El Niño Is Coming To Costa Rica: NMI Forecasts Up To A 30% Drop In Rainfall And Rising Temperatures

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The National Meteorological Institute (NMI) confirmed on Wednesday the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon in Costa Rica in 2026. As a result, a reduction of up to 30% in rainfall and a rise in temperatures are expected.

This was reported by Werner Stolz, director of the NMI, at a press conference at the Presidential Palace.

“There is a high probability that an El Niño event will develop in the second half of this year, which could have a significant impact on Costa Rica,” Stolz said.

“This scenario implies a reduction in rainfall across the country, with estimated deficits of between 10% and 30%,” he warned.

Regarding temperatures, anomalies of between half a degree and 1 degree Celsius above normal are expected. The province of Guanacaste is expected to record the highest temperatures.

“El Niño is usually associated with a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. However, in our country, we can expect at least one that will indirectly affect us between June 1 and November 30, which is the hurricane season,” the director added.

International models

The NMI's assessment of the phenomenon's effects on Costa Rica comes after international climate models warned of its imminent arrival this year. This was reported by El Observador.

According to seasonal models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, warming is expected to peak between September and October. Some scenarios show anomalies approaching +2 °C, raising the possibility of a more intense event.

For its part, the Prediction Center

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated in March that the event could occur between June and August.

Although some scenarios in the European model suggest more pronounced warming, which could lead to what is known as a“Super El Niño,” experts caution that there is still no certainty regarding the magnitude of the phenomenon.

Long-term climate forecasts change as the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere evolves. Therefore, the intensity will remain under close watch in the coming months.

Strong El Niño events have occurred in years such as 1982, 1997, 2015, and 2023, causing droughts, rising temperatures, and changes in rainfall patterns in various regions of the world.

What is the impact?

The impact of the phenomenon will depend on when it takes hold. In Costa Rica, El Niño typically alters wind, rainfall, and temperature patterns.

“When El Niño conditions occur, trade winds tend to intensify. This causes a change in wind speed and direction and hinders the formation of cyclonic systems,” explained Rodrigo Castillo of the Center for Geophysical Research (Cigefi).

As a result, the Atlantic hurricane season tends to weaken, while more cyclones may occur in the Pacific.

At the same time, this atmospheric pattern causes changes in rainfall distribution across the country.

. Pacific side: Stronger winds reduce the transport of moisture from the ocean, which typically results in drier-than-normal conditions.

. Caribbean side: The intensification of the trade winds promotes the inflow of moisture, so rainfall may increase.

In addition, during the dry season, this phenomenon can lead to higher temperatures. This occurs because the reduction in moisture transport allows for greater solar radiation and clearer skies.

The post El Niño Is Coming To Costa Rica: NMI Forecasts Up To A 30% Drop in Rainfall and Rising Temperatures appeared first on The Costa Rica News.

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