Kamikaze Drones Changing Rules And Costs Of Ukraine War

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Ukrainian OWA drones struck a Russian airbase in Volgograd on August 22, starting a large fire and secondary explosions from munitions stored at the site. Ukraine has been using long-range drones to target Russian airbases, industrial sites , and oil infrastructure for months.

Russian authorities have also been scrambling to deal with drone attacks, putting more air defense systems around Vladimir Putin's private residence and erecting nets around refineries hoping to catch an incoming drone.

Why are OWA drones so important?

Military forces have used drones for decades, but OWA drones are a particular and developing threat. As I outline in my recent study , OWA drones can use inexpensive navigation systems to strike targets hundreds of kilometers away with relative accuracy.

They have smaller warheads and are usually slower than traditional missiles, but they are simpler and cheaper to manufacture in bulk. This means that a weapon with extraordinary range and precision is now available to countries (and armed groups ) that would have struggled previously to build and maintain a fleet of missiles.

Both Ukraine and Russia started adopting OWA drones in the summer of 2022. Russia's first major drone attack was in October 2022 , but Ukraine had used them earlier.

In June 2022, an improvised OWA drone, possibly made from a modified commercial drone bought online, struck a Russian oil refinery in Rostov, causing significant damage.

Creating advantage

Until late 2023, Russia's use of drones was significantly larger than Ukraine's. Russia's advantage was that they could import their Shahed drones from Iran and later produce them under license in their own factories.

In 2023, Russia launched thousands of drones at Ukraine's civilian infrastructure including at energy substations and grain silos . The drones, along with Russia's missiles, led Kiev to ask for air defense assistance from its allies and adopt innovative ways, such as acoustic sensors, to shoot them down without running short of ammunition. Ukrainian companies were also developing their own OWA drones to strike back.

Ukraine has to rely on drones it has built itself or bought from private contractors to avoid restrictions on how weapons supplied by its allies are used on Russian territory. They are often aimed at Russia's defense and oil sectors.

At the end of 2023, Ukraine began an ambitious drone campaign aimed at striking oil facilities (an enormous source of revenue for Russia), airfields (which host aircraft and munitions used against Ukraine), and even the factories where Russia produces its drones.

OWA drones are easy to make and proliferate compared to missiles and are starting to be used widely. The UK has had to deal with OWA drones twice in 2024 when protecting vessels from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and helping blunt Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel in April.

Facilities with US personnel across the Middle East have also come under attack from OWA drones launched by militant groups. Even advanced military forces will face similar challenges to Russia and Ukraine, such as shooting down large numbers of drones without running out of air defense missiles.