Middle East Oil Production Remains Disrupted Amid Iran Conflict

(MENAFN) The ongoing conflict in Iran is expected to keep more than 9 million barrels per day of crude production offline from major Middle Eastern producers in April, disrupting regional energy flows and affecting global markets, according to recent projections.

Reports indicate that in March, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively cut 7.5 million barrels per day, with outages expected to rise to 9.1 million barrels per day in April. Limited oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz has caused storage levels to fill quickly in countries dependent on the channel for exports.

Forecasts assume the conflict ends by late April, in which case shut-in production would decline to 6.7 million barrels per day in May. Recovery for affected producers is expected to be gradual, returning near pre-conflict levels by late 2026.

The outlook also anticipates an increased US supply response. Rising crude prices have led to expectations that US production will average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026 and rise to 13.8 million barrels per day in 2027, an upward revision of roughly 0.5 million barrels per day compared with previous estimates.

Crude prices are projected to remain elevated in the near term. Brent crude averaged $103 per barrel in March and is forecast to peak at $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, before gradually easing as previously shut-in production resumes. Analysts note that a geopolitical risk premium will likely keep prices above pre-conflict levels for some time.

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