Merval 2.85M - YPF 15-Year High - Rio Times

2026-05-25 04:31:02

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Monday, May 25, 2026 · Covering Friday May 22 session and weekend Summary

Argentina Merval stock market report: the index eased 1.08% to 2,846,220.22 Friday after Thursday's +3.19% breakout, netting +5.1% on the week and leading LATAM by a wide margin. YPF ADR rose 8.2% to $47.99, a 15-year high. Country risk fell 24bp to 514 bps - closest to 500 since the 2018 Macri-IMF cycle. BCRA reserves $46.803B. RSI and MACD remain bullish.

The Big Three 1.
Merval closed Friday at 2,846,220.22 (−1.08%, −31,218 pts), giving back roughly one third of Thursday's +3.19% breakout. The candle is digestion, not breakdown: opened 2,866,690, range 2,842,297–2,870,946, close above the Kijun cluster. Weekly print +5.1% in pesos is the strongest in LATAM by 4+ points. Breadth Friday was thin negative - 5 of 14 names higher, Financials led, Utilities lagged. 2.
YPF ADR rose 8.2% on the week to $47.99 - a 15-year nominal high, last seen in March 2011 - on the Vaca Muerta shale-oil ramp and the regional LatAm re-pricing. Banks ran with it: Banco Macro +7.9%, Galicia +6.9%, Banco Francés +6.8%. Bank YTD prints still −15% to −32% from a difficult Q1; reversal, not extension. 3.
The macro is doing the work. JP Morgan EMBI+ country risk fell 24bp on the week to 514 bps, approaching the symbolic 500 line for the first time since the 2018 Macri-IMF cycle. BCRA reserves $46.803B (+$52M Friday) sit $102M below the Milei -era February record and the highest since 2018. Sovereign Bonares/Globales averaged +1.2% on the week. Merval 2.85M −1.08% YPF ADR $47.99 15-yr high Country Risk 514 bps −24bp wk BCRA Reserves $46.8B Near 2018 high 02 Weekly Session Data

Metric	Value	Change	Context
Merval close (Fri)	2,846,220	−1.08%	Digestion of Thu's +3.19% breakout
Weekly print (peso)	+5.1%	LATAM #1	Vs Brazil −, Colombia −, Mexico flat
YPF ADR (week)	$47.99	+8.2%	Highest since March 2011
USD mayorista (Fri)	ARS $1,403	+1.0%	Highest of May; BCRA bought $139M
BCRA reserves	$46.803B	+$52M Fri	$102M below Feb record
RSI (fast/slow)	51.95 / 45.97	Fast > slow	Only LATAM bench above midline
MACD (hist/line/sig)	+7,403 / −12,577 / −19,980	Bullish cross	Line above signal, histogram green

Source: BYMA, BCRA, JP Morgan EMBI+, Ámbito, Infobae, TradingView. Snapshot: May 25, 2026 06:10 UTC. Live Market IntelligenceArgentina - Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Argentina - Live Market Board

BYMA · Buenos Aires
May 25, 2026 · 05:25

S&P MERVAL · benchmark 2,846,220
-1.08% L 2,842,298day rangeH 2,870,946

+22.95% over 12 months

Market breadth · 14 names 36% advancing

5 ▲ advancing9 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs USD / ARS 1,399 -0.14%

Brent crude 100.21 -3.22%

Soybeans 1,197 +0.19%

Sector heatmap · average move today Financials +0.18% GGAL, COME, BYMA

Mining +0.08% TXAR

Materials -0.10% ALUAR, LOMA NEGRA

Consumer Disc. -0.17% MIRGOR, MERCADOLIBRE

Energy -0.78% YPF, TGS

Telecom -1.06% TELECOM ARG

Technology -1.23% GLOBANT

Utilities -1.98% PAMPA, CEPU

Latin America scoreboard IndexLastTodayStrength IbovespaBrazil
176,210
-0.81%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico
68,333
-0.07%

S&P IPSAChile
10,564
-0.34%

S&P MERVALArgentina
2,846,220
-1.08%

MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,118
-0.22%

BVL S&P PerúPeru
19,767
+0.37%

Full instrument board

Instrument	Last	Change	YoY	Prev.	High	Low	Volume
MERVAL	2,846,220	-1.08%	+22.95%	2,877,439	2,870,946	2,842,298	-
USD/ARS	1,399	-0.14%	+23.38%	1,401	1,399	1,399	-
YPF	71,025	+0.25%	+68.81%	70,850	72,300	70,500	188,422
GGAL	6,455	-0.54%	-9.65%	6,490	6,600	6,390	1,681,932
PAMPA	4,793	-0.93%	+28.75%	4,838	4,903	4,755	437,582
TXAR	638.00	+0.08%	-5.99%	637.50	643.00	608.50	461,037
ALUAR	947.00	+2.05%	+21.92%	928.00	949.00	910.00	243,401
TGS	8,685	-1.81%	+23.77%	8,845	8,850	8,600	277,281
CEPU	2,077	-3.03%	+34.29%	2,142	2,186	2,075	651,042
MIRGOR	16,350	+0.46%	-28.49%	16,275	16,500	16,025	2,084
COME	43.70	-2.35%	-38.41%	44.75	45.40	43.54	4,649,516
LOMA NEGRA	3,275	-2.24%	+7.92%	3,350	3,353	3,265	149,155
BYMA	286.00	+3.44%	+37.79%	276.50	287.00	274.00	4,702,808
TELECOM ARG	3,493	-1.06%	+45.88%	3,530	3,645	3,490	13,134
GLOBANT	40.13	-1.23%	-60.12%	40.63	42.02	39.10	1,204,384
MERCADOLIBRE	1,664	-0.80%	-33.63%	1,678	1,704	1,650	397,139

Largest moves today BYMA
286.00
+3.44% CEPU
2,077
-3.03% COME
43.70
-2.35% LOMA NEGRA
3,275
-2.24% ALUAR
947.00
+2.05% TGS
8,685
-1.81% GLOBANT
40.13
-1.23% MERVAL
2,846,220
-1.08%

The session read The S&P MERVAL eased 1.08%, with breadth negative - 5 of 14 names higher. Financials led, while Utilities lagged.

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03 Why It Led Local Driver: Milei agricultural tax cuts, IMF approval, reserve accumulation

Three Argentina-specific catalysts compounded. Milei announced export-tax (retenciones) cuts on wheat and barley with a 2027 soy commitment, lifting the agro-export thesis. The IMF Second Review was approved Thursday, removing a known overhang. BCRA bought $139M Friday for $1.835B cumulative May purchases; reserves $46.803B, $102M shy of the Milei-era February high. The peso mayorista weakened 1% on heavy volume - BCRA accumulation, not capital flight, confirmed by the parallel bond and equity rally.

External Trigger: Warsh era opens, Argentina decouples up

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair Friday; traders now price the Fed to hold through 2026 with hike risk for 2027. Wall Street closed at records into Memorial Day, but LATAM split: Brazil fell 0.81% and Colombia 0.85% on the Iran uranium snag, Mexico held on the EU pact, Argentina lapped the field on the weekly print. The Vaca Muerta ramp keeps YPF's thesis intact through the Brent oscillation.

§04 · Market Commentary

The cleanest read this week is the equity–bond convergence. Equities printed +5.1% in pesos, sovereigns averaged +1.2%, country risk compressed 24bp toward 500. That is the constellation Argentina has been hunting since the May 11 capitulation reversal at 2,749,913 - domestic flow finally translating into international price action via the bond market, not just BYMA. The alto beta is working in Argentina's favour, not against.

Friday's 1.08% pullback is profit-taking, not a regime break. Thursday's +3.19% breakout was the second-largest May session; a one-day giveback of one third is healthy. MACD bullish cross holds and RSI above the midline is the only such posture in LATAM this Friday. Argentina enters the week as the relative winner of the Warsh-era opening.

05 Technical Snapshot

S&P MERVAL daily, BYMA. TradingView · May 25, 2026 06:10 UTC

Merval 2,846,220 sits above the Kijun cluster near 2,787,742 and well above the 200-DMA in the 2,790,000 zone - structurally uptrended. BB upper 2,907,787 is the next overhead gate; a close through reopens 3M. MACD histogram +7,403 with line −12,577 above signal −19,980 keeps the bullish cross intact, and RSI fast 51.95 above slow 45.97 is the cleanest momentum posture in LATAM. The 2,832,806 BB-mid cluster is the first support; Kijun 2,787,742 is the structural line that separates digestion from a failed breakout.

Resistance: 2,870,946 (Fri high) · 2,907,787 (BB upper) · 3,000,000 (round) · 3,184,141 (Dec ATH) Support: 2,832,806 (BB mid) · 2,809,112 (cluster) · 2,787,742 (Kijun) · 2,710,437 (cloud bottom) Invalidation: Daily close below the 2,787,742 Kijun negates Thursday's breakout and reopens the cloud bottom. 06 Forward Look Mon May 25 · US Memorial Day, partial liquidity Argentine ADRs in NYC closed; BYMA trades, amplifying domestic flows on lighter cross-market arbitrage. Rolling · Country risk toward 500 bps Sub-500 reopens private-market access for the 2026 maturities. June 17–18 · First Warsh FOMC Polymarket hike odds 52%; hold-with-hawkish-dots pressures EM but Argentina's reform alpha cushions. October · Midterm elections Milei's mandate test; durable re-rating depends on consolidating the LLA bloc against weakened Peronism. 07 Questions & Answers Why is Argentina decoupling from LATAM? Milei's reform stack (tax cuts, IMF Review approved, reserves at multi-year highs) plus YPF's Vaca Muerta ramp overrides regional Iran headlines. What does country risk near 500 bps signal? Sub-500 unlocks private-market access on the 2026 maturities; sustained below marks the durable re-rating, not just an equity squeeze. Is Friday's 1.08% pullback a regime break? No. It is profit-taking of Thursday's +3.19% breakout; MACD cross holds, RSI above midline. A close below the 2,787,742 Kijun changes that read. Verdict

Argentina is the LATAM relative winner of the Warsh-era opening week. Friday's giveback masks a structural shift: country risk 514 bps near 500, YPF at a 15-year high, reserves $102M shy of a Milei-era record, IMF Review behind, retenciones cut. The MACD bullish cross and RSI above midline are the only such posture in LATAM. The Kijun at 2,787,742 separates digestion from a failed breakout.

Related: Fri May 22 breakout report · Weekly recap · May 18 reversal.

Five hundred is the number. Sub-500 country risk reopens the private-market door.

Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.