Upcoming Israel-Hezbollah war becomes unavoidable

(MENAFN) The prospect of renewed conflict between Lebanon and Israel is no longer a matter of "if" but "when." While Israel has gained some tactical successes in the ongoing hostilities, it lacks the ability to decisively defeat Hezbollah. As Israel aims to maintain operational freedom in Lebanon, the next outbreak of violence will likely be even more severe than the one halted by the ceasefire on November 27.

While much of the analysis of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, which flared up in September 2024, traces its roots to the October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel, the deeper historical context is often overlooked. Following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel’s immediate response aimed to inflict harsh punishment on Gaza’s civilian population. On October 9, Hezbollah began retaliating by targeting Israeli surveillance sites, marking the start of their involvement.

The Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon killed four Hezbollah members, which led to Hezbollah's retaliation, escalating tensions. At this point, Hezbollah's leader, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, understood that his group would need to support Palestinian factions, although they avoided wanting to drag Lebanon into a full-scale war. Nasrallah made it clear that while Hamas would prevail, Lebanon's involvement would be limited.

Between October 2023 and September 2024, Israel was responsible for the overwhelming majority of attacks, killing 752 people in Lebanon, while Hezbollah’s actions claimed the lives of 33 Israelis. The last significant war between Lebanon and Israel occurred in 2006, when Hezbollah’s strategy led to an Israeli retreat and became the first Arab military victory over Israel.

This victory was made possible by a power imbalance, tactical victories, and Hezbollah’s careful planning. Despite ongoing tensions, including Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty and the assassination of Hezbollah fighters in Syria, a major war was avoided. In 2019, however, Israel began constructing a security barrier along the Lebanese border, including land grabs that worsened tensions. By 2023, the annexation of parts of Ghajjar village and regular incursions into Lebanon for land clearing escalated the situation. These actions have only heightened the likelihood of a larger, more destructive conflict in the near future.

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