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In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon in order to wipe out the Palestine Liberation Organization and establish a pro-Israeli Christian government in Beirut. Neither objective was achieved.

Hezbollah becomes Lebanon's strongest force

Since its foundation in 1920, Lebanon and its politics have been dominated by a sectarian system in which government and state positions are divided among the 18 officially recognized religious sects, most notably Sunnis, Maronite Christians, Druze and Shiites. Each sect has mandated representation in government.

Today, the Shiite population is the largest sect in the country, making up 30% to 40% of the general population – but no exact figure is available because the sensitivity of the matter has meant no official census has been conducted since 1932.

For decades, Lebanon's sectarian system has resulted in what scholars call“hybrid sovereignty .” Political elites who represent their sects in the sectarian system are both part of the state apparatus and also operate outside of it by providing their constituents services that are normally the responsibility of government, from providing marriage licenses to armed protection.

Hezbollah formed in 1982 with Iranian and Syrian support to fight Israel after its invasion. It is by far the country's strongest political, socio-economic and military force . This is due to the support of Iran and a strong and cohesive internal social structure among its Shiite followers in the country. Not all Shiites identify with Hezbollah, but no doubt many of them sympathize with its causes.

Hezbollah also operates within the hybrid structure of the sectarian system by playing an integral part in the government but also by functioning as a state unto itself. For example, it boasts its own military force, which is far stronger than the formal Lebanese army, and provides social, educational and economic services to Shiites.

In fact, no group has benefited more from this sectarian hybrid system than Hezbollah.

Anti-government protests broke out in October 2019. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Hassan Ammar Lebanon in free fall

Despite the fractured political system and weak state, Lebanon has managed to retain some stability and vitality, even under the duress of the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011.

Things took a severe turn in October 2019, when years of Ponzi-like financial mismanagement, excessive borrowing and a sharp decline in remittances from abroad led the Lebanese economy to melt down . The World Bank has described it as one of the worst economic crises since the mid-19th century .

The crisis sparked large-scale protests across the country, known as the“October 17 revolution,” in which the Lebanese demanded social and economic justice, an end to corruption and the dismantling of the sectarian political system. As a result, foreign donors were alarmed, foreign currency flowed out of the country, banks shut their doors to depositors, the government defaulted on its debt and the local currency collapsed.

A massive blast at the Beirut port in August 2020, which killed 225 people and caused billions of dollars in damage, further exacerbated the socioeconomic and political conditions in the country. And since October 2022, the Lebanese political system has been in complete gridlock , given the inability of the political class to agree on a new president and a new government.

Hezbollah has been the least affected by the national crisis among political forces in the country and has emerged as a staunch defender of the political system that nurtured it.

Some already see Lebanon as a failed state , so the last thing the country needs is to become part of another war.

A shell from Israeli artillery explodes over Dahaira, a Lebanese village that borders Israel, on October 16, 2023. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Hussein Malla 'Back to the Stone Age'?

But whether Lebanon becomes a part of the war, ultimately, is not up to the Lebanese government.