(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Elnur Enveroglu read more Following Pashinyan's rightful decision on recognizing
Azerbaijan's territory at a meeting in Yerevan, sounded quite
shocking in Armenia. Literally Pashinyan is on the right path by
going his full forces ahead, however future prospects with respect
to relations between Pashinyan's authority and Armenian society,
including provocations by separatist forces and Armenian diaspora
abroad is yet unpredictable. Perhaps the society could be the
easiest part for Pashinyan tackle with, but the separatist forces
and their external supporters seem to be a real threat for the
Prime Minister's future and even his life.
Speaking to Azernews , Irish political analyst,
historian and professor Patrick Walsh said that Pashinyan may face
a serious pressure, especially by parents of those who died in the
Second Karabakh War.
“Pashinyan quite rightly points out that he is obliged to
recognise the de jure sovereignty of Azerbaijan over its Karabakh
region. It is a fact of international law and the United Nations.
But, of course, there will be resistance. Within Armenia there is
bound to be resistance from those who fought in the recent war
along with relatives of the dead. This is why a negotiated
settlement was always the best option for Armenia. Abroad the
diaspora is in uproar. Recently Eric Hacobian of CivilNet in
California predicted a "Second Genocide" and threatened new wars in
the future. The Armenian diaspora wants to rebuild the Armenian
army and are very annoyed at Russia's understandable reluctance to
supply weapons for this rebuild. The painful reality of defeat is
coming home to the Armenians at home and abroad, it seems.”
Touching on the ongoing deep rifts between Yerevan and
Khankendi, the Irish expert noted that Pashinyan is still playing
with time to extend the peace agreement, which could turn him into
an enemy in front of the people.
“Pashinyan will do well to survive a humiliating peace treaty
which is why he has been delaying it. While Yerevan has been moving
toward the West in the hope that Washington or Paris will assist
them, the pseudo state in Karabakh still maintain a degree of faith
in Russia as potential saviours. This is opening up divisions
between Yerevan and Stepanakert. Ironically Pashinyan would be
better off without the intransigent Karabakh Armenians that
obstruct his reform and development programme. Armenia has seen
some good signs of economic development since they shed most of the
occupied territory and for future prosperity of the people of
actual Armenia the settling of the Karabakh issue would be a good
thing. However the big question is whether Pashinyan can be a
Charles DeGaulle as in the Algerian issue or will he be brushed
aside?” Walsh said.
As for Azerbaijan's intervention in the process between
Pashinyan and the separatist forces in Karabakh, Walsh noted that
there are still two years ahead of it.
“Azerbaijan must wait until 2025 when the agreement can be used
to ask the Russians to leave. The Ukraine war has been beneficial
in this respect because Russia will be less likely to want another
conflict, win or lose in Ukraine. Moscow would be worried over
further Western action and I think the Russians are more likely to
walk away if some guarantees of future Azerbaijani neutrality are
provided with perhaps other sweetners. There is no hurry to rush,
the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end before next year and it is
probable that the Russians will be more amenable to leave than
fight have been feared.”
In his comment, Patrick Walsh highly appreciated the initiatives
of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the negotiation process organized by
the West and Russia and noted that this can create a successful
foundation for both countries to conduct independent policies in
the future, independent of the parties.
“It would be better if the entire international community plays
a useful role in the settlement. This is because the South Caucasus
will hopefully not become a geopolitical battleground, as Ukraine
has, between the Great Powers. Actually both Azerbaijan and Armenia
have been clever. Both sides have operated a parallel peace
process, basically replicating their moves between Russian and
US/UK twin track processes. In my view this suits Baku which has
always operated a balanced foreign policy. However, at some stage
Armenia, either through the overthrow of Pashinyan or him coming
under extreme pressure, will jump one side or another to gain
advantage from either Moscow or Washington. That could be a
dangerous moment and will test the statesmanship of the Azerbaijani
government. Past events suggest they can meet this challenge though
world instability will play a part in the final outcome and we live
in unpredictable times for sure,” he added.
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Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews' deputy editor-in-chief, follow him
on @elnurmammadli1