COLCAP 2,083 - Six Days To Vote - Rio Times

2026-05-25 05:00:39

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Monday, May 25, 2026 · Covering Friday May 22 session and weekend Summary

COLCAP Colombia market report: the index fell 0.85% to 2,083.39 on Friday May 22, opening at the day high 2,101.35 and closing at the day low - a clean Open=High bearish exhaustion. Ecopetrol led the slide (−2.46% to COP $2,575) on softer oil and a new sulfur-supply deal under review. The poll blackout now binds: Sunday's May 24 surveys were the last public read before the May 31 first round.

The Big Three 1.
COLCAP closed Friday at a cycle low 2,083.39 (−0.85%, −17.96 pts) on a textbook Open=High candle: open 2,101.35 = day high, close = day low. The 20.82-point range is the second narrowest of the month - distribution, not panic. The index sliced below the Kijun cluster 2,097.65 that had capped every rally since May 12. 2.
Ecopetrol fell 2.46% to COP $2,575, intraday low $2,565, leading the slide on softer Brent and a Monomeros–Gecelca sulfur deal under union review. RSI fast 35.63 below slow 35.52 sits at the deepest oversold of the cycle, paired with a narrow MACD histogram −2.38 - the bearish momentum has not yet widened. 3.
The political calendar is the binding constraint. The 7-day poll-publication blackout begins today - Sunday's May 24 surveys were the last public read. Cepeda closed his campaign Friday May 23 at Bogotá's Bolívar Square calling Uribe a“fascist”; Sunday May 24 was the legal end of all public campaign events. From here, the market trades on whispers and rallies, not data. COLCAP 2,083 −0.85% USD/COP $3,672 −0.78% RSI Fast 35.63 Cycle low Days to Vote 6 Blackout active 02 Session Data

Metric	Value	Change	Context
COLCAP close	2,083.39	−0.85%	Cycle low, below Kijun 2,097.65
Intraday range	2,083.39–2,104.21	20.82 pts	Open=High distribution candle
Ecopetrol (ECO)	COP $2,575	−2.46%	Index heavyweight led slide
USD/COP	$3,672	−0.78%	Peso strengthened - equity-specific selling
RSI (fast/slow)	35.63 / 35.52	Cycle low	Deepest oversold since March
MACD (hist/line/signal)	−2.38 / −39.99 / −42.37	Bearish	Line still above signal; not widening yet
BB lower	2,044.26	1.9% below	First structural support before 200-DMA

Source: BVC, BanRep, La República, TradingView. Snapshot: May 25, 2026 06:11 UTC. Live Market IntelligenceColombia - Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Colombia - Live Market Board

BVC · Bogotá
May 25, 2026 · 05:58

MSCI COLCAP · benchmark 2,118
-0.22% L 9.02day rangeH 9.05

Market breadth · 8 names 13% advancing

1 ▲ advancing7 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs USD / COP 3,684 +0.00%

Brent crude 100.21 -3.22%

WTI crude 96.60 +0.00%

Sector heatmap · average move today Industrials -0.07% TECNOGLASS

Energy -0.11% ECOPETROL

Mining -0.68% BUENAVENTURA

Other -0.97% BRENT, WTI, SOUTHERN COPPER

Financials -1.41% BANCOLOMBIA, GRUPO AVAL, CREDICORP

Latin America scoreboard IndexLastTodayStrength IbovespaBrazil
176,210
-0.81%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico
68,333
-0.07%

S&P IPSAChile
10,564
-0.34%

S&P MERVALArgentina
2,846,220
-1.08%

MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,118
-0.22%

BVL S&P PerúPeru
19,767
+0.37%

Full instrument board

Instrument	Last	Change	YoY	Prev.	High	Low	Volume
COLCAP	2,118	-0.22%	-	9.04	9.05	9.02	4,133
USD/COP	3,684	+0.00%	-11.39%	3,684	3,684	3,655	-
BRENT	100.21	-3.22%	+56.36%	103.54	97.59	94.21	7,019
WTI	96.60	+0.00%	+58.65%	96.60	93.90	90.32	53,365
ECOPETROL	13.85	-0.11%	+60.86%	13.86	13.97	13.64	1,710,475
BANCOLOMBIA	65.88	-0.66%	+58.48%	66.32	66.51	65.49	357,925
GRUPO AVAL	4.23	-0.70%	+50.00%	4.26	4.31	4.17	101,655
TECNOGLASS	41.17	-0.07%	-51.08%	41.20	41.54	40.37	272,482
CREDICORP	334.10	-2.88%	+63.68%	344.00	350.00	332.55	436,247
BUENAVENTURA	33.48	-0.68%	+123.07%	33.71	34.30	32.95	822,497
SOUTHERN COPPER	179.67	+0.31%	+101.67%	179.12	180.83	177.04	1,035,481

Largest moves today BRENT
100.21
-3.22% CREDICORP
334.10
-2.88% GRUPO AVAL
4.23
-0.70% BUENAVENTURA
33.48
-0.68% BANCOLOMBIA
65.88
-0.66% SOUTHERN COPPER
179.67
+0.31% COLCAP
2,118
-0.22% ECOPETROL
13.85
-0.11%

The session read The MSCI COLCAP eased 0.22%, with breadth negative - 1 of 8 names higher. Industrials led, while Financials lagged.

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03 Why It Fell Local Driver: Ecopetrol and the poll-blackout countdown

Ecopetrol's 2.46% drop did the index work, on softer Brent and the Monomeros–Gecelca sulfur-offtake deal union sources flagged for review. Cepeda's closing Bogotá rally Friday May 23 attacking Uribe as“fascist” raised final-week rhetoric a register; Sunday May 24 ended public campaigning. From today, the seven-day poll blackout strips the market's primary information channel.

External Trigger: Warsh era opens, Brazil decouples down with Colombia

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair Friday; traders are now pricing the Fed to hold through 2026 with hike risk for 2027. Wall Street closed at records into Memorial Day; LATAM did not - Brazil also fell 0.81% Friday. Latin America is the relative loser of the Warsh opening week.

§04 · Market Commentary

The cleanest read this week is the FX–equity divergence. Equities posted a new cycle low at 2,083 on a clean Open=High distribution, but the peso STRENGTHENED 0.78% to a two-week high near $3,672 - the kind of split that says selling is equity-specific (Ecopetrol, election overhang) rather than broad COP-weakness risk-off. The carry trade at BanRep 's 11.25% is still doing its work; foreign capital is rotating from equities into local fixed income to hold yield through the political event, not exiting Colombia outright.

The probability tree is intact. Invamer's April Cepeda 44.3% / De la Espriella 21.5% / Valencia 19.8% is the last firm read; AtlasIntel had Valencia beating Cepeda 47.1–39.6 head-to-head. Cepeda's 8.5–9M ceiling sits well below the 11.4M needed to win outright, so a June 21 runoff is the base case. With polls dark, every move from here is a Bayesian update on whispers.

05 Technical Snapshot

MSCI COLCAP daily, BVC. TradingView · May 25, 2026 06:11 UTC

COLCAP 2,083 sits below the Kijun cluster 2,097.65 and the BB mid 2,094.79 that capped every rally since May 12, with the cloud bottom now overhead resistance. The MACD line at −39.99 remains above signal −42.37 with a small −2.38 histogram, so the bearish cross has not widened - consistent with stabilisation rather than a fresh leg. RSI fast 35.63 below slow 35.52 marks the deepest oversold of the cycle. BB lower 2,044.26 is the first structural support; below that, the 200-DMA in the low 2,040s is the long-term uptrend line that has not been tested in this cycle.

Resistance: 2,094.79 (BB mid) · 2,097.65 (Kijun) · 2,108.50 (cloud top) · 2,143.07 (20-DMA) Support: 2,083.39 (Fri low) · 2,044.26 (BB lower) · 200-DMA low 2,040s · 2,000 (round) Invalidation: Daily close below the 200-DMA breaks the long-term uptrend; that is the Cepeda-outright tail print. 06 Forward Look Today · Poll blackout begins Sunday's May 24 surveys were the last public read; from here the tape trades on whispers. Sunday May 31 · First round Polls open 8:00 local; preliminary results by 19:00. Base case: June 21 runoff with Cepeda vs De la Espriella or Valencia. Sunday June 21 · Runoff (if needed) Invamer projects Cepeda wins all simulations; AtlasIntel has Valencia 47.1–39.6 - the methodology spread is the trade. June 17–18 · First Warsh FOMC Polymarket hike odds 52%; hold-with-hawkish-dots is the likely outcome and the COP-pressure variable. 07 Questions & Answers Why did equities sell off while the peso strengthened? The split says the selling is equity-specific (Ecopetrol, election); the BanRep 11.25% carry is still working. What does the poll blackout mean for trading? Colombian law restricts new public polls in the seven days pre-vote; the tape trades on closing-rally optics and private numbers, not data. What is the market's preferred outcome? A Valencia runoff path is the upside; a Cepeda outright first-round win is the tail that breaks the 200-DMA. Verdict

COLCAP printed a cycle low on a clean Open=High distribution candle, and the polls have gone dark. The peso's 0.78% gain says this is an equity-specific event, not broad capital flight. RSI 35.63 and a narrow MACD spread argue stabilisation, but the political binary now has no information feedback for six days. Whispers and rally optics will drive the tape until Sunday.

Related: Fri May 22 bounce report · Election preview · May 20 decoupling.

Six days dark, one Sunday loud: the May 31 print resets the tape.

Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.