Why Iran Fears Trump 2.0 More Than Most

With Iran's economy still weakened, Trump's potential return could bring a new wave of pressure. Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture has noted , for instance, that a Trump return will cause Iran's oil exports to“suffer again.”

The head of Iran's Parliament Research Center has also highlighted the country's current budget deficit of US$3.7 billion, warning a Trump return would necessitate being ready for“increased sanctions pressure and an economic shock.”

Another economics expert, Morteza Afghe, struck a more dire note when he warned of a potential“collapse of Iran's economy .” Due to Iran's more strident anti-Western policies under President Ebrahim Raisi and the dominance of radical factions in parliament, Afghe believes Trump would be even more determined to escalate his“maximum pressure” campaign on the country.

There are concrete signs of this nervousness already – Trump's sweep of the Republican nominating contests earlier this year coincided with a 20% fall in the value of the Iranian rial .

On the security front, Trump's possible return is reminding the Iranian leadership of a significant loss under his presidency: the 2020 killing of General Qassem Soleimani , the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, in a US airstrike.

When he was killed, Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, described Soleimani as the architect behind the Iran-backed militia networks in the Middle East, known as the“axis of resistance.” Khamenei also said he“bows to Soleimani” for his achievements with the Quds Force. This illustrates the profound impact the US strike had on Iran's security interests.

A recent Israeli airstrike on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria's capital this month also killed seven members of the Quds force, including two generals. This led to Iran's unprecedented retaliatory attack against Israel, which Trump responded to by reposting a threatening tweet from 2018.

He also said at a rally:

Given this rhetoric and the heightened tensions with Israel, a potential Trump return could make the Iranian leadership feel even more vulnerable. It could, for instance, lead to increased US or Israeli military action against Iranian proxy militias in Iraq and Syria, or potentially bolder strikes against Iran itself.

Even before the recent Israel-Iran tensions, Mehdi Mohammadi, an advisor to Iran's parliament speaker on strategic affairs, said Iran's national security could face“very difficult” years under another Trump presidency, reintroducing the prospect of“maximum threats” against Tehran.

Elections were held earlier this year for Iran's parliament and the Assembly of Experts, the body that appoints the supreme leader. The official voter turnout was reported at just 41%. In the capital of Tehran, turnout was only 24% , the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic.

This marks the third time in four years - including two parliamentary elections and one presidential election - in which voter turnout was below 50%. Prior to 2020, voter turnout typically exceeded 60% or even 70%.

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily ReportStart your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly ReportA weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

Given these declining rates of voter participation and three major, nationwide protest movements since 2017, Iran's leadership is in the midst of the most serious legitimacy crisis in the Islamic Republic's history.

This has coincided with the 2021 election of the hardliner Raisi as president and this year's election, in which radical factions strengthened their position by winning many seats in the new parliament.

These lawmakers want Iran to more forcefully challenge the US and its allies and implement even harsher restrictions on domestic life, including stronger internet censorship and enforcement of Sharia law.

Within the country, media outlets have suggested the rise of unpopular, ultraconservative political figures could further deepen public dissatisfaction with the regime. In such conditions, possible economic repercussions from a second Trump presidency could fuel a new wave of nationwide protests.

And if Trump is elected, Iran's supreme leader would be about 86 years old when he took office. A transfer of power in Iran during a Trump presidency could bring even more uncertainty at a very critical time in Iranian politics.

Amin Naeni is PhD candidate at Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .