Bitcoin Tests $65K As Rate Hike Odds Cross 52%

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Bitcoin & Crypto Daily Report · March 30, 2026 · Covering March 28–29 Weekend Session

BTC Price $67,363 ▲ +1.08% · weekend bounce H: $67,777 · L: $64,937 ETH Price $2,047 ▲ +2.14% · reclaimed $2K H: $2,058 · L: $1,937 Week Chg (BTC) −4.9% 5th consecutive weekly loss Fear & Greed Extreme Fear ~10 Rate hike prob now 52% 1

Markets now price a 52% probability of a Fed rate HIKE by year-end - the most hawkish repricing since the war began. Futures markets have crossed the 50% threshold for the first time, pricing a rate increase rather than a cut. Morningstar's Preston Caldwell forecasts PCE inflation accelerating to 3.5% by April as the oil shock feeds through. The University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectation surged to 5.0% - the highest since late 2022. Fed Governor Barr warned that recurring price shocks risk "de-anchoring" expectations, invoking the 1970s parallel. BTC is now trapped in a $65,000–$75,000 range with no rate-cut catalyst on the horizon.

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BTC touched $64,937 Friday - the lowest since February's capitulation - before bouncing to $67,363 over the weekend. The Friday selloff to $64,937 tested the February lows before weekend dip-buying lifted BTC back above $67,000. The session marked the fifth consecutive weekly loss, the longest losing streak since October 2022. ETH briefly broke below $1,937 before recovering to $2,047. Volume declined to $3.09 billion as weekend liquidity thinned. The CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, removing a near-term regulatory catalyst.

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Fed Chair nominee Warsh hearing could come as soon as April 13 - BNP Paribas adds BTC/ETH ETNs in France. Punchbowl reported Kevin Warsh's Senate Banking Committee hearing could be scheduled as early as the week of April 13. Senator Warren has pushed back against the nomination. Warsh's confirmation would be the most significant Fed leadership change since the war began. BNP Paribas added six Bitcoin and Ether ETNs for French retail clients, expanding the European institutional adoption that is building independently of US-centric narratives. Walmart-backed OnePay added SOL, MATIC, and ARB tokens.

01Session Data

Asset	Price	24h Chg	Volume
BTC	$67,363	+1.08%	$3.09B
ETH	$2,047	+2.14%	$2.25B
SOL	$83.45	+1.19%	$345.2M
XRP	$1.3507	+1.15%	$154.3M
DOGE	$0.0926	+1.42%	$38.8M
HYPE	$38.29	−4.05%	$34.8M
BTC Dominance	~58.6%

Perpetuals Movers Top Gainers NOM +35.49% ONT +17.06% SENT +14.04% ZEC +3.98% Top Losers BCH −5.85% HYPE −4.05% RIVER −3.82% STO −2.71% 02Market Commentary

Today's Bitcoin price today analysis covers a weekend that tested the February lows and found buyers. BTC touched $64,937 on Friday before weekend dip-buying lifted it back above $67,000 - a $2,800 range that underscores the market's nervousness heading into the new week. The fifth consecutive weekly loss matches the October 2022 streak, a record for this cycle. But the bounce from the lows, combined with ETH's recovery above $2,000, suggests the capitulation is not yet complete - sellers are running out of momentum before reaching the structural floor at $60,062. This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of cryptocurrency markets and Latin American financial markets.

The macro picture has taken the most hawkish turn since the war began. Futures markets now price a 52% probability of a rate HIKE by year-end - the first time that threshold has crossed 50%. Morningstar forecasts PCE accelerating to 3.5% by April. Michigan 1-year inflation expectations at 5.0% are the highest since 2022. Fed Governor Barr explicitly invoked the 1970s de-anchoring parallel, warning that oil-driven price shocks could become self-reinforcing. The CLARITY Act's failure in the Senate removes the legislative catalyst that crypto had been counting on for Q2.

The structural counter-narrative continues building underneath. BNP Paribas ' addition of six BTC/ETH ETNs for French retail clients extends the European institutional adoption pipeline. Walmart-backed OnePay added SOL, MATIC, and ARB, bringing crypto exposure to a mainstream consumer app. The Warsh hearing - possibly as early as April 13 - is the most important near-term macro catalyst: a new Fed chair who favours looser policy could instantly reprice rate expectations. Lido's proposed $20M LDO buyback and Sam Altman's World Foundation selling $65M in WLD at record lows show that even within crypto, divergence between builders and sellers is accelerating.

03Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows the weekend candle at $67,388 (O 65,961 / H 67,722 / L 65,741), a constructive hammer-style candle with a long lower wick. The MACD at −368/−458/−826 has worsened materially - all three lines are deeply negative and diverging, the worst reading since the war selloff began. RSI at 47.46 (fast) and 44.54 (slow) has both lines below 50, confirming the bearish momentum regime. Price is sitting between the lower Bollinger at $65,297 and the Kijun-sen at $68,374. The 200-day SMA at $90,828 is now 35% above - a gap that only occurred during the 2022 bear market.

The February 6 capitulation low of $60,062 remains the structural floor. Friday's $64,937 low was a 7.5% test of that level - close enough to activate stop-loss clusters but not close enough to trigger a flush. A break of $65,000 with volume would target $60,000. A close above $68,374 (Kijun-sen) would signal the weekend bounce has legs.

Support & Resistance

Level	Price	Source
Resistance 2	$70,024	BB upper / $70K psych
Resistance 1	$68,374	Kijun-sen / BB mid
Current	$67,363	March 30, 2026
Support 1	$65,297	Lower Bollinger Band
Support 2	$60,062	Feb 6 capitulation low

04Forward Look FED'S WARSH HEARING → POSSIBLY APRIL 13

Punchbowl reports the Senate Banking Committee hearing for Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh could come as soon as the week of April 13. Senator Warren has pushed back. If confirmed, Warsh would represent the most significant Fed leadership change since the war began - and his policy stance on rates would immediately reprice all risk assets.

APRIL PCE → MORNINGSTAR: 3.5% FORECAST

Morningstar forecasts PCE accelerating to 3.5% by April as oil shock effects feed through. If realised, it would be the highest PCE since May 2023 and would cement the rate-hike narrative. The April 9 release date is now the single most important macro event for crypto in Q2.

IRAN DEADLINE → APRIL 6 (7 DAYS)

The extended April 6 deadline approaches without any diplomatic progress. The CLARITY Act has stalled. BTC's 24/7 market continues to be the first liquid asset to reprice any geopolitical headline. The next week will be defined by whether the weekend bounce sustains into Monday's equity open.

05Verdict

The fifth consecutive weekly loss places BTC in its longest downtrend since October 2022 - but the weekend bounce from $64,937 to $67,363 suggests the market is not ready to capitulate through the February $60,062 low. The macro regime has shifted to the most hawkish since the war began: a 52% rate-hike probability, 5.0% Michigan inflation expectations, and the CLARITY Act dead in the Senate. The structural bull case (BNP Paribas ETNs, Morgan Stanley ETF, Walmart OnePay, whale accumulation) is building for Q2–Q3, but cannot overcome a potential Fed rate hike in real time. The Warsh hearing on April 13 is the catalyst that could change the trajectory.

Bias: BEARISH with structural floor at $60K. The weekly downtrend, MACD deterioration, and RSI below 50 all point lower. A close above $68,374 (Kijun-sen) would signal the weekend bounce has momentum. A break of $65,000 targets the $60,062 February low. The April 6 deadline, April 9 PCE, and April 13 Warsh hearing form the most concentrated catalyst window since the war began.

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