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Le Gesda peut-il positionner Genève sur les défis du futur? (original)
The Geneva Science and diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA) Foundation held its third annual summit this week at CERN's Science Gateway, a new exhibition and education centre that recently opened in the Swiss city.
GESDA's agenda included panel discussions on future scientific breakthroughs – in the fields of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and neurotechnology – and their consequences for humans, as well as for governance systems. Around 1,200 politicians, scientists, diplomats, and representatives of the private sector attended in person and online.
Launched in 2019 by the Swiss government, GESDA is meant to keep Geneva on the world map at a time when global governance is in upheaval. The rivalry between China and the United States and the rise of the global South are challenging a vision of diplomacy that has been dominated by the West since 1945, and in which Geneva had a special place.
“We have here a laboratory for global governance in the 21st century,” said state secretary Alexandre Fasel, second in charge at the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), on Wednesday. He stressed that science diplomacy is“one of the main instruments” of the country's foreign policy over the next four years. On Friday, Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis announced the launch of the Open Quantum Institute (OQI), a global centre aimed at facilitating access to quantum computing and one of GESDA's main initiatives to date.
A bridge between science and politics
The aim of the GESDA Foundation is to act as a bridge between researchers at the cutting-edge of science and decision-makers in the public and private sectors. Its basic premise is to anticipate future technological breakthroughs to prepare diplomats and political leaders for their future consequences.
“What we're trying to do is to anticipate future developments. We all more or less missed the debate on artificial intelligence, which came into our lives almost overnight,” Jean-Marc Crevoisier, GESDA's marketing and communications director, told reporters in Geneva.“We weren't prepared for it, and it makes for a rather chaotic debate.”
After a three-year pilot phase, the Swiss federal authorities decided in 2022 to continue funding GESDA to the tune of CHF3 million a year over ten years. In 2022, the canton and city of Geneva also each donated CHF100,000 to the organisation's budget. By way of comparison, Switzerland has invested a total of CHF122 million in its host country policy for the period 2020-2023.
Criticism from the left and the right
In the run-up to GESDA's creation, it was criticised by certain Swiss parliamentarians on both sides of the political spectrum. Some feared that the presence of Peter Brabeck – president of GESDA and former boss of Nestlé – and Patrick Aebischer – vice-president of GESDA, former president of the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL) and Nestlé board member – would create a more elitist organisation or give rise to conflicts of interest.
“I don't think GESDA is defending all of Nestlé's interests,” said Social Democrat parliamentarian Fabian Molina, a member of the Foreign Policy Committee.“But it's clear that if you take managers who have worked all their lives for multinationals and have always defended profit and economic growth, they're not going to take the side of the most disadvantaged people on the other side of the planet.”
Some members of parliament also felt that GESDA's mission was too vague. Roland Büchel, a parliamentarian from the right-wing Swiss People's Party, who is also a member of the Foreign Policy Committee, said“by definition GESDA's role cannot be clear, because diplomacy is a matter for the government and diplomats”. He is critical that business figures are getting involved in Swiss diplomacy via a foundation funded“by taxpayers”. He added:“In my opinion, these resources could very well be spared.”
However, both parliamentarians concede that GESDA is not a priority for parliament, not least because the funding provided by the federal government remains modest by foreign ministry standards.
What are the results after four years?
GESDA is a flagship project for the FDFA and has raised very high expectations.
To date, its main product is an anticipatory“radar”, launched in 2021 and updated annually. This online platform creates a catalogue of the most important scientific breakthroughs expected over the next five, ten and 25 years in various fields of research. Its results are based on the reflections of over 1,500 scientists from around the world.
“The challenge is to get this anticipation radar to the right people,” said Johan Rochel, a researcher in innovation law and ethics at EPFL.“Developing scenarios is the first goal. But bringing them to life and bringing them to policymakers is the second major objective,” he added.
But at a time when multilateral cooperation is at a standstill due to geopolitical tensions – China-US rivalry, the war in Ukraine and now the Israeli-Palestinian war – GESDA is facing strong headwinds.
“Are we struggling to fit in with the prevailing debate? Maybe,” said Crevoisier.“But we're a foundation that's just starting out, we have a product that's recognised as cutting-edge, and we debate these issues every year.” He added six foreign ministers were due to attend the GESDA summit this year. The foundation intends to continue its efforts to reach the world's capitals, even if it is currently difficult to quantify the global impact of the conference.
“Obviously, we don't have the resources to visit all the capitals of the world and promote the radar as much as we would like to,” said Martin Müller, executive director of science anticipation at GESDA. In 2022, the foundation had a budget of just over CHF4 million and employed twelve people.“I think the message is also starting to spread a little in the various capitals via the permanent representations here in Geneva,” he added.
Geneva is close to achieving universality in terms of the number of diplomatic representations based in the city: 180 of the 193 states recognised by the UN have permanent offices there. Geneva is also home to the European headquarters of the United Nations and the World Trade Organization (WTO), as well as some 750 non-governmental organisations. Of some twenty representations contacted by SWI swissinfo, including countries with leading research centres and regional and global powers, only those of the United Kingdom and Japan responded to our requests and confirmed that diplomats would be travelling to Geneva from their respective capitals for the GESDA summit.
What might the future hold?
“GESDA is an influence or 'science for diplomacy' strategy by which the FDFA seeks to advance political objectives that go beyond science,” said Leo Eigner, a science diplomacy researcher at the Centre for Security Studies (CSS) at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich.“The problem with this 'science for diplomacy' approach is that it is very difficult to engineer such initiatives and to do so quickly.”
Darius Farman, co-director of foraus, a Geneva think-tank, also believes we will have to wait“a few more years to be able to take stock and assess the concrete achievements” of GESDA.“Over the next few years, countries of the so-called 'global South' are likely to demand that multilateralism be made less western-centric and more representative of their growing demographic and economic strength [...] GESDA will have to work with a very large number of international players and adopt an extremely diverse cast if it is to achieve its objective of mobilising people,” he added.
At a time when Switzerland's historical diplomatic strengths – its neutrality and its good offices policy – seem to be losing ground on the international stage, the country continues to enjoy an excellent reputation in the field of research, with two leading engineering schools and CERN within its borders. A bet on science diplomacy could therefore pay off, according to several experts. But Geneva is not the only one seeking to position itself as a centre for technology governance: other hubs of multilateralism such as New York, Paris, and Brussels are also keen to make their mark.
“GESDA is part of a much wider ecosystem. Geneva and its key players need to coordinate and rally round, because other cities are looking to attract the same kind of organisations,” said Rochel.
Edited by Virginie Mangin
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