Commentary: Will Other Members Leave Opec After The UAE Exit?

2026-05-10 11:14:44

(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) [Editor's note: The author is currently president of UAE Safety and Emergency Security Association and professor of sustainable development at the American University of Sharjah. He is former UAE Minister of Climate Change and Environment and former Minister of Infrastructure. A highly sought-after speaker on sustainability, renewable energy, and the built environment, he authored two books on climate change – contributing to academic, policy, and international reforms.]

Since the mid‐20th century, economic and political blocs have emerged as instruments through which states seek to safeguard their interests and strengthen their influence in a rapidly changing world.

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Yet history shows that these blocs are far from equal in their resilience. Some have succeeded in building solid institutions capable of withstanding crises, while others have remained fragile, easily shaken by internal disagreements and dependent on temporary understandings rather than durable institutional foundations.

In this context, Opec and Opec+ stand as a clear example of a strategically important bloc whose structural fragility becomes visible whenever the geopolitical or economic landscape shifts.

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Opec (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) was founded in 1960 at a moment when major international oil companies-controlled prices and production, giving producing countries little say in shaping the market. The organisation emerged to provide these states with a collective voice.

Over the decades, Opec became a central player in global energy markets, yet it continued to rely on voluntary compliance among its members - a commitment not backed by binding enforcement mechanisms or independent oversight.

With the creation of Opec+, the complexity only deepened, as non‐Opec producers entered the decision‐making circle, making consensus more delicate and collective action slower.

Recent data reveals the scale of the challenges facing the bloc. Opec+ produces nearly half of the world's oil, meaning that any internal disagreement can unsettle global markets. In 2025, the alliance implemented production cuts of around 3.24 million barrels per day - roughly 3 per cent of global demand - reflecting its reliance on market management through supply reductions rather than a unified production strategy.

Restricted quotas

Countries such as the UAE, with a production capacity approaching 5 million barrels per day, were restricted to quotas not exceeding 3.2 million barrels, highlighting the tension between national capabilities and collective constraints. Additional voluntary cuts by eight Opec+ members - amounting to 1.65 million barrels per day in 2023 before being partially eased - further illustrate the fragility of collective discipline.

Another factor deepening this fragility is the widening disparity in energy‐sector investment among member states. Some countries have invested heavily over the past decade in field development, capacity expansion, and advanced hydrogen and renewable‐energy systems.

Others, however, face declining infrastructure and limited ability to meet the demands of a changing market. This divergence affects not only production capacity but also the strategic outlook on the future of energy itself. While some members view the shift toward the green economy as a strategic opportunity, others fear it may diminish their role in global markets.

As the world enters a phase requiring massive investment in low‐carbon technologies, these differences become an additional constraint on the bloc's ability to adopt unified decisions or articulate a shared vision for the future.

The data published by the UAE Ministry of Energy and the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy, along with estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Emirates Investment Authority (EIA), highlight a clear variation in investment levels across the organisation.

Structural disparities

The UAE invested more than $82 billion in energy infrastructure over the past decade, while combined investments by Iraq, Kuwait, and Algeria ranged between $80 billion and $105 billion, and some smaller Opec members maintained more limited levels of $1 to 3 billion. These differences-reflected in reports by the IEA and Opec's Annual Statistical Bulletin-illustrate the natural diversity in economic capacities and national priorities within Opec, and the resulting challenges for collective coordination in a rapidly evolving global energy landscape.

In light of these structural disparities - in investment capacity, governance expectations, and visions for the future of energy - the UAE's decision to leave Opec appears as a step rooted in strategic logic rather than sudden divergence. For these reasons, the world will not be surprised if other OPEC members choose to reassess their positions or even follow similar paths, seeking frameworks that offer greater flexibility and alignment with their long‐term national energy strategies.

A comparison with a more resilient bloc, such as the European Union, highlights these structural contrasts. The EU possesses legislative, executive, and judicial institutions, enforcement mechanisms, and unified policies across broad sectors - giving it the capacity to absorb shocks, as demonstrated during financial crises, the Covid‐19 pandemic, and recent energy disruptions. Opec and Opec+, by contrast, rely on periodic meetings where disagreements are managed more than policies are shaped, and on situational understandings that shift with circumstances.

Entering a new era

Yet the greatest challenge facing fragile blocs today does not come solely from within. The world is entering a new era defined by climate transitions and the green economy. Major economies are moving toward net‐zero commitments, and investment is accelerating in renewables, hydrogen, and low‐emission technologies. In this environment, global energy demand is changing - not only in volume but in composition - forcing traditional oil‐based blocs to reconsider their role and relevance.

This raises a fundamental question: Can a traditional oil organisation, in its current form, evolve into a future‐oriented energy platform capable of meeting the demands of a rapidly changing world?

The answer is neither simple nor impossible. Such a transformation requires reimagining the very concept of the bloc: Shifting from managing oil quotas to managing a diversified energy ecosystem; from voluntary coordination to institutionalised governance; and from reactive crisis management to proactive strategic foresight.

Energy‐producing states - including those in the Gulf - possess the expertise, infrastructure, and investment capacity to lead this transition. But success depends on the presence of a resilient, not fragile, bloc capable of making long‐term strategic decisions.

Fragile blocs do not necessarily collapse, but they do lose relevance when the world changes around them. Resilient blocs, by contrast, reinvent themselves before reality forces them to do so.

In an era of profound global transformation, the real question is not whether Opec and Opec+ will endure, but whether they can evolve at the pace the world now demands.