US-Pakistan Ties Under Strain As New Trump Administration Ignores Islamabad's Outreach Attempts

Pakistan has been closely observing developments in Washington, D.C., following the inauguration of President Donald J. trump on January 20. Despite multiple diplomatic efforts by Islamabad to establish communication with the new administration, there has yet to be formal engagement between the two sides. Pakistan's Interior Minister, Mohsin Naqvi, was in the U.S. on the day of the inauguration but did not receive an invitation to the event. Instead, he attended a gathering hosted by the New federal State of China (NFSC), a group known for its opposition to the Chinese Communist Party. This meeting has reportedly created diplomatic sensitivities between Islamabad and Beijing.

Observers note that while Islamabad awaits engagement with the new U.S. leadership, India's Minister of External Affairs, Dr. S. Jaishankar, was present at the inauguration as a front-row invitee and has already held meetings with senior officials, including the Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor. In response, Pakistan has sought the assistance of Washington-based lobbying firms and has recently dispatched a delegation led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari to facilitate discussions with the new administration.

So far, the Trump administration has not signaled a strong interest in prioritizing formal engagement with Pakistan. Analysts suggest that the country does not currently feature as a primary foreign policy focus for the new U.S. government. Additionally, individuals close to President Trump have publicly called for the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and expressed concerns regarding Pakistan's governance, particularly its civil-military relations. Reports indicate that Pakistan's Army Chief, General Syed Asim Munir, has urged the government to establish official channels with the Trump administration, particularly in matters related to defense and security cooperation.

Following Naqvi's visit to Washington, the government has looked to strengthen diplomatic engagement through alternative channels, including leveraging the Pakistan Peoples Party's (PPP) connections in the U.S. However, analysts suggest that these efforts may, at best, result in limited diplomatic engagements such as participation in policy events or high-level meetings. The U.S.-Pakistan relationship has undergone significant changes in recent years, with evolving strategic priorities. This shift was already evident during the previous administration of President Joe Biden, who did not engage directly with Pakistani leaders throughout his tenure. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also did not visit Islamabad, despite making frequent visits to other regional players, including India.

Pakistani leadership, including President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, promptly extended congratulatory messages to President Trump upon his inauguration. Prime Minister Shehbaz also sent a letter expressing Pakistan's willingness to enhance bilateral ties. However, the new U.S. administration has yet to respond publicly to these diplomatic gestures. So far, officials from the Trump administration have not made direct statements on Pakistan, but key decisions have implications for the country, including the suspension of USAID programs. The reduction in foreign assistance could pose economic challenges for Pakistan, given its reliance on external funding for development initiatives.

Another decision affecting Pakistan is the Trump administration's temporary suspension of the Afghan refugee settlement program. The executive order has paused the Special Immigration Visa and Afghan refugee admissions process for 90 days. Pakistan is currently hosting approximately 25,000 Afghan refugees who were scheduled for relocation to the U.S., primarily comprising individuals who previously worked with U.S. military forces and American contractors in Afghanistan. Under a previous arrangement with the Biden administration, the relocation process was expected to be completed by September 2025. However, the policy review by the new administration has introduced uncertainty for those awaiting resettlement.

The shift in U.S.-Pakistan relations follows broader geopolitical developments, including the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. In recent years, U.S. engagement with Pakistan has transitioned from traditional security-focused cooperation to areas such as climate resilience and trade. However, Washington increasingly views Islamabad's close economic and strategic alignment with Beijing as a factor shaping bilateral dynamics. As Pakistan continues to strengthen its partnerships under China's Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), U.S. policymakers have recalibrated their engagement with Islamabad.

Analysts note that under President Trump's foreign policy approach, the U.S. may place additional emphasis on Pakistan's role in regional security, including issues related to counterterrorism and its relationship with China. Some reports suggest that Washington could exert diplomatic pressure on Islamabad regarding concerns over governance and human rights. The first Trump administration had previously taken a firm stance on Pakistan, including a tweet in January 2018 in which the former president criticized Islamabad's handling of security cooperation. This led to the suspension of $1.3 billion in U.S. security assistance to Pakistan. However, cooperation continued in some areas, particularly in facilitating negotiations for the U.S.-Taliban peace agreement.

In the current administration, the scope of U.S.-Pakistan cooperation appears to be narrowing. Afghanistan-related security concerns remain relevant, but the U.S. no longer relies on Pakistan for logistical support following the troop withdrawal. Consequently, analysts observe fewer avenues for high-level engagement between the two countries.

There is also speculation that President Trump may raise concerns over Pakistan's internal political landscape, including the status of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Reports suggest that both leaders maintained diplomatic interactions during Trump's previous term, particularly regarding Afghanistan. If the U.S. were to publicly call for Khan's release, it could create political challenges for Pakistan's government and military leadership.

Additionally, the new administration continues to monitor global security risks, including nuclear proliferation concerns. Some U.S. policymakers have previously expressed apprehensions over Pakistan's nuclear security, citing the potential risks of instability. There is also speculation that Pakistan's approach to regional conflicts and allegations of support for militant groups could become a point of contention in U.S. policy discussions.

As the new U.S. administration defines its foreign policy strategy, the trajectory of U.S.-Pakistan relations remains uncertain. While Islamabad continues its outreach efforts, the level of engagement from Washington is expected to be shaped by broader geopolitical interests and regional security priorities.

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