(MENAFN- Asia Times) Electricity is the backbone of the modern economy – the operating system of the digital age. As the world's hunger for power intensifies – from data centers and AI to electric vehicles and smart cities – one reality has become undeniable: the planet's electrical and climatic destiny is being forged in Asia.

The continent is not only the largest power consumer and producer; it has also become the primary geopolitical arena for next-generation energy technologies.

Recent reports mark a historic milestone: In 2024, low-carbon sources (renewables plus nuclear) surpassed 40% of global electricity generation for the first time, driven by an explosive buildout of solar and wind. This achievement – underwritten by trillions of dollars of investment and rapid innovation – offers a credible path toward a postcarbon economy.

Yet the larger picture is more sobering: over half of the world's electricity is still produced by burning fossil fuels, and Asia sits at the center of this paradox – both the champion of the green transition and its greatest obstacle.

The global landscape: two opposing forces

In 2024, two powerful and conflicting mega-trends dominated the global electricity sector. Understanding these forces is essential to grasping Asia's pivotal role.

Solar and wind expanded at a record pace in 2024, together overtaking hydropower for the first time. Roughly 858 TWh of additional clean generation came online – about the annual consumption of the UK and France combined – so that, excluding heatwave effects, ~96% of incremental demand was met by low-carbon sources.

Falling capital expenditures, policy support (IRA, EU Green Deal) and maturing supply chains have moved clean power from“alternative” to mainstream source of new supply.

Global electricity demand rose ~4.0% in 2024. Beyond weather, the drivers are structural: AI data centers, EV uptake, heat pumps and industrial electrification. Result: Absolute fossil generation declines only slowly because new demand absorbs much of the clean buildout, leaving thermal fleets critical for firm capacity and peak coverage – at least until grids, storage and demand response scale.

Asia: engine of production, epicenter of the challenge

Asia alone generates over 52% of the world's electricity (approximately 16,152 TWh in 2024), more than Europe and North America combined. But the backbone of this colossal production machine remains coal, which supplies nearly 55% of the continent's power. This deep dependency, a legacy of decades of rapid and cheap industrialization, places Asia at the heart of the global energy paradox.

Table 1: Top 10 electricity producers & key indicators (2024)

Country	Production (TWh)	Consumption (TWh)	Surplus/Deficit (TWh)	Net trade (TWh, +imports/−exports)	Percapita (kWh)	Share of world
China	10,072.6	10,058.7	+13.9	−13.9	7,097	32.6%
United States	4,387.3	4,401.1	−13.8	+13.8	12,701	14.2%
India	2,057.5	2,054.5	+3.1	−3.1	1,418	6.7%
Russia	1,211.3	1,194.8	+16.5	−16.5	8,364	3.9%
Japan	1,022.3	1,022.3	0.0	0.0	8,261	3.3%
Brazil	745.3	760.4	−15.1	+15.1	3,515	2.4%
Canada	627.2	614.7	+12.5	−12.5	15,781	2.0%
South Korea	622.0	622.0	0.0	0.0	12,027	2.0%
France	557.7	466.7	+91.0	−91.0	8,381	1.8%
Germany	575.0	530.0	+45.0	−45.0	6,845	1.9%

Source: Energy Institute, Ember. Data is rounded.

What matters next is simple: whether incremental demand in China, India, the Middle East and Russia is met with clean supply fast enough to bend the global crossover year toward the 2030s. Otherwise, business-as-usual inertia pushes it late into the century.

The table makes two points. First, China and India are production giants whose per capita use remains far below advanced economy levels – implying powerful upside in future demand. Second, trade balances and grid carbon intensity vary widely even among top producers, with direct implications for industrial competitiveness.

China. The world's pacesetter in solar and wind buildout still leans on coal to preserve grid reliability. Heatwaves and Yangtze basin droughts have exposed hydro's volatility, forcing coal plants to backfill peaks and protect base load.

A legacy grid designed for centralized thermal plants struggles to move vast westside renewables to eastern load centers without massive ultrahigh-voltage (UHV) expansion. And curtailment (renewable output forced offline due to grid constraints) remains a risk.

Just as important, coal-linked jobs and regional political economy – an implicit labor market stabilizer – slow any abrupt fossil exit. In short, China is greening fast, but reliability, hydro swings, grid geography and labor realities explain why coal endures.

India. In 2024, generation totaled ≈2,057 TWh. Demand is soaring, and steep evening ramps test system operations. Coal still anchors supply while monsoon-driven hydro variability complicates planning. Financial stress at distribution companies, combined with transmission bottlenecks, slows renewable integration.

The near-term playbook is clear: Expand solar parks and rooftops, scale pumped storage and batteries to shave ramps and roll out time-of-day tariffs to align demand with cleaner supply.

Middle East. Power mixes remain dominated by gas and oil (≈70% gas; ≈20% oil), with summer air conditioning and desalination driving extreme peaks. Broad subsidies mute price signals, though GCC interconnections and grid code reforms are inching forward. Gigawatt-scale solar – and early nuclear in the UAE – are bending the curve from a low base.

To turn the corner, the region needs market reform, storage for peak shaving and sturdier cross-border interconnectors to balance weather and load across borders.

Russia. In 2024, generation was ≈1,211 TWh. A low-carbon baseload built on gas, nuclear and hydro coexists with regionally significant coal. An aging thermal fleet, sanctions and constrained capex are factors that limit technology upgrades.

Harsh winter peaks and a reoriented power trade define dispatch and investment choices. Expect incremental upgrades, life extension of nuclear/hydro and only modest growth in variable renewables. What matters next is whether these systems meet new load with clean supply fast enough to pull the global crossover toward the 2030s.

Three futures: When will renewables overtake fossil fuels?

To map the future, we regress annual global shares of fossil vs low-carbon electricity (1985–2024) and extrapolate to 2090. Three bracketing scenarios emerge:

• Business‐as‐usual: Linear regression of the renewables share and the fossil‐fuel share indicates a crossover around 2082 if the world continues its present trajectory and policies.
• Policy‐driven (commitments): Fourth‐degree (polynomial) regression of renewables and fossil shares – reflecting elevated policy attention, accelerated investment, and the absence of major regional crises – consistent with UNEP/IPCC‐aligned targets → crossover ≈ 2037 (optimistic).
• Author's midpoint: The diamond in the chart denotes the author‐judged intersection region where the linear trendlines for renewables and fossil generation most plausibly cross, centered around ~2050. This midpoint reflects (i) the gradual depletion and tightening constraints on accessible carbon reserves, (ii) the world's growing structural need for renewables, and (iii) the forcing of global warming; absent an extraordinary policy shift, current trajectories make this the most likely outcome.

Chart created by Amirreza Etasi, using data from Our World in Data

This 45‐year spread between business-as-usual and policy‐driven paths is the decisive window. Its outcome will be determined largely by Asia, including the Middle East, where gas‐ and oil‐heavy systems now coexist with gigawatt‐scale solar buildouts.

If China, India, and key Middle Eastern power systems meet incremental demand primarily with clean power – while expanding grids, storage and market flexibility – the world tracks the earlier crossover. If not, fresh carbon lock‐in across South and Southeast Asia and parts of the Middle East pushes toward the late path.

Rewriting the map of global competitiveness

The energy transition is not merely environmental; it is a strategic realignment of the global economy.

Tomorrow's comparative advantage will be set by LCOE, grid reliability, carbon intensity, and access to cleantech supply chains (PV, batteries, turbines, and critical minerals). Countries offering cheap, clean, reliable electricity will become magnets for investment – from green hydrogen to semiconductors and biotech.