China Steaming Toward Nuclear-Powered Carrier Capability

Additionally, nuclear-powered carriers are seen as prestige assets, reinforcing China's image as a global superpower. Nuclear power's strategic advantages, such as increased sortie rates and sustained operations without refueling, make it a compelling choice for China.

However, Héloïse Fayet and Jean-Louis Lozier mention in a November 2023 report for Institut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI) that nuclear propulsion, while offering strategic advantages like extended endurance and stealth, requires substantial expertise and a highly specialized infrastructure.

Fayet and Lozier point out that nuclear propulsion technology is complex because of factors such as the need for robust safety protocols, particularly radiation protection for crews in confined spaces, and the extreme conditions vessels face, such as rapid speed changes and resistance to shocks.

They mention engineering and operational demands are compounded by a need for ongoing expertise, typically sustained through continuous civil-military nuclear collaboration, which few nations possess.

While a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier may provide China with global power projection capabilities, particularly in the Indian Ocean and Pacific, it may be limited by a lack of resupply and logistics bases. While China has been investing significantly in replenishment-at-sea (RAS) capabilities, these do not replace friendly ports and bases.

In a May 2024 War on the Rocks article , Prashant Hosur Suhas and Christopher Colley mention that despite China's significant naval expansion, including advanced warships and aircraft carriers, its ability to project power into the Indian Ocean is constrained by logistical challenges and geographical disadvantages.

Suhas and Colley mention China faces difficulties in maintaining a sustained naval presence due to the lack of nearby friendly ports and the need for at-sea replenishment. They note India's strategic advantage in the Indian Ocean is underscored by its geographical proximity, established naval infrastructure, and strategic partnerships with the US.

They say that although China is working to overcome these challenges, India's current advantages in the Indian Ocean will likely persist for the foreseeable future.

Further, Isaac Kardon mentions in a February 2023 Foreign Policy brief that China lacks the extensive network of military bases and alliances that underpin US influence there.

Kardon points out that amid growing US-China rivalry, China perceives an increased need to protect its overseas interests independently, pushing to develop a military foothold in the Indian Ocean.

He says that while China has only one official overseas base in Djibouti, its isolated location limits its operational utility, primarily serving non-combat missions like counterpiracy and humanitarian support.

He says that to extend its reach, China relies heavily on dual-use commercial ports-over 25 in the region-as logistical hubs for the People's Liberation Army–Navy's (PLA-N) expanding“far seas” mission. However, he says China's economic dependence on Indian Ocean shipping routes remains a strategic vulnerability.

Kardon says the lack of a dedicated military network hinders China's ability to project power and safeguard critical sea lanes, exposing its interests to potential disruptions and crises as it attempts to establish a sustainable, independent security posture across the Indian Ocean.

In the far-flung islands of the Pacific, Brian Harding and Camilla Pohle mention in a July 2022 US Institute of Peace article that China's strategic ambitions in the Pacific islands have intensified, marked by a security pact that year with the Solomon Islands that allows Chinese naval vessels to dock and replenish.

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According to Harding and Pohle, this move parallels historical precedents, such as Imperial Japan's pre-World War II base constructions, and raises significant regional security concerns.

However, they point out that China's efforts to establish a military presence in the Pacific have faced resistance, as seen in Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea, where local governments opted for partnerships with Australia and the US instead.

They say the Solomon Islands' decision to drop Taiwan in favor of China in 2019 facilitated direct security engagement, culminating in the controversial pact. They mention the agreement, while officially aimed at maintaining stability and protecting Chinese interests, is perceived as a step towards a permanent Chinese military foothold.

Further, Grant Newsham mentions in an article this month for Asia Times that China has strategically positioned itself in the Pacific for decades, using political warfare to gain influence.

Newsham notes that Chinese-linked businesses have established a presence in critical locations like Tinian and Saipan, potentially undermining US military efforts.

He says that in Yap state, both the US and China are building airfields, with China framing its projects as tourism-related. He also states that China is investing in strategic locations like Angaur and Kanton, often under the guise of civilian projects.

Newsham argues that while the US focuses on military infrastructure, it must also counter China's political warfare to maintain regional influence.

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