Explained: Why Singapore And U.S. Cancelled Guam Fighter Jet Basing Plans Amid Intensifying China Rivalry

Singapore and the United States have agreed to scrap plans for a permanent Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) fighter jet detachment in Guam, despite having signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in 2019 to establish the facility by 2029. The stated reason is the environmental impacts of construction. It appears insufficient, given Washington's simultaneous expansion of military infrastructure on the island. Instead, the cancellation reflects deeper geopolitical considerations for both countries.

For Singapore, the decision shows its effort to remain non-aligned amid sharpening U.S.-China rivalry while mitigating risks to its defense assets. For Washington, it points to the pressures of military redeployment in Guam, where space and resources are increasingly stretched by a growing buildup of American forces.

Singapore has long relied on the U.S. for training opportunities, owing to its limited domestic airspace. Since the 1990s, RSAF detachments have trained in Arizona, Idaho, and previously on Guam, benefiting from vast U.S. airspace and exposure to U.S. Air Force practices. This overseas training has not only enhanced operational readiness but also deepened bilateral defense cooperation.

Guam once played a similar role in Singapore's military strategy. Between the 1990s and 2019, the country periodically deployed fighter jets there, partly to address concerns about survivability. Singapore's air bases at home could be vulnerable in a regional conflict, especially given modernization of neighboring air forces in Indonesia and Malaysia from the late 1980s onward. Stationing aircraft abroad allowed Singapore to preserve assets and ensure rapid recall in emergencies.

The 2019 MOU was a milestone. Alongside renewal of a defense facilities agreement, Singapore secured a plan to permanently base its F-15s in Guam. The move was publicly framed as an affirmation of Singapore's belief in U.S. presence as essential for Indo-Pacific stability. Then-Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen described the deal as evidence that Singapore supported continued U.S. influence in the region.

Yet last month, both sides quietly cancelled the Guam project.

Singapore's Balancing Act Between Washington and Beijing

For Singapore, the shift stems from geopolitical caution. Since China's military modernization accelerated in 2015, Guam has increasingly fallen within reach of Beijing's advanced intermediate-range ballistic missiles. In the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, Guam would likely become an early target. Permanent deployment of RSAF fighters there could expose Singapore to both military risk and political entanglement.

The concern is not merely about operational losses. Singapore has consistently avoided aligning too closely with U.S. containment strategies against China. Its history shows why. In 2016, after Singapore criticized Chinese actions in the South China Sea and maintained military training in Taiwan, Beijing retaliated. Hong Kong authorities impounded nine Singaporean armored vehicles, and Singapore was excluded from the 2017 Belt and Road Forum.

A visible, permanent RSAF presence in Guam could easily be interpreted by Beijing as a strong support for Washington's strategic agenda. For Singapore, China's top trading partner, avoiding such perceptions is critical. Cancelling the basing plan helps signal continued neutrality, even as it maintains strong security cooperation with the U.S.

On the American side, the calculation is different. Guam is becoming the centerpiece of Washington's strategy to deter China. Once part of a forward-deployed network within the“first island chain,” U.S. forces there grew vulnerable after China expanded its ballistic missile capabilities. To mitigate this, Washington has strengthened missile defense in Guam and redeployed strategic assets to the island.

The shift is significant. In December 2024, 4,000 Marines were relocated from Okinawa to Guam's Camp Blaz. In July 2025, B-52 bombers were moved from North Dakota to Andersen Air Force Base. These deployments, coupled with Guam's logistics importance, have left the island crowded with new assets. Expanding capacity has become a U.S. priority, but available space for foreign detachments has diminished.

Against this backdrop, hosting Singapore's fighters could have complicated Washington's own operational planning. While Singapore's presence would have been symbolically valuable, it is secondary to the U.S. need to ensure survivability and readiness of its own forces.

Limited Impact But Clear Strategic Signaling

The cancellation does not weaken the broader U.S.-Singapore defense relationship. Singapore will continue to conduct routine training in Guam and is working with Washington to establish a new fighter detachment in Alaska. These steps ensure that Singapore retains access to large training areas and maintains defense partnership with the U.S.

At the same time, the move helps Singapore subtly signal to Beijing that it is not directly part of a containment effort. This preserves its diplomatic flexibility while reducing the risk of suspective Chinese measures.

For the U.S., cancelling the arrangement may relieve pressures on Guam's limited infrastructure as Washington strengthens its Indo-Pacific presence. But it also reinforces the reality that Guam is a frontline in U.S.-China competition. Any additional deployments risk inflaming regional tensions further.

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