Russia anticipates huge surge in budget deficit

(MENAFN) Russia’s Finance Ministry has announced that the country’s budget deficit for 2025 is expected to be more than three times its original estimate, due to falling global oil prices and heightened international trade tensions.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov had earlier cautioned about fiscal pressure from declining energy revenues and ongoing trade disputes, which are affecting exports. The updated forecast now puts the 2025 deficit at 1.7% of GDP, a significant rise from the previous 0.5% projection. In financial terms, this equates to 3.8 trillion rubles (approximately $46.3 billion).

Despite the growing deficit, the government says its key spending priorities remain intact—these include social welfare programs, defense and security funding, support for families of military personnel involved in the Ukraine conflict, and investments in technological advancement.

While the economic growth projection for next year remains steady at 2.5%, inflation is now expected to climb to 7.6% by year’s end, up from the previous 4.5% forecast. Additionally, 2025 government expenditures have been raised by 830 billion rubles ($10.1 billion).

The expected average price for Russian oil has been revised downward from $69.70 to $56 per barrel. Oil and gas revenues are forecast at 8.32 trillion rubles ($100.5 billion), equivalent to 3.7% of GDP. Oil prices have slumped over 11% in April alone, driven by oversupply and a sluggish global economy.

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