Poland Dreams Of Building Europe's Largest Army, Against Backdrop Of Russia's War Against Ukraine

By supporting Ukraine at a time of need, the Polish government has chalked up points with other European governments. Soon after Russia invaded, in late February, Poland welcomed hundreds of thousands of refugees and drummed up support for arming Kyiv. In March, it alongside Czech and Slovenian counterparts. Three months later, Germany, France and Italy were playing catch-up, bolstering the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party narrative that . Warsaw's also increasingly appears vindicated, as the conflict sheds light on the security issues of NATO's eastern flank.

But Russia's war against Ukraine has also spurred less liberal ambitions. The Polish Defence Minister has repeatedly trumpeted its with the view to building up a“great army” capable of withstanding the shock of a Russian armed attack.

Analysts believe such plans could make the Polish army the most powerful in Europe. French defence website Méta Défense a“spectacular reinforcement of the Polish army's overall capacity, which, by the end of the decade, will include 1,500 modern tanks, an equal number of infantry combat vehicles, 1,200 mobile artillery units and several thousand light armoured vehicles to exceed the arms capacity of the French, German, UK, Italian, Dutch and Belgian forces combined”.

The government, which is expected to spend 3% of the national budget on defence, now intends to grow its land army from , equivalent to 300,000 soldiers, compared with the current figure of 115,000. It will also see a significant boost in firepower. excludes pre-emptive strikes but seeks to deter any armed aggression.

Warsaw will rely not only on purchasing existing technology, but also on partnerships that are likely to strengthen the Polish national arms industry. Plans have been made to acquire US tanks and helicopters, as well as HIMARS missiles, the latter of which proved .

Other contracts have been , including shipments of tanks and howitzers and as recent orders of 288 artillery rocket launchers. More importantly, these purchases from Seoul appear to include technology transfers and cooperation deals that could increase the autonomy of the Polish defence industry, perhaps even to rival that of the country's western European counterparts.

All along, the EU's defence industries have been systematically disregarded in favour of US, UK and South Korean equipment (with Poland switching from Airbus to Italian brand Leonardo, only to drop them for ).

These plans chime with the “geopolitical ideology” driving PiS and large swaths of the Polish conservative landscape. They also clarify the country's position on Europe.

Ever since the early 1990, the Polish right wing has considered NATO membership more significant than EU membership, whereas liberals and moderates have been more open to the political integration of Europe. These discrepancies have long beenblurred by Poland's more general concern to be part of the international organisations of Europe and the western world, but they are now becoming more and more salient.

For the PiS, the EU appears as a secondary arena, particularly given the bloc's readiness to confront Poland when it considers its government violates certain European principles. The new arms deals with South Korea are a clear indication the PiS government no longer wishes to depend upon, or show internal solidarity with, the EU in matters of defence.

These developments may be linked to attempts that were made back in January to create a . It is evident PiS sees the EU simply as a stepping stone on the path toward liberal globalisation, rather than a means of integration and new solidarity between member states.

News of the military expansion have from the Polish opposition. Opposition parties unanimously supported a , but Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS President and effective leader of the government wants it to in the future.

Some former defence ministers have will local industry. A , dating back to 2016, has also resurfaced, following a leak of old government e-mails that plotted . These Airbus helicopters were due to be delivered to Poland between 2017 and 2022, whereas 96 new US Apaches have just been commissioned, with only 18 deliveries confirmed so far. All this has occurred outside the usual bidding procedure.

Opposition leaders also denounce PiS's anti-Europeanism, revealing cracks within what was once a pro-Atlantic consensus. Opposition parties have should they emerge victorious from elections in 2023.

The current rearmament policy is being rolled out ahead of an election that, , looks less positive for the PiS. The country has seen the highest (at almost 16.4%) since the 1990s. Various other crises that have been mismanaged by the government, including the .

Rocketing household energy prices and are liable to hurt the groups likeliest to vote for PiS (e.g. elderly people, rural areas and regions of economic stagnation), who may turn out in fewer numbers during the legislative election.

In light of this difficult situation, the PiS is pushing its defence position and nationalist rhetoric to reinvigorate rifts and polarise politics, especially by . The PiS has even managed to bring the issue of . But these all-too-obvious electoral gimmicks may not work as well as they did in the past.

Translated from the French by Enda Boorman for

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