Brazil's Financial Morning Call For September 15, 2025

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets open today under heightened uncertainty, driven by Moody's warning that Brazil could lose U.S. trade perks due to the conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro, raising fears of renewed trade tensions.

U.S. rhetoric, including statements like“America stands with the Brazilian people, justice is coming,” signals potential diplomatic friction that could impact investor confidence.

Additionally, the ongoing Amazon trade battle, balancing agricultural exports with deforestation concerns, threatens global trade dynamics and Brazil's $20 billion export market, particularly in agriculture and commodities.

Despite these challenges, Brazil's services sector showed resilience with a 0.3% growth in July, marking six months of gains and a 2.8% annual increase, surpassing expectations.

Today's economic agenda, including the BCB Focus Market Readout and IBC-Br Economic Activity, will provide critical insights into inflation, growth, and monetary policy expectations, shaping currency stability and investor sentiment amid global trade pressures and domestic policy uncertainties.
Economic Agenda
Today's economic agenda is packed with domestic and global indicators that will influence Brazil's trade-heavy economy, currency outlook, and investor confidence amid U.S. trade threats, Amazon-related export concerns, and resilient services sector growth.



Liquidity may be slightly impacted by Japan's Respect for the Aged Day holiday, reducing Asian market activity.
Brazil

• 7:25 AM EST / 8:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. This aggregates market forecasts for inflation, GDP, and Selic rate, critical for gauging monetary policy expectations amid a 15% Selic rate, potential loss of U.S. trade perks, and Amazon trade risks impacting agricultural exports. It shapes currency and investor sentiment in a high-rate, trade-uncertain environment.
  
• 8:00 AM EST / 9:00 AM BRT – IBC-Br Economic Activity (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.10%. Tracks broad economic activity, vital after July's 0.3% services sector growth and 2.8% annual rise, signaling resilience despite trade tensions and deforestation concerns affecting export sectors.
  

These releases are pivotal for understanding Brazil's economic trajectory, currency stability, and investor confidence amid global trade pressures and domestic growth signals. Globally, several indicators will influence Brazil's commodity-driven economy:
Key Events
Asia

• 3:00 AM EST / 4:00 AM BRT – CNY FDI (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -13.40%. Gauges foreign investment in China, indirectly signaling demand for Brazilian commodities like iron ore, critical amid trade tensions and Amazon export concerns.
  - Japan Holiday – Respect for the Aged Day: Reduced Asian market activity may impact liquidity for Brazilian commodity exports.
  

Europe

• 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – EUR German WPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.5%. Tracks wholesale inflation, relevant for Brazilian export pricing under U.S. trade perk risks.
  
• 2:00 AM EST / 3:00 AM BRT – EUR German WPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.2%, Previous -0.1%. Signals short-term price trends, impacting Brazilian commodity margins.
  
• 4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT – EUR Italian Trade Balance (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 5.500B, Previous 5.409B. Measures trade flows, affecting demand for Brazilian goods.
  
• 4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT – EUR Italian Trade Balance EU (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -0.07B. Reflects intra-EU trade, influencing Brazilian export markets.
  
• 4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT – EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 5.39B. Impacts Brazil's non-EU export outlook.
  
• 5:00 AM EST / 6:00 AM BRT – EUR Trade Balance (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 11.7B, Previous 7.0B. Tracks Eurozone trade surplus, affecting Brazilian goods demand.
  
• 5:30 AM EST / 6:30 AM BRT – EUR German 12-Month Bubill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.895%. Signals short-term yields, impacting Eurozone liquidity and Brazilian trade.
  
• 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – EUR German Buba Monthly Report: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides economic insights, influencing Brazilian export demand.
  
• 6:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM BRT – EUR Reserve Assets Total (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1,498.95B. Signals Eurozone financial stability, impacting flows to Brazil.
  
• 7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT – EUR ECB's Schnabel Speaks: Provides monetary policy signals, influencing risk sentiment for Brazilian assets.
  
• 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – EUR French 3-Month BTF Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.989%. Signals short-term rates, affecting Eurozone liquidity.
  
• 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – EUR French 6-Month BTF Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.006%. Mid-term yields influence Brazilian trade flows.
  
• 9:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – EUR French 12-Month BTF Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 1.997%. Bond yields signal policy, impacting flows to Brazil.
  
• 2:30 PM EST / 3:30 PM BRT – EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Policy remarks will influence Eurozone sentiment, affecting Brazilian exports.
  

North America

• 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 4.30, Previous 11.90. Signals U.S. manufacturing health, critical amid potential loss of trade perks.
  
• 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.7%, Previous 0.3%. Impacts demand for Brazilian industrial exports.
  
• 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 177.3K. Reflects consumer trends, influencing Brazilian auto exports.
  
• 8:30 AM EST / 9:30 AM BRT – CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.4%, Previous 0.7%. Signals trade activity, impacting Brazilian goods.
  
• 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – USD 3-Month Bill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.940%. Short-term yields affect dollar strength and Brazilian real.
  
• 11:30 AM EST / 12:30 PM BRT – USD 6-Month Bill Auction: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 3.730%. Yields influence currency and capital flows.
  

Oceania and Other

• 5:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM BRT – KRW Export Price Index (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -4.3%. Signals export trends, impacting Brazilian commodity demand.
  
• 5:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM BRT – KRW Import Price Index (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -5.9%. Affects global trade flows.
  
• 6:45 PM EST / 7:45 PM BRT – NZD FPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.7%. Tracks food price trends, relevant for Brazil's agricultural exports.
  
• 11:00 PM EST / 12:00 AM BRT (Sep 16) – KRW M3 Money Supply (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 5,851.1B. Signals monetary trends for commodity demand.
  
• 11:00 PM EST / 12:00 AM BRT (Sep 16) – KRW M2 Money Supply (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 5.40%. Affects Asian trade with Brazil.
  
• 11:00 PM EST / 12:00 AM BRT (Sep 16) – NZD RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 60.80%. Signals investment trends, impacting commodity markets.
  

These global events matter as they influence demand for Brazil's commodity exports (iron ore, agriculture, oil) and the real's stability amid U.S. trade perk risks, Amazon trade concerns, and resilient domestic services growth.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
Brazilian traders secured profits on Friday, September 12, 2025, pushing the Ibovespa index down 0.61% to 142,271.58 points, with a weekly decline of 0.26% but monthly gains of 0.60%.

The index ranged between a low of 142,240.7 and a high of 143,202.09, with trading volume at R$16.4 billion, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid U.S. trade perk concerns and Bolsonaro's conviction.

The services sector's 0.3% growth in July (2.8% YoY) provided some optimism, though trade uncertainties lingered.

The absence of immediate U.S. retaliation post-Bolsonaro conviction eased tensions, and the removal of 10% U.S. duties on cellulose and ferro-nickel supported exporters in proteins and related sectors.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets ended mixed on Friday, September 12, 2025, with all major indices posting weekly gains ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.

The S&P 500 closed nearly flat at 6,584.29, up 1.6% for the week. The Dow Jones fell 0.6% to 45,834.22 but gained 1% weekly.

The Nasdaq hit a record, rising 0.4% to 22,139.46, up 2% for the week. Tech stocks led gains, though market breadth was narrow, with only 25% of S&P stocks advancing.

Rate-cut expectations rose to 96% for the Fed's next meeting, with bond yields above 4% and jobless claims at 263,000 (vs. 235,000 expected), supporting emerging market flows despite Brazil's trade perk risks.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real extended gains to USD/BRL 5.39 on September 12, 2025, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar amid 96% Fed rate-cut odds, Brazil's 15% Selic rate, and moderating inflation from U.S. tariff relief on select goods.

Trump's trade policies inadvertently helped tame Brazilian inflation, supporting the real. However, risks from potential U.S. trade perk losses and Amazon trade concerns persist.

Today's BCB Focus at 7:25 AM EST (8:25 AM BRT) and IBC-Br at 8:00 AM EST (9:00 AM BRT) will guide currency expectations.

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Oil Prices
Oil prices showed resilience, with Brent at $67.25 and WTI at $63.80 on September 12, supported by geopolitical tensions and market nerves, despite U.S. trade uncertainties impacting Brazil.

This pressures Petrobras' revenues, worsened by potential U.S. trade perk losses. Today's German WPI at 2:00 AM EST (3:00 AM BRT) will signal European demand trends.

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Gold Prices
Gold neared a record peak at $3,590/oz on September 12, driven by central bank demand, $38B ETF inflows, and a weaker dollar amid 96% Fed rate-cut odds.

This supports Brazil's mining exports despite trade risks. Today's French BTF auctions at 9:00 AM EST (10:00 AM BRT) will guide Eurozone liquidity and sentiment.

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Silver Prices
Silver surged to $41.20/oz, driven by industrial demand (solar/electronics), supply strains, and Fed rate-cut expectations, with firm ETF inflows. This bolsters Brazil's mining sector. Today's German WPI at 2:00 AM EST (3:00 AM BRT) will clarify industrial demand trends.

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Copper Prices
Copper stayed strong at $4.60/lb, supported by tightening supply and investor caution, though U.S. trade perk risks and Amazon trade concerns redirect flows.

This cautiously supports Vale's exports. Today's German WPI at 2:00 AM EST (3:00 AM BRT) will provide demand clarity.

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Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin steadied at $111,000 on September 12, in a $108,000-$114,000 range, with traders eyeing Fed rate-cut signals and global liquidity tightening.

This reflects cautious sentiment in Brazil's fintech sector amid trade uncertainties. Today's NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM EST (9:30 AM BRT) will influence digital asset trends.

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Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore held at $104.50/ton, navigating China's property crisis and steel demand slowdown, with Brazil's exports at record levels but facing oversupply risks. This pressures Vale. Today's CNY FDI at 3:00 AM EST (4:00 AM BRT) will hint at Asian demand.

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Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil's economy faces challenges from a 15% Selic rate, potential U.S. trade perk losses threatening $20 billion in exports, Amazon trade concerns impacting agriculture, and geopolitical tensions post-Bolsonaro conviction.

However, July's 0.3% services sector growth (2.8% YoY) and tariff relief on cellulose and ferro-nickel signal resilience.

The Ibovespa's 142,271.58 close and real at 5.39 reflect cautious optimism from Fed rate-cut bets, though trade risks persist. A $2.2 billion acquisition of Brazil's energy sector by a Spanish giant underscores foreign investment interest .

Today's BCB Focus at 7:25 AM EST (8:25 AM BRT), IBC-Br at 8:00 AM EST (9:00 AM BRT), and German WPI at 2:00 AM EST (3:00 AM BRT) will shape demand for oil, mining, and services.

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Key Developments
U.S. Trade Perk Risks: Moody's warns Brazil could lose U.S. trade benefits post-Bolsonaro conviction, threatening $20 billion in exports, with U.S. rhetoric escalating tensions.

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Amazon Trade Battle: Agricultural export growth clashes with deforestation concerns, risking global trade relations and Brazil's export outlook.

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Services Sector Resilience: July's 0.3% growth (2.8% YoY) supports economic stability, boosting investor confidence.

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Energy Sector M&A: A Spanish giant's $2.2 billion acquisition of Brazil's energy assets signals strong foreign interest.

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Commodity Pressures: Iron ore ($104.50) and oil ($67.25) face trade and demand risks, while gold ($3,590) and silver ($41.20) support mining.

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Stock Market Dynamics: Ibovespa dipped to 142,271.58 amid profit-taking, with services sector gains offset by trade concerns.

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Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).

EST is applied here for consistency, aligning with U.S. financial market schedules, influencing global trading.

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