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While America's China policy has transformed into confrontation, China's overall foreign policy trajectory has largely been pragmatic and linear.

Since the 1990s, China has been explicit in its grand objective of a multi-polar world in which global politics is shaped by several dominant states.

When Xi Jinping ascended to the presidency in 2013, this aspiration became increasingly overt and assertive. A year earlier, then-vice president Xi announced China's“two centennial goals” - one calling for China to be“prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmoniand beautiful” with influence over the global world order by 2049.

Hu Jintao (L) congratulates Xi Jinping at the fourth plenary meeting of the first session of the 12th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on March 14, 2013 when Xi was elected president of the People's Republic of China (PRC) and chairman of the Central Military Commission of the PRC at the NPC session.
Photo: Xinhua

To analyze Chinese-American relations, the metaphor of the Thucydides's trap - in which a rising power challenges an existing one - may not be the most appropriate analogy. And phrases like“the rise of China” don't do justice to China's history.

China has been a great power, regionally at least, for thousands of years and was a manufacturing behemoth even in the 1750s .

Geopolitically, thecontinues to retain a military and diplomatic edge over China. It has demonstrated its will and capability to determine the rules of engagement in China's own backyard .

But even though China trails thein many areas, it doesn't need American support as much as it used to. Astonishingly rapid development in the last two decades is probably still far from China's most creative and innovative phase.

American limitations

There are also limits to the American field of influence in the region.

Thehas failed to move beyond strengthening existing alliances and fortifying its military installations. Its geostrategic options are also limited. If, for example, the Americans shored up Japan's offensive capabilities or deepened their partnership with India to challenge China, they would be inadvertently creating a multi-polar world.

China is not deterred by American policy. It is countering it through the art of persuasion and dialogue . But it, too, has exhibited its limits.

With a few exceptions , China has failed to convince even its neighbors of the sincerity of its intentions. A majority of Asian nations are eitherallies or neutral .

The ongoing tit-for-tat between the two nuclear and highly interdependent powers will continue to shape their relations, which is concerning for global peace and stability.

Will thepeacefully share global influence with China? Will China abide by its Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and its claim that it will never seek world domination ? It's hard to say.

Four indicators of what lies ahead

Several indicators, however, point to a somewhat balanced co-existence between the two as dominant power centers in the coming decades.

First, thehas been unsuccessful in inhibiting China's growth and expansion, and will likely be incapable of preventing the world's second-biggest economy from achieving its centennial goals.

Second, China is already present around the globe in terms of human capital, investment, manufactured products - and world public opinion about China is changing .

Third, to use the Taoist metaphor, China is a hub that has many spokes and has the capacity and will to invent many more. The hub is united and efficient; an economic downturn will only slow the social organism, not cause it to collapse.

When China was barred from the International Space Station after the passage of a law by theCongress in 2011, for example, it constructed Tiangong, a permanent space station .

Space program is moving along: Chinese astronauts salute after successfully entering the Tianhe space station module as they are displayed on a big screen at the Beijing Aerospace Control Center in Beijing, on June 17, 2021. Photo: Jin Liwang / Xinhua

Fourth, the rise of non-liberal democratic regimes and weaknesses in democracies are creating a situation where some nations are gravitating towards China while others are moving away from the US.

That said, political reason is too often at the mercy of short-term calculations.

Thehas shown no interest in sharing world leadership, nor has China shown any interest in deviating from its global aspirations.

But even though they may appear to be on a collision course, it seems likely China is going to be successful in its pursuit, and both nations will ultimately learn to co-exist and thrive.

Until then, one can only hope that they spare the world the chaos and ugliness of power politics and use their creative energies for the betterment of the human condition.

Yasar Bukan is a lecturer in global politics and political philosophy at the Toronto Metropolitan University .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article . Listen to the article.

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