France Faces Sharp Decline in Student Numbers by 2035

(MENAFN) France could see nearly 1.7 million fewer students enrolled by 2035, according to projections from the Education Ministry.

The ministry indicated that this would amount to a 14% decline in student numbers across both public schools and private institutions under contract.

Education Minister Edouard Geffray explained that the projections are designed to help local authorities anticipate shifts in school demand and adjust their planning accordingly.

The expected decrease stems from a long-term decline in birth rates that began in 2010 and has accelerated in recent years. In 2025, France recorded 645,000 births, nearly 25% fewer than in 2010.

Primary schools are projected to lose over 930,000 students, while secondary schools could see enrollment fall by almost 744,000. The reduction is expected to start with preschools and elementary schools, eventually affecting middle and high schools.

Paris is likely to experience the most significant impact, with primary school enrollment potentially dropping by as much as 29%. Nationwide, the decline will become apparent in the 2026 school year, with more than 160,000 fewer students than in 2025. Preschools alone could see a decrease of 46,500 pupils.

The ministry emphasized that no schools will close in 2026 without approval from local mayors and stated that the projections are intended to support ongoing discussions between the state and local authorities.

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