will come at the same time that Russians become angry at the colossal numbers of casualties – which average 1,000 per day and have now reached 1.1 million in just over three years, or 20 times greater than Soviet losses in Afghanistan over a decade of the USSR's occupation of Afghanistan. Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's Moscow correspondent , has found that even in Vladivostock – 4,000 miles from Ukraine – cemeteries are full of Russia's war dead.

Since late 2023, Ukraine has unleashed a drone offensive, using domestically produced medium and long-range drones to target Russian oil refineries.

By 2024, the Biden administration was upset at the impact Ukraine was beginning to have, as the US was sensitive to changes to oil prices. The Biden administration was also paranoid about“escalation” in its proxy war with Russia.

For Russia, oil and gas revenues help fund its ongoing war against Ukraine. It's a costly ordeal for Russia, which must continually feed waves of manpower into Ukraine's“drone wall” as the war grinds into a battle of attrition.

Drones have formed the backbone of Ukraine's defense, and now they're increasingly used on the offensive against Russia. Over time, the drone strikes became more effective . By 2025, Ukraine had built an extensive fleet of medium and long-range drones and put them to use, targeting Russian oil and hitting Moscow where it hurts most.

Kyiv believes these to be“kinetic sanctions,” since the West has been hesitant to target Russian oil for years. And for Putin, rising fuel prices are a potential political threat to the stability of his regime. Many Russians still remember the collapsing Soviet economy in the 1980s.

Since early August, Ukraine has carried out more tens of strikes on Russian oil refineries, knocking out as much as 20% of refining capacity – over 1 million barrels a day. According to The Economist , the attacks have forced rationing, sent wholesale petrol prices up by more than 50%, and pushed Russia to suspend gasoline exports. The attacks are continuing into September and will continue further into winter.

The notches on Kyiv's belt are many, as this tweeted graphic illustrates:

The result is that Russians are stuck in long lines waiting for fuel. Some cities don't have any fuel supplies left. Russian war bloggers are furious. Local government budgets are in freefall. All of Russia's major oil companies have reported profit declines in 2025, with industry-wide earnings cut in half.

The shortages now dominate the headlines of Russian newspapers. By early September, Putin himself was forced to admit that Russia is facing a gas shortage. The result is growing social pressure within the country. One Russian war blogger wrote ,“We've been half-dead here for months, digging mud in the trenches, under drones every day, counting bullets – while, back home, oil refineries are burning down in batches.”

The Kremlin's official narrative has been that damage to refineries came from falling debris after drones were shot down. Yet,at the same time, Russian authorities broadcast loudspeaker warnings urging citizens not to record footage of Ukrainian drones – an implicit admission that direct hits have been occurring and a warning not to broadcast the success of Kyiv's efforts.