Reliance Shares Crash 6% In Two Days: What Explains The Drop & What Lies Ahead

Reliance Industries shares have fallen sharply, dropping 6% in two days and wiping out more than Rs 1 lakh crore in market capitalisation. The decline pushed India's most valuable company below the Rs 18 lakh crore mark, dragging benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty.

On Monday, the stock slipped over 4% to Rs 1,290.30, its lowest level in nearly a year. The selloff has made Reliance the top loser on benchmark indices, which remained marginally lower in afternoon trade.

Technical Pressure Mounts

At present, Reliance shares are trading near their 200‐week moving average and yearly pivot support around Rs 1,260. This zone is seen as critical by market participants. Technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and DMI reflect a bearish undertone, suggesting momentum remains weak in the short term.

Analysts note that if the stock sustains above Rs 1,260 for several sessions, it could trigger a short‐term rebound. A stable close above this level may attract fresh buying, with Rs 1,360 identified as immediate resistance.

Export Duties Add To Weakness

The broader setup has deteriorated, with the stock forming lower highs and lower lows while trading below both its 50‐day and 200‐day moving averages. The reinstatement of export duties on diesel and aviation turbine fuel has added to the pressure. Reliance's Jamnagar refineries produce nearly five million tonnes of ATF annually, much of which is exported.

While RSI readings suggest the possibility of a near‐term bounce, analysts caution that recovery would require the stock to move back above Rs 1,350. Until then, Rs 1,340 is expected to act as resistance. If weakness persists, the stock could slide towards the Rs 1,250–1,200 range, where stronger support may emerge.

Breakdown Signals Long-Term Shift

The recent decline ended a long sideways trend that had kept Reliance shares between Rs 1,600 and Rs 1,330 since April 2025. The breach of multi‐month support at Rs 1,330 was accompanied by heavy trading volumes, underscoring strong selling consensus.

Analysts warn that any relief rally toward Rs 1,340–1,380 is likely to face supply pressure, as traders look to exit positions. The stock has already fallen 3% in the past week, 8% in the past month, and nearly 18% in 2026 so far. Over longer horizons, Reliance shares have gained 11% in three years and 31% in five years, but the current trajectory signals a deepened bearish bias.

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