Anutin Takes Helm As Thaksin Flies The Coop In Thailand

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Bhumjaithai is renowned for bringing“medical” marijuana to Thailand, in what one related advisor has touted as“Amsterdam on steroids” for its wild and woolly rollout, but it's not immediately clear it has a coherent or innovative agenda to spark a flagging economy that some say is in terminal demographic and competitive decline.

The parliamentary vote came after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was ousted in an August 29 Constitutional Court ruling that found she breached ethics and integrity rules in a private fawning phone call with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen.

In that now-historic tete-a-tete, later leaked in pique by Hun Sen, Paetongtarn referred to a top Thai military official as“opposed” to her government amid border tensions that later exploded into violence, resulting in military and civilian deaths on both sides and a surge of Thai nationalism that targeted the Shinawatras as selling out national interests.

The court ruling effectively unraveled a widely assumed palace deal that let ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra-Peua Thai patron and Paetongtarn's father-return from 15 years of self-exile under a royal pardon in exchange for unwavering, yellow-garbed loyalty to the crown.

Anutin, the Hofstra University-educated scion of a politically connected construction company, was moving on the premiership well before the bombshell ruling, holding quiet meetings and making promises to both coalition and opposition party leaders in anticipation of Paetongtarn's fall from grace.

Crucially, those included a reported meeting with palace Lord Chamberlain Air Chief Marshal Satitpong Sukvimol, widely regarded as King Vajiralongkorn's most trusted aide and arguably the palace's most powerful non-royal figure.

Those royal connections were on full display in April when Anutin, then Interior Minister, traveled with King Vajiralongkorn to Bhutan and walked closely behind him during the monarch's first official overseas visit – marking a notable break with traditional diplomatic protocol.

Anutin may thus be seen as a trusted pair of hands for handling sensitive royal affairs, including the anticipated announcement of Princess Bajrakitiyabha Mahidol's passing. The princess, Vajiralongkorn's eldest daughter, has been in a coma since collapsing at a provincial military camp in December 2022.

Still, analysts and diplomats are left wondering why Thaksin's presumed royal deal collapsed, though many believe it may have unravelled in part because Thaksin openly advertised the notion that he and his daughter enjoyed special palace protection.

Some now wonder if Thaksin's royally enabled return, revival and now seemingly calcuated court-ordered demise were a deliberate strategy to co-opt, divide and neuter his red-garbed, supposed pro-poor and sometimes anti-royal movement – once viewed as the greatest threat to the conservative establishment embodied by the palace, military and big family monopolies.

Thaksin's value relied largely on restraining the upstart People's Party, which has previously advocated strongly for royal reform, including to the lese majeste law, which is wielded widely and severely to squelch any criticism of top royal family members.

The party – now twice dissolved, most recently for campaigning on royal reform – has more recently muted its calls for monarchical change and instead targeted Paetongtarn's ineffectual government while pushing for reform to the military-drafted 2017 constitution.

Analysts and diplomats are already speculating that the People's Party may have backed Anutin over Chaikasem partly on a hint of leniency in a pending lese majeste-related case that threatens to ban 44 of its members, including 25 sitting MPs. If true, it could mark the first sign of a palace-People's Party rapprochement.