Lukashenko May Continue Prisoner-For-Sanctions Bargain With U.S., Expert Says

(MENAFN- UkrinForm) That's the view of Yaroslav Chornohor, Director of the Russia and Belarus Studies Program at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, who commented to Ukrinform.

According to Chornohor, lifting sanctions on Belavia Airlines has little immediate effect for Minsk. While the carrier is formally allowed to fly to the U.S.,“the question is - from which airports?” he noted, since European restrictions remain in place. The only option would be flights from Russia.

“The main negative consequence of this U.S. step,” Chornohor explained,“is that Russia and Belarus can now officially obtain spare parts to service their aircraft. This decision could also create a loophole for other hostile states.”

He added that Washington is pursuing such deals with Lukashenko to showcase the release of detainees as a diplomatic win.“But what's overlooked is that for every ten people freed, the Belarusian regime could jail a hundred more,” the analyst said.

“The release of several dozen political prisoners becomes a news hook and proof of 'successful negotiations,' while suspending or lifting sanctions is presented as the price for those people. In effect, Lukashenko's regime is trading its own citizens for economic and political gains,” Chornohor remarked.

Looking ahead, he predicted that much will depend on how Zapad-2025 unfolds.“If there are no provocations by Belarusian or Russian units, the bargaining will continue - Lukashenko will release more political prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief, for example on potash exports or access to Lithuanian and Polish ports.”

As for U.S. interest in engaging with Lukashenko, whose political weight is not especially significant, the expert suggested it could be linked to Belarus's geographic position on Russia's border and its ties with China.

“It's a kind of geopolitical knot, and the U.S. is trying to untangle it by flirting with the Belarusian dictator. Perhaps the U.S. thinks that easing sanctions could draw Lukashenko away from Moscow, though it may just be about chasing headline-grabbing results,” Chornohor concluded.

Read also: Germany reminds Lukashenko of demand to release over thousand political prisoners

As reported by Ukrinform, Belarus recently freed 52 political prisoners, while the U.S. lifted sanctions on Belavia. Earlier, on June 21, 14 political prisoners were released with U.S. and Lithuanian mediation.

In August 2023, the United States imposed sanctions on eight individuals in Belarus and five organizations, including Belavia airline, and blocked the use of one aircraft, citing Lukashenko regime's continued repression and suppression of civil liberties.

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