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During the session on Wednesday, we saw the Light Sweet Crude Oil market plunged below the $65 level, only to turn around and show signs of life. By forming a bit of a hammer, this suggests that we are in fact going to try to stay within the range that we have been in for a while. I find this interesting, because quite frankly, there doesn't seem to be much out there to pick up the oil market for a longer-term move, despite the fact that we are getting trade deals around the world with the Americans.
Overnight, we got deals with Indonesia, the Philippines, and most importantly, Japan. During the session on Wednesday, it looks as if the Americans and the European Union may have finally come to terms as well. This should continue to push the demand for crude oil higher, but we do have a massive amount of supply at the moment as OPEC continues to pump massive amounts into the market. That being said, this might be a fairly tight summer as far as the price range is concerned.
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The technical analysis for this market is about as flat as it gets, as the 50 Day EMA sits just above current pricing but is extraordinarily flat. The 200 Day EMA is sitting just above the $60 level and is relatively flat as well. When you look at this chart, you can see that there is a range that we have been in for a couple of weeks, with the $65 level at the bottom offering support, and the $70 level on top offering resistance. Because of this, I think we are trying to form some type of“summer range” which is fairly common for this market. That being said, traders continue to look at this through the prism of a market that has plenty of buyers in this general vicinity, but whether or not it has any real momentum remains to be seen. This is more or less a short term scalping environment.
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