Why Trump's Global Transformation Might Just Succeed

Latest stories

Trump's firings a shot to the heart of US armed forces

Any new Trump-Kim diplomacy to be judged by results, not rhetoric

​Is Europe rearming? The jury is still out

Elon Musk, in turn, briefly hinted at disabling Starlink services in Ukraine, vital for the country's military communications, before walking back his comments. This pattern of signaling intent is common among Trump allies-before the March 14 executive order was issued to force Voice of America to shut down, Musk publicly called for its closure in February.

To continue with his overhaul, Trump must dismantle much of the entrenched civil service and foreign policy bureaucracy, which he struggled with during his first term . Career officials, including some Republicans like John McCain , resisted his agenda through leaks, delays and policy changes.

Their efforts were complemented by the GOP's disdain for the civil service, which has shifted increasingly left in recent decades. In the final months of his first term, Trump issued Schedule F , an executive order reclassifying certain career positions as political appointments, making them easier to dismiss, before Biden rescinded the order when he took office in January 2021.

Dismantling a decades-old political apparatus is no simple feat. Since World War II, Washington has built a vast ecosystem of NGOs, think tanks and development agencies that shape US foreign policy and diplomacy.

Even after 9/11, as President George W Bush leaned heavily on hard power with the launch of the Global War on Terrorism, his administration also introduced initiatives like the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), to maintain international goodwill while waging unpopular wars.

These programs, alongside organizations like the Peace Corps, the US Trade and Development Agency and others mentioned previously, were all repurposed by various administrations, awarded lucrative contracts, and had close ties to policymakers. Over time, a revolving door of agencies, contractors and policymakers has reinforced and expanded this system, consolidating funding and influence.

Until 2006 , USAID's website openly stated,“The principal beneficiary of America's foreign assistance programs has always been the United States,” with nearly 80% of USAID contracts and grants flowing to US firms.

By 2018 , of the $48 billion in official development assistance (ODA), 21% went to governments, 20% to nonprofit organizations, 34% to multilateral organizations and 25% elsewhere.

Despite reaching nearly $80 billion in 2023 under the Biden administration, ODA still accounted for just 1.17% of the federal budget. Trump's efforts to undermine ODA may not just be limited to cutting its spending but also extend to dismantling the core institutions that have driven American foreign policy for decades.

Now, in his second term, his purge of the civil service is far more aggressive. After labeling institutions like USIP and the Inter-American Foundation as politicized and aligned with Democratic priorities , Trump has made it harder for Democrats to justify billions of dollars for projects abroad-especially given longstanding concerns over ODA's efficiency.

In 2015 , the acting deputy inspector general flagged USAID's“chronic, systemic weaknesses,” citing poor oversight, weak risk management and human capital issues.

By 2017, as Trump intensified scrutiny, the Carnegie Endowment reported that USAID“lacked programmatic focus” and found both the State Department and USAID were overstretched, with little evaluation of their effectiveness. Aid often went to corrupt governments, was too small to make an impact, and failed to give Washington meaningful leverage.

USIP, originally designed for conflict resolution when introduced in 1984, has increasingly been viewed by critics as a vehicle for nation-building . Similarly, AFRICOM, established in 2007 to promote US national security interests in Africa, has turned its focus toward counterterrorism , with limited results. Aid recipients also face restrictions, often required to purchase goods and services from donor countries like the United States.

Other areas of ODA, such as global media outreach, promote a more traditional approach favored by Democrats and established foreign policy experts, have also lost their strategic edge as rival powers have undercut their effectiveness.

US-backed media outlets like Voice of America, Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty have seen their influence wane amid competition from alternative international networks like Al Jazeera, RT and China's state-run media.

These competitors have reshaped the global information sphere, while decentralized information and social media platforms have proven more effective at reaching audiences.

Meanwhile, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has demonstrated the effectiveness of direct infrastructure development investment, offering countries tangible benefits in exchange for strategic concessions, such as port access for Chinese ships. Russia and Israel , in contrast, have shown how unilateral military force can be used to advance foreign policy objectives.

Trump views America's lingering military and economic dominance as key tools for reasserting US power in a changing global order. His more aggressive military stance and mercantilist economic approach prioritize coercion over multilateralism, seeking immediate and concrete gains in the national interest.

While previous administrations invested in steady economic and diplomatic maneuvering, Trump's strategy emphasizes swift tariffs, threats and direct pressure to drive markets and provoke immediate reactions-an approach unpalatable to the ingrained culture of the current foreign policy bureaucracy.

If successful in reshaping American foreign policy, Trump will force a departure from Washington's historical promotion of free trade. Former presidents like Bill Clinton, Bush and Barack Obama all reduced tariffs. While Biden eased some with the EU, he raised them on China .