Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

US, Iran Hold First Direct Talks in Over Four Decades


(MENAFN) Pakistan is hosting what officials and analysts are calling the most consequential diplomatic encounter in over four decades, as U.S. and Iranian delegations sat down Saturday in Islamabad for direct negotiations aimed at ending a conflict that has killed thousands and rattled global energy markets — all under a fragile two-week ceasefire.

The high-stakes summit, dubbed the Islamabad Talks, is being held at an undisclosed, heavily secured location in the Pakistani capital. Pakistani officials indicated the negotiations could stretch over "several days."

U.S. Vice President JD Vance is heading the American delegation, joined by President Donald Trump's Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. On the Iranian side, Parliament Speaker Bagher Qalibaf leads a senior contingent that includes Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and National Security Council deputy Ali Bagheri Kani.

Vance struck a cautious but open tone ahead of the talks, saying his team would meet the Iranians with "open hands," expecting the negotiations to be "positive," but said Trump gave them "some pretty clear guidelines," and warned against "bad faith," if any, from Tehran.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will represent Islamabad at the table. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has described the negotiations as a "make-or-break to seek a permanent ceasefire." Both delegations are also scheduled to hold separate meetings with Sharif, a senior government official told media.

A Moment Decades in the Making
Pakistani academic Munawar Hussain Pahnwar told Anadolu the talks represent "a turning point in the history of the relationship between" the U.S. and Iran, with implications stretching across the Middle East and global politics since Tehran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"If succeeded, this engagement would change the nature of the diplomatic relationship between the two longtime foes," said Pahnwar, an associate professor at the Area Study Centre for Africa, North and South America at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad.

Veteran Pakistani diplomat Shamshad Ahmad echoed that assessment, telling media by phone that the talks are "most significant" since 1979 — and far broader in consequence than a bilateral matter. The talks "are important for the global peace as whole world is affected, economy is choked, and there is energy crisis," said Ahmad, who served as foreign secretary in 1998 when Pakistan conducted its last nuclear test.

How the Crisis Unfolded
Regional hostilities erupted on Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran, resulting in more than 3,000 deaths according to Iranian authorities. Tehran responded with drone and missile strikes targeting Israel, as well as Jordan, Iraq, and Gulf states hosting American military assets. Iran also moved to restrict maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, setting off an energy crisis across Asia. At least 13 U.S. servicemen have been killed, with dozens more wounded and billions of dollars in military assets damaged.

Nuclear-armed Pakistan, working alongside Türkiye, China, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, brokered a two-week ceasefire on Wednesday — 39 days into the conflict — paving the way for the Islamabad talks.

What Each Side Wants
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi confirmed that Tehran's proposed 10-point framework has been accepted as the negotiating foundation. Iranian demands include non-aggression guarantees, continued control of the Strait of Hormuz, recognition of its right to uranium enrichment, the lifting of all U.S. primary and secondary sanctions, termination of UN Security Council and IAEA resolutions against Iran, war damage compensation, and the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.

Trump, however, has demanded Iran halt its nuclear program, curtail its ballistic missile capabilities, and dismantle its regional proxy networks — threatening strikes on critical infrastructure should Tehran walk away without a deal.

U.S.-based Iran expert Trita Parsi noted the Iranian delegation's composition is "large and senior" level, drawing parallels to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal negotiations. He flagged on X that "Qalibaf may meet directly w/ Vance(!)," pointing to the prospect of a historic face-to-face between the Iranian parliament speaker and the American vice president — an extraordinary scenario given decades of estrangement.

Pakistani officials confirmed to media that the format will combine direct and indirect dialogue.

Cautious Optimism, Deep Mistrust
Ali Vaez, Iran project director and senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, told media the "upgraded seniority in each delegation is a signal that they both mean business." He described the Iranian team's composition as one that "reflects both the diplomatic and political/security elements of the regime."

On Qalibaf's role, Vaez said he "may be able to secure some buy-in, but any potential agreement is likely to be met some internal pushback," pointing to the outsized influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The senior ranks of the Iranian establishment "remain deeply mistrustful of the US and seem confident - arguably overconfident - on what the war has done for their leverage," he warned, adding it was "too soon to know whether and how much the past few weeks have shifted Tehran's thinking."

Vaez also cautioned that "previous talks and the contrasting understandings of the ceasefire show that even having a fundamental baseline on the parameters can be a challenge before getting into the technical details."

The 1979 Rupture
The depth of the diplomatic chasm being bridged in Islamabad traces back to Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, when the U.S.-backed Pahlavi dynasty was overthrown and Ayatollah Khomeini became the republic's first supreme leader. Months later, protesters seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 66 hostages for 444 days and triggering a complete breakdown in bilateral relations. Both embassies were shuttered, and Iran has since operated only a small consulate — known as the Interests Section of Iran — from within the Pakistani Embassy compound in Washington.

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