Stocks To Rise, Oil To Fall, And Bonds To Rally On Trump-Iran Deal Hopes

Bond markets are expected to be central to Monday's reaction after a brutal selloff in sovereign debt pushed benchmark yields sharply higher in recent weeks.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.7% this month, among its highest levels since early 2025, while the 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5%, levels not seen since before the global inflation crisis cooled.

Brent crude surged sharply during recent volatility, with analysts warning prices could climb toward $120-$140 if disruption persisted through summer.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury eased back toward 4.56% on Friday after optimism surrounding possible Iran negotiations began filtering through markets.

Equity markets are also expected to react strongly.

Major stock indexes have already shown how aggressively investors reposition around developments linked to Hormuz. Earlier this month, Wall Street hit record highs while crude prices dropped sharply on optimism surrounding potential diplomatic progress.

Currency markets are expected to shift rapidly as defensive positioning unwinds.

Gold, which has surged during the conflict amid demand for defensive assets, may experience near-term weakness.

Bitcoin is also expected to participate in any broad-based relief rally.

Markets remain highly sensitive to confirmation surrounding sanctions relief, shipping access and implementation timelines. Investors will also watch closely for signs that oil supply flows through Hormuz can normalize quickly.

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