Think China's PLA Is A Paper Tiger? Think Again

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The US Navy can transit the area – as can the US Air Force – and even conduct exercises. But it's like the New York Police Department going through Times Square back in the bad old days before Mayor Giuliani cleaned things up. The cops controlled only the space they actually occupied, and when they left the“bad guys” filled in and took control.

Even now the PLA is shadowing (“escorting”) US ships and aircraft through the South China Sea.

China televises the firing of ballistic missiles into 'training' areas around Taiwan and in Japan's EEZ in Okinawa Prefecture, August 4, 2022. Photo: Weibo It only has to be good once

Nothing to worry about? One of these days a US Navy destroyer skipper will have a dozen anti-ship missiles headed his way – at supersonic speed – and 12 seconds to respond. He might be forgiven for thinking the PLA is not a paper tiger and is more than just a“near-peer competitor.”

But here's something to keep in mind when you consider the People's Liberation Army: A military only has to be good enough to do a certain thing, at a certain place, at a certain time.

Recall the Falklands War in 1982. The British outclassed the Argentinians in nearly every respect. Argentine hardware was often obsolete and many of the troops were“draftees.”

Yet, the Argentines almost won. And they would have won if a few more 500-pound bombs and torpedoes detonated and sunk Royal Navy ships.

Britain also had the good fortune that Margaret Thatcher was prime minister. The Falklands are about 200 miles from the Argentine coast at the closest point. Taiwan is only 90 miles from the Chinese mainland.

A Chinese newspaper reports on military exercises conducted by the Chinese military around Taiwan on April 10, 2023. Photo: Kyodo China's n ot going after Des Moines

If it's just Taiwan you're after – as opposed to Des Moines – it looks possible.

And an attack on Taiwan won't just be an amphibious assault. It will also include massive and accurate missile barrages, total air and sea control, aggressive electronic warfare and cyber warfare. And internet and comms links will be cut. Fifth columnists will be causing chaos. And it will include threatening the US with nuclear war.

China has practiced and prepared for all of this – and for years.

Sure, Xi Jinping would rather get Taiwan by not fighting, but force is on the menu and Xi has said so. It's comforting – but dangerous – to assume that Xi and the Chinese just aren't good enough, or are too frightened, or are just bluffing – which is the most commonly held belief in DC and even in Taipei.

One detects the same sort of condescension as in 1950 when the experts – not least in General
Douglas MacArthur 's headquarters – insisted:“They (the PLA) will never come across the Yalu.”

But they did. And nobody has ever heard a Korean War veteran say he wanted to fight the Chinese again.

You'd think US Marines, of all people, would know better. This writer recalls them rolling their eyes circa 2016 at the idea that Chinese equivalents of US Marine and US Navy amphibious units (the MEU/ARGs) would be making the rounds in the Indo-Pacific before too long. Just not our equals, you know.

The Chinese navy is turning out amphibious ships at a rapid clip and could deploy two or three similar amphibious task forces if they wanted to.

A Chinese naval vessel departs from Vladivostok in the Russian Far East for a joint patrol with the Russian Navy. Photo: TASS News Agency As for the PLA's lack of warfighting experience...

Proper training can also make up for that.

And don't forget that the US military has fewer and fewer combat veterans. And none of them have experience in high-end warfare against a high-end opponent in a largely maritime domain. Fighting Iraqis and the Taliban is not the same the same thing as going against a modern opponent. Nor were those campaigns huge successes.

It also helps to recognize that China has been conducting non-kinetic warfare against the United States and the West for decades. Political warfare , economic warfare, propaganda , elite capture , cyberattacks, espionage , chemical (fentanyl ) and biological warfare (Covid?) are part of China's“unrestricted warfare .”

It is all intended to soften up the enemy and undermine his will and ability to resist. Kinetic warfare is only used if needed to finish things off.

But doesn't the US have allies ?

Yes, it does, and America's allies are a huge benefit even if military capabilities are uneven and political interests are not always aligned.

But China also has allies:
North Korea ,
Russia , Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba. And much of the Global South is at least sympathetic to the People's Republic of China.

These may not be the most lovable countries, not always the best of friends – but together they can cause trouble for the United States and its partners.

And, for now, their strategic interests align.