Ukraine's Emerging Modern Military-Industrial Complex

Kiryukhin mentions that Ukrainian officials at the time saw this vast military as unnecessary and decided to reduce military structures and personnel, with the country also renouncing nuclear weapons under US-led international pressure.

Kiryukhin notes that before 2014 Ukraine had three military goals: resist terrorism, participate in peacekeeping missions and fight local wars if needed. Although he notes that Ukraine successfully developed its rapid reaction and special operations forces, most of its military remained in poor condition.

He notes that before Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the Ukrainian military had 700 tanks, 170 combat aircraft and 22 warships, a formidable force on paper but less capable than the numbers indicated. Ukraine initiated substantial military reforms to rebuild its neglected military and align it with NATO standards In response to its loss of Crimea to Russia.

A January 2022 US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report notes that Ukraine has a large defense industry capable of producing tanks, vehicles, aircraft, electronics, missiles and ships. The industry is overseen by Ukroboronprom, which manages over 130 state-owned companies.

The CRS report notes that while Ukrainian officials aim to reform Ukroboronprom and increase transparency, including through the passage of the On Defense Procurement law in July 2020, corruption, inefficiency, infighting and opacity remain significant challenges to modernization and implementing NATO's high standards.

In a September 2022 article for FPRI , Thomas Laffitte notes that the Ukrainian defense industry's decline owes to its historical reliance on Russia, with the disruption of bilateral trade since 2014 causing serial problems for producers who suddenly had to find new suppliers. He also notes that the damage caused since Russia's invasion of February 2022 has also adversely affected Ukrainian production sites.

Despite those challenges, Paul McLeary mentions in a December 2022 article for Politico that NATO is developing a 10-year plan to rebuild Ukraine's defense industry as a long-term commitment to move the country closer to the alliance in terms of training and equipment.

McLeary notes that the goal is to shift away from Soviet equipment and toward NATO-compatible Western gear, with top NATO acquisition officials having already met to plan ways to assist the Ukrainian defense industry while replenishing stocks of weapons and equipment donated to Kiev since the start of the war.

Jaroslaw Adamowski notes in a June 2023 article for Defense News that Ukrainian defense companies are seeking ties with European vendors for cooperative weapons manufacturing, with many positioning and selling themselves as war-experienced. Adamowski says that Ukroboronprom is developing joint projects with several NATO members including France, Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic and two undisclosed partners.

Adamowski noted that Germany's Rheinmetall and Ukroboronprom have signed an agreement for repairing tanks, with the former planning to establish a new foothold in Ukraine through other services. He notes that cooperation could facilitate technology transfer to produce“select” Rheinmetall products in the Ukraine.

He also notes Ukraine's strengthening defense industry ties with Poland, which has promised Ukroboronprom access to production facilities through Polish state-owned defense giant PGZ. Adamowsi notes that PGZ and Ukroboronprom subsidiary Artem inked a deal to cooperate on launching new production lines to make 125mm tank shells for Ukraine's military in April this year.

Adamowski also mentioned that Czech President Petr Pavel announced that his country would consider supplying some of their L-159 advanced light combat aircraft to Ukraine. The two governments agreed on multiple programs, including a venture related to the future production of the envisioned F/A-259 Striker aircraft that Czech aircraft maker Aero Vodochody, which also makes the L-159, developed with Israel Aerospace Industries.

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The complex and growing interconnectivity between Ukraine's and its allies' defense industries has the potential to spark an international arms sale boom, wherein Europe rebuilds its arsenals alongside arms dealers looking for lucrative emerging markets.

In a February 2023 article for Responsible Statecraft , Connor Echols said that the Ukraine war has produced exceptional marketing opportunities for arms dealers and significantly boosted the arms trade.

Echols notes that the long-term impact may be the creation of a“multipolar” arms trade, with the trend towards diversification away from one or two big suppliers in the name of supply chain security and resilience.

Echols notes that the Russian defense industry has seen a decline in recent years due to Western sanctions, allowing the US to consolidate its position as the world's leading arms exporter.

Ukraine's Vilkha multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) is for sale to foreign buyers. Image: Twitter

As a result, he says that traditional purchasers of Russian weapons such as India have become wary and started to tap alternative partners including France and the US. He also notes that Russia's dwindling share of the international arms trade has allowed emerging providers such as Turkey and South Korea to showcase their weapons.

In the case of Ukraine, Adamowski notes in a September 2022 Defense News article that the ongoing war has helped it advertise products such as its Skif and Corsar anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) to international buyers.

He notes that Ukraine has recently sold its Vilkha multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) to Egypt and its Neptune anti-ship missiles, famous for sinking Russia's Moskva cruiser, to Indonesia .

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