Sudan And The Drivers For Transitioning To Renewable Energy

PortSudan (Sudanow)_The transition to renewable energy has become a common term with significant global implications, a topic at the forefront of most governments' agendas. While the world's motivations for this transition are generally climate-related, Sudan has national drivers that differ in their origins and concepts. This is especially true given our minimal climate footprint, which, according to the International Energy Agency, does not exceed 0.05%.
So, what are our national drivers for transitioning to renewable energy? To answer this question, we host Dr. Jaafar Ahmed Khalifa, an engineer interested in energy issues.

Engineer Jaafar Ahmed Khalifa began by saying:
"There is a difference in our national concept of transitioning to renewable energy compared to the prevailing global concept. We must acknowledge that the reality imposed by the war-despite its tragedy-is a temporary and transient circumstance."
Therefore, the move towards renewable energy should be based on the strategic drivers that will be discussed throughout this interview.

National Security Driver:
Engineer Jaafar Ahmed pointed out that fossil fuels-oil, gas, and coal-represent the primary energy source for most modern consumption sectors (transportation, electricity generation, agriculture, and the residential sector, especially gas, etc.), meeting 88% of the total fuel consumed in these sectors.
According to an official report, 39% of transport fuel was imported in 2020, as was 50% of cooking gas. He added that indicators confirm this percentage was on a steady rise before the outbreak of the war.

Engineer Jaafar Ahmed Khalifa concluded that energy consumption sectors would be highly sensitive to any security threats or military operations that directly affect oil export ports in the Arabian Gulf or their transport routes in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. An example of this is the period of the Iran-Israel conflict and the Houthi threats to close the Red Sea, which would mean a dramatic rise in prices and direct damage to these sectors.
Therefore, our current reliance on fossil fuels is a weak point that threatens our national security, while transitioning to renewable energy sources grants Sudan a degree of energy independence and enhances our national security.

Economic Driver:
Dr. Jaafar Ahmed Khalifa states that the second driver is an economic one. The primary sources for renewable energy are locally available, so there is no need to spend on importing an expensive commodity. Instead, smaller amounts of money can be used to acquire a local alternative: renewable energy. Consequently, significant amounts of hard currency that were used to bridge the gap in fossil fuels, particularly in the transport and electricity sectors, can be saved.
Engineer Jaafar Ahmed Khalifa explained that the cost per kilowatt-hour for electricity generated from utility-scale solar power has become cheaper than electricity generated from any type of fossil fuel, especially in Sudan due to the abundance of solar radiation in the region.

He also stressed that Sudan possesses all the ingredients for producing and exporting what is known in energy markets as "green hydrogen," which many studies consider the oil of the near future. This is due to the massive financial resources it provides to countries with an abundance of production components.
The essential components for producing green hydrogen are electricity from renewable sources and water. Local production of green hydrogen also allows for the production of green ammonia, a crucial component in the agricultural fertilizer industry, as well as a medium for transporting and storing hydrogen. Its local production also saves the foreign currency spent on importing fertilizer and contributes effectively to the country's exports.

The National Plan for Transitioning to Renewable Energy:
Dr. Jaafar Ahmed Khalifa explained that a national plan for transitioning to renewable energy will undoubtedly play the same role that oil did during the second half of the last century-driving the engine of production and development that leads to the well-being and progress of the entire society. This plan would also effectively contribute to shaping international relations and alliances as is prevalent today.
He pointed out that preparing a national renewable energy plan is not the exclusive concern of the Ministry of Energy; it is a matter for all government ministries and must be done through their concerted efforts.

He emphasized that any delay in this field will turn Sudan into a dumping ground for cheap, non-clean energy equipment and devices, according to the strategies of some countries for transitioning to renewable energy. This will place a heavy burden on our national economy by inflating the fossil fuel import bill.
He linked this to the state of electrical energy and what it has become due to the war, saying:
"Before the war, the country needed about 3,500 megawatts, while the total electricity generation capacity was about 2,799 megawatts. According to engineering reports, 90% of the basic electrical infrastructure has been severely damaged, making it difficult to repair in the short term. Direct losses in the electricity sector are estimated to be between $180 and $200 billion, while indirect losses are estimated at more than $500 billion, equivalent to about 13 times Sudan's annual GDP, which averages about $36 billion."

Moving Towards Renewable Energy:
Regarding wind energy, Dr. Jaafar Adam Musa explained that "the west of Omdurman, extending close to El Fasher, has wind speeds ranging from 8 to 9 m/s, reaching up to 10 m/s in some areas. This makes the capacity factor high, approaching 40% in large areas."
He noted that if a wind farm were established in the west of Omdurman, around the coordinates (15.9, 31.46) on a 9-square-kilometer area, and using well-designed turbines at a height of 100 meters, this farm could operate at a design capacity of 1,350 megawatts, producing approximately 12,000 gigawatt-hours annually, while the design capacity of the Merowe Dam is about 12,500 gigawatt-hours.
As for geothermal energy, he explained that oil exploration studies have proven the existence of six sites in Sudan suitable for using geothermal energy to generate electricity, most notably the Jebel Marra region and the Red Sea Mountains. He added that this source has a higher investment cost compared to solar and wind energy.
Dr. Jaafar Ahmed Khalifa pointed out that the commercial-scale production of ethanol from sugarcane and corn has proven successful in many countries worldwide. Since the cultivation of sugarcane and corn is widely tested in Sudan and considered one of the most successful crops, this increases Sudan's chances of success in producing green hydrogen, which in turn allows for the local production of ammonia fertilizer.
He also noted that ethanol can be used as fuel for cars and kitchens.
He affirmed that the opportunity is ripe for investing in solar energy to help solve the electricity shortage problem, citing that most western states, which are the least fortunate with national grid extensions, have an abundance of sunlight. The amount of solar radiation there is no less than 2,200 kilowatt-hours per square meter annually, which is economically viable.
Engineer Jaafar Ahmed Khalifa praised the "Government of Hope's" decisions to exempt solar panels and batteries from customs duties, considering this a tactical step for a short-term solution. He said he is awaiting another strategic step from the Prime Minister, Professor Kamel Idris: for the state to enter into smart partnerships with friendly countries to localize the manufacturing of solar panels, batteries, and transformers within the country, instead of importing them and wasting hard currency. This is especially feasible given the availability of raw materials and qualified labor, with only the technical side missing, which can be easily provided through these partnerships.

Concluding Vision:
Finally, some readers may view the discussion of renewable energy at this time as a diversion or a luxury, especially since security is the current preoccupation.
Engineer Jaafar Ahmed Khalifa says:
"One of the goals of the real masterminds and architects of the war is to divert us from thinking about such strategic matters and to distract us with the conflict. However, planning in this direction does not require money to be spent; we can leave the money for security concerns. Setting policies and plans only requires our intellectual capital."

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