Zelensky May Be Defying Trump With Strikes On Russian Oil

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved toward that goal when he temporarily waived US sanctions on purchases of Russian oil – first extending the waiver to India, then to all buyers. But Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have greatly complicated those plans.

The result could be further reductions in global supply, prolonged price spikes, reduced consumer spending worldwide and therefore indirect damage to the US economy.

To be sure, it was argued here that the US might cynically seek to worsen the global energy crisis, calculating that it could manage the systemic consequences by retreating to the Americas while destabilizing Afro-Eurasia and then dividing and ruling it.

While that scenario is still possible, the Trump administration does not appear to prefer it at present, as suggested by the temporary sanctions waiver on Russian oil purchases – though it could still adapt to that scenario if it transpires.

For these reasons, Trump and his team might not have pre-approved Ukraine's recent strikes against Russia's energy infrastructure – in which case they would have been a unilateral decision by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the expense of US interests.

If so, Zelensky may have sought to exploit Trump's hyper-focus on the Iran war to continue hitting the Kremlin's revenue by reducing its energy exports and the budgetary income derived from them, all in an attempt to pressure Moscow into concessions.

While the US is also pressuring Russia“to make more concessions” – as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted in a recent interview – strikes on energy infrastructure may not be Washingto's preferred method. Trump may therefore chastise and even punish Zelensky if the strikes continue.