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The Aussie dollar initially did try to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but gave up gains rather quickly as the US dollar continues to strengthen against most things. Ultimately, this is a market that's hanging on by a thread and I find that interesting considering that we are heading into the non-farm payroll announcement on Friday. With that being said, we need to be cautious about your position sizing because of the potential volatility that is coming.
Non-Farm Payroll
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The non-farm payroll announcement obviously will cause a lot of volatility in the greenback, and I think a lot of people will be watching to see how it behaves. If the number is more hawkish than expected, meaning that the US continues to add more jobs than anticipated, that could send the US dollar higher against most currencies and by extension, this pair lower. In that environment, we could see the Australian dollar drive down to the 0.6350 level, possibly even the 0.63 level. On the other hand, if the labor numbers come in weaker than anticipated, the Australian dollar could benefit from that rising to challenge the crucial 0.6550 level. Anything above that level then opens up the possibility of a significant bounce.
And at that point in time, I might become a little bit more bullish of the Aussie dollar. As things stand right now though, I would anticipate that most rallies would probably be faded as soon as they show signs of exhaustion, which is exactly what's happened over the last several weeks. I don't know if the fundamentals have changed at all, but the jobs report could give us the catalyst for traders to start to look in other directions. In this environment, you are probably better off letting the market settle down before risking any of your hard-earned trading capital going forward. However, we may see clear signs by the end of the session Chart by TradingView
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