Iran Could Withstand US Naval Blockade for Months Despite Pressure

(MENAFN) A US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports is expected to significantly reduce Tehran’s oil export revenues, but Iran may still be able to sustain its economy for several months without experiencing a severe economic collapse, according to reports cited on Saturday.

The blockade, which began roughly a month ago, was initially described by US President Donald Trump and senior officials as a measure that would quickly cripple Iran’s oil industry. Trump previously claimed that Iran’s energy infrastructure could rapidly fail if exports were halted, saying, “If they don’t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode.”

However, those expectations have not materialized. While the blockade has disrupted shipping activity and left dozens of Iranian tankers stalled near the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has continued to manage its oil operations.

Reports indicate that although oil production has declined gradually, Iran could face storage limitations within approximately two months, potentially forcing partial shutdowns of certain wells. Despite this, analysts suggest the country may avoid widespread disruption because a significant portion of its oil output can still be processed and consumed domestically.

Robin Mills of Qamar Energy and the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University said Iran would likely need to reduce production by around half but could maintain operations through domestic refining.

“They’re going to have to shut down about half of their production. They can keep producing because they can refine it domestically,” he said.

Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group added that Iran has already dealt with similar conditions during earlier sanctions periods and has developed strategies to manage reduced export capacity.

“I don’t think it’s going to do tremendous damage to their infrastructure,” he said. “They know how to do this. They’ve done it before.”

According to Brew, Iran has already adjusted its export patterns, reducing crude oil shipments loaded onto tankers from roughly 11 million barrels per week to about 6–8 million barrels.

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