Japan Leadership Scramble A Risk For Korea Relations

He pointed to a consensus among Japanese strategists that relations were essential for Japan's own national security. Green believes that the most likely successors had“no reason to interrupt the progress being made with Korea.”

Certainly, some of the candidates are wedded to a
continuation
of Kishida's foreign and security policies. Most prominent are candidates with the most experience in dealing with foreign policy-Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, LDP Secretary General and former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, former Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and former Foreign Minister Taro Kono.

If current Japanese polling is to be believed, however, none of these candidates are likely to make the runoff.
Polls
show the three most likely candidates, along with a fourth who is a longer shot.

The three are Koizumi, the youngest and least experienced candidate; Shigeru Ishiba, former defense minister and a perennial contender who has public support but less from party bosses and parliamentarians; and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, the most hardline right-wing figure in the race and a close supporter of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The dark horse, also hailing from the Abe faction, is former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi.

Among these, the choices with the most likely negative implications for Korea-Japan relations are Koizumi and Takaichi. Both are regular visitors to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, visits that routinely create ire in Korea and draw official protests.

Koizumi, who is following in the footsteps of his father in this regard, has indicated he will continue this practice as prime minister. Takaichi, who visited the shrine on August 15 as a cabinet minister, has also clearly stated her intention to visit as Japan's leader.

Koizumi is somewhat of an enigma when it comes to foreign policy. His
platform
contains broad and vague statements on the importance of“strong diplomacy,” moving ahead on defense spending, strengthening the US-Japan alliance and security coordination with“like-minded countries like Australia,” and support for a“free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Koizumi calls for summit-level dialogue with China and North Korea-again with no mention of South Korea. Koizumi is considered an internationalist, as he has studied in the United States and worked with Mike Green briefly at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. But other than a brief stint as environment minister, he has no government experience.

In contrast, the views of Takaichi, who would be Japan's first female leader if elected, are better known. She is a member of Nippon Kaigi, the well-known grouping of right-wing conservatives with strong revisionist views on issues of wartime history.

She has challenged the
Kono statement on comfort women , raising questions regarding its accuracy in admitting the Imperial Japanese Army's role in coercing Korean and other women into sexual servitude during the war. At the time of President Yoon's election, she opposed Kishida's
attendance
at his inauguration.

Takaichi has been more careful lately and has been supportive of efforts to improve relations.“We have built an extremely good relationship,” Takaichi
said
when announcing her candidacy on September 9.

“Prime Minister Kishida has made a great deal of effort. Given that the security environment is said to be the worst in the world, Japan, the United States and South Korea should strengthen their security ties.”

However, Takaichi, in a somewhat subtlely critical comment, added,“In recent years, Japanese music has been able to be broadcast freely in Korea. I am pleased that nostalgic Showa era songs are popular in Korea. We will deepen our cooperation in areas where we can do so.”

Perhaps the most potentially positive choice for Korea-Japan relations would be Ishiba, who has a reputation as a defense hawk but is also the most willing to take positions opposed to that of former Prime Minister Abe.

Some consider him a De Gaulle-style nationalist who is willing to take stances independent of the United States and more interested in engaging with Asia. In this campaign, he has
called
for the creation of an Asian collective security organization and stressed the need to improve ties with China.

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On South Korea, Ishiba has been much more forthright about acknowledging Japan's colonial mistake and supportive of closer ties.“It is of utmost importance now for Japan to build a solid relationship of trust with South Korea,” he said in a
December 2023 interview .

Ishiba departs from conservative views in believing that the annexation of Korea in 1910 was illegitimate.“There's no need to flatter Korea or to lay out the logic of the past, but we should admit that what was a mistake was a mistake,” he said.“We must redouble our emphasis on the fact that it is vital for this region that Japan and South Korea understand one another and cooperate.”

At this point, the future of Korea-Japan relations is uncertain. While there are powerful forces in favor of continuity, there is serious potential for a step backward, if not a return to the dysfunction of the past. Japan's leadership election has now become an added and significant factor for uncertainty.

The election of a candidate such as Takaichi, who will feed the perception that Japan opposes reconciliation on wartime and colonial history issues, is likely to undermine the progress made by President Yoon and feed those within South Korea who are critical of his conciliatory approach to Japan.

Daniel Sneider is a lecturer of international policy and East Asian studies at Stanford University and a non-resident distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America. The views expressed here are the author's alone.

Republished with permission of KEI, which is registered under the FARA as an agent of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a public corporation established by the government of the Republic of Korea. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC. Read the original here.

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