Why US Upgraded Balochistan Liberation Army's Terror Designation

This series of megaprojects has stalled in recent years for a variety of reasons, ranging from corruption to Pakistan's political dysfunction since April 2022's post-modern coup and especially the BLA's spree of terrorist attacks afterwards, which exploited the state's and security apparatus's new focus on crushing the opposition.

Given the outsized role that the BLA has played in subverting the CPEC, which the US hitherto turned a blind eye to for reasons of strategic convenience despite its existing terrorist designation, it should be a de facto US ally.

Instead, its US terrorist designation was just raised, thus naturally prompting the question of why. The rapidly evolving regional and global contexts help answer that.

Not only has the US entered into a rapprochement with Pakistan, but it's also seeking one with China, as seen in Trump's eagerness to reach a trade deal and his recent muted criticism of Beijing. This could respectively reshape the region and the world alike if these dual rapprochements successfully derail India's rise as a great power .

By raising the BLA's terrorist designation, the US is signaling that it will stop opposing CPEC as part of what might be a grand compromise with China, with this concession aimed at helping to revive one of the BRI's flagship projects so as to further strengthen the Sino-Pakistan alliance against India.

Getting CPEC back on track could also offset the incipient Sino-Indo rapprochement since it was CPEC's announcement a decade ago that sparked the latest phase of their rivalry due to it transiting through Indian-claimed but Pakistani-controlled territory.

The grand strategic goal that the US is pursuing is the“G2”/“Chimerica” scenario of dividing the world with China after it failed to restore unipolarity, which requires containing, subordinating and possibly even“Balkanizing” India since its rise as a great power would scupper the plan.

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Indian analyst Surya Kanegaonkar suspects that the BLA's new designation could precede a US-Pakistani attempt to place India on the Financial Action Task Force on the pretext that it backs the group, which may be correct but has never been proven.

All told, the importance of the BLA's new terrorist designation is that it corroborates claims that the US is using its new rapprochement with Pakistan to advance a more globally significant one with China, both of which are driven in large part by their now apparently shared interest in derailing India's rise as a great power.

Whether or not the US-Pakistani rapprochement holds, a US-Chinese one seems increasingly secured amid ongoing trade talks, and/or India is contained, the fact is that the US is attempting another power play follows its latest against Russia .

This article was first published on Andrew Korybko's Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.

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