(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Elnur Enveroglu
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As the saying goes,“There is no smoke without
fire...”
Some Iran-based news sources have started publishing
hearsay about the secret deal between Tehran and Yerevan regarding
arms trade. Although the source of this information has not
officially confirmed its veracity, it is alleged that the underhand
dealings between the two countries were worth $500
million.
Considering the budget allocated by Armenia to the military
sector in the last 4 years, France, Europe and India can be added
to the list of active deals.
First, it is necessary to look at the reasons that led Armenia
to arm intensively. After the Second Garabagh War, Armenia, which
has suffered considerable economic decline, prioritized the
strengthening of the military sector. Experts mostly characterise
it in two ways: In the first reason, Armenia's not digesting its
humiliating defeat in the 44-day fight in 2020 and the loss of
Garabagh, which was held under occupation for decades, is shown as
the main reason. The second reason is associated with some Western
forces inciting Armenia to arm Yerevan under the guise of
"Azerbaijan's sudden attack plan". By justifying itself, Armenia,
on the other hand, based more on the claim stated in the latter
one, says that it armed itself in order to protect its territories
from a so-called“possible attack” amidst a continuous offer by
Baku for peace negotiation.
Literally, there are different types of wars. Some of them are
offensive, and some are provocative. If we look again at September
27, 2020, we can say that it happened because of a sudden attack by
the Armenian side. However, in today's conditions, Armenia's
tendency of rapidly arming itself depicts the impact of some
external forces on processes.
It means that the name of neighbouring Iran is mentioned in this
list, whether it is true or not. According to an Iranian source,
among the weapons sold to Armenia are military drones including
Shahed 136, Shahed 129, Shahed 197, Mohajer, and air defence
missile systems like 3rd Khordad, Majid, 15th Khordad, and
Arman.
Can the Iran-Armenia arms deal be interpreted as an
element of influence on Baku-Tel Aviv relations?
Armenia does not have the real military potential to fight
another war. However, the willingness of foreign forces to arm
Armenia in today's conditions is more political than the intention
to expand its military arsenal. In any case, India and Iran can be
applied to this category in the background of Azerbaijan-Pakistan,
and Azerbaijan-Israel relations. France is also among the activists
of arms suppliers in this regard, but its zeal is more related to
its desire for the South Caucasus.
Moreover, Iran, according to its usual character, cannot escape
the influence of Israel-Azerbaijani relations, and this somehow
makes Tehran stand out as a typically jealous party. Presenting
itself as a so-called friendly and brotherly country, official
Tehran tries to express its feelings through Armenia. In this case,
the permanent issue of Armenia-Azerbaijani relations shows that it
is mostly in favour of Iran, France and other parties.
Armenia's growing military debts against the backdrop of
deepening rifts with Moscow
The reasons for the increase in Armenia's national debt in the
last five years are associated with the fact that the pro-Western
Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan has brought relations with Russia to a
strained level. However, in the last thirty years, Armenia's
military arsenal consisted almost exclusively of Moscow's
assistance. According to some sources, the information on the
military debts of Armenia until 2023 is 400 million dollars.
Pashinyan claims that since Russia did not deliver the promised
weapons in exchange for the amount it received from Armenia, this
debt is considered to have already been written off.
Despite this, since 2021, Armenia's increasing focus on the
Western market has also had a serious impact on the national debt.
For example, according to the statistics of 2023, Armenia's
national debt surpassed $12 billion, rising by 1.9% since the
beginning of the year. The country's debt-to-GDP ratio now stands
at 48.1%.
Armenian sources say that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's
cabinet dissolved the Armenian National Interests Fund, a
state-owned enterprise meant to co-invest in major projects
alongside foreign entrepreneurs, amid mounting allegations of
corruption and mismanagement.
However, Armenian political analysts, who said that Pashinyan
looted the state budget, connected the increasing deficit in
Armenia's state budget in recent days with military expenses. The
point is that Western sources confirm this in the same way.
As reported by several statistics, the military expenditure in
Armenia increased to 1329.50 USD million in 2023 from 795.20 USD
million in 2022. Looking back to the period of the last three
decades, the military expenditure in Armenia averaged 322.12 USD
million from 1992 until 2023, reaching an all-time high of 1329.50
USD million in 2023 and a record low of 0.00 USD million in
1992.
The obtained figures show that Armenia is heavily indebted to
the West and beyond and involved in a dangerous game. Yerevan,
which bought weapons through more credit loans, is going to sink
into debt due to the panic. The situation he is in seriously
endangers the future of both the country and the region. Although
Armenia is not aware of this, external observations are already
making alarming predictions about Armenia in the near future.
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