Merval Falls 1.57% As Argentina Country Risk Surges To 633 Bps - 2026 High - While YPF Bucks The Selloff

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The Rio Times · Argentina Market Report

Morning Edition · March 23, 2026 · Covering March 20 Session

The Big Three

1

The S&P Merval dropped 1.57% to 2,725,326 in pesos and 2.6% to $1,836.96 in dollar terms, but still posted its best week since February. Friday's decline erased some of the week's gains, yet the index retained a weekly advance of 3.1% in pesos and 2.1% in dollars - the strongest performance so far in March. The session opened at 2,768,681, touched a high of 2,801,580, then collapsed to a low of 2,709,175 before recovering into the close. The Merval remains 17.3% below its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502.

2

Country risk surged 5.1% to 633 basis points - a new 2026 high and the highest level since December 11, 2025. Argentine sovereign bonds in New York suffered broad-based losses of up to 1.7%, led by the Global 2041, Global 2035 (−1.5%), and Global 2038 (−1.5%). Ámbito reported the selloff reflects the global recrudescence of the Middle East war and rising oil prices, which have triggered a repricing of risk across all emerging market fixed income. The spike threatens to unwind months of spread compression achieved under Milei's fiscal consolidation program and the $20 billion U.S. support package.

3

YPF was the sole bright spot, rising 1.0% on BYMA and 0.8% in ADR terms as $112 Brent validates Argentina's Vaca Muerta thesis. The state oil company bucked the broad selloff as investors recognized the asymmetric benefit of triple-digit oil for a producer that is rapidly scaling unconventional output. Every other major index constituent declined: Grupo Supervielle led losses at −4.4%, Central Puerto fell 3.9%, and Transportadora de Gas del Norte dropped 3.5%. Among ADRs, IRSA plunged 5.6% and Bioceres Crop continued its sustained selloff with a 4.6% decline.

01 Market Snapshot

Indicator	Close	Chg
S&P Merval (ARS)	2,725,326	−1.57%
S&P Merval (USD)	$1,836.96	−2.60%
Blue Dollar	ARS 1,405	−1.39%
Official Dollar	ARS 1,410	+0.40%
CCL Dollar	ARS 1,474.15	unch
Country Risk (EMBI+)	633 bps	+5.10%
Merval ATH (Jan 28)	3,296,502	−17.33%

02 Equities

The Merval index today closed at 2,725,326 after a volatile session that saw the index shed 1.57% in pesos and a steeper 2.6% in dollar terms to $1,836.96. This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets. Despite Friday's pullback, the Merval posted a weekly gain of 3.1% in pesos - the best performance in March and the strongest since late February - suggesting that the worst of the post-ATH correction may be finding a base.

The session's damage was concentrated in financials and utilities. Grupo Supervielle led decliners at −4.4%, followed by Central Puerto (−3.9%) and Transportadora de Gas del Norte (−3.5%). The financial sector's weakness reflects the country risk spike to 633 bps, which directly widens the implied discount rate for Argentine banks. Among ADRs in New York, IRSA suffered the heaviest loss at −5.6%, while Central Puerto dropped 4.4% and agtech firm Bioceres Crop continued its persistent slide with a 4.6% decline.

YPF was the sole positive outlier, advancing 1.0% on BYMA and 0.8% in ADR terms. The state oil company benefits directly from Brent above $112: Vaca Muerta's unconventional production is scaling rapidly, and every dollar added to the barrel improves the economics of Argentina's shale export strategy. The YPF divergence from the broader market underscores a thematic shift: energy names are repricing as Hormuz beneficiaries while the rest of the BYMA complex absorbs the global risk-off impulse.

03 Currency

The blue dollar closed Friday at ARS 1,405, down 1.39% from the session open, while the official rate edged to ARS 1,410. El Cronista reported that the blue's weekly volatility of 18.2% remained below its annual volatility of 20.9%, suggesting relatively contained behavior despite the global turmoil. The contado con liquidación (CCL) held at ARS 1,474.15, implying a gap of roughly 4.5% over the official rate - a historically narrow spread that reflects the ongoing normalization of Argentina's multiple exchange rate system under the post-cepo band framework implemented in April 2025.

The year-to-date picture remains constructive: the blue dollar started 2026 at ARS 1,530 and has fallen 6.2% to current levels, a remarkable peso appreciation driven by Milei's fiscal surplus, the BCRA band system, and the $20 billion U.S. support package. However, the bond market tells a different story. Sovereign dollar-denominated bonds fell up to 1.7% on Friday, pushing the country risk to 633 bps - its highest since mid-December 2025. The divergence between a stable FX market and a deteriorating sovereign credit spread suggests that global risk repricing, not domestic fundamentals, is the primary driver.

04 Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows the Merval consolidating in a range between the 2,700,000 support zone and the 2,800,000 resistance area. Friday's close at 2,725,326 sits just above the lower end of this range. The MACD histogram has turned slightly positive at 21,960, a subtle improvement from the deeply negative readings of early March, but both the MACD line (−46,229) and signal line (−70,190) remain firmly below zero - indicating that the broader bearish momentum has not yet reversed. The early positive crossover of the histogram is the first potential sign of a momentum shift.

The RSI at 48.19 is in neutral territory, having recovered significantly from the sub-35 oversold readings seen during the early March selloff. The slow RSI at 40.39 is still relatively depressed but trending upward. The 200-day SMA at approximately 2,474,114 sits 9.2% below current price, confirming that the primary bull trend from late 2024 remains structurally intact. The key technical question is whether the Merval can hold the 2,700,000 zone - a level that has been tested multiple times since mid-March - or whether a break lower would open the path toward the 2,530,000 area and eventually the 200-day SMA.

05 Key Levels

Level	Price	Source
Resistance 3	2,906,000	Upper Bollinger / Feb high
Resistance 2	2,831,806	50-day EMA / MA cluster
Resistance 1	2,789,095	20-day EMA
Friday Close	2,725,326	March 20, 2026
Support 1	2,696,244	Near-term support
Support 2	2,533,000	March low / correction base
Support 3	2,474,114	200-day SMA (bull/bear line)

06 Global Context

The global backdrop remains dominated by the Iran–Hormuz crisis. The Strait has been effectively closed for 19 days, choking off 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent to $112.33 on Friday. For Argentina, this creates a unique duality: YPF and Vaca Muerta producers benefit enormously from triple-digit oil, but the country risk spike to 633 bps signals that global investors are reducing emerging market exposure indiscriminately, regardless of country-specific fundamentals.

U.S. markets fell sharply on Friday: the S&P 500 dropped 1.51%, the VIX surged to 26.78, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.39% as the Fed's hawkish hold destroyed rate-cut expectations. Ámbito noted that the recrudescence of war - particularly direct attacks on energy infrastructure in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait - amplified the global risk-off move. Argentine CER bonds advanced up to 1.5%, reflecting a domestic flight to inflation-protected assets even as dollar-denominated sovereigns sold off. JP Morgan recently identified the key conditions Argentina needs to regain emerging market status, a process that the country risk spike complicates but does not derail.

07 Looking Ahead

The week ahead pivots on whether the Merval can defend the 2,700,000 support level that has been tested repeatedly. The country risk at 633 bps is the most pressing concern: a sustained move above 650 would represent a significant deterioration in Argentina's sovereign credit perception and could trigger additional portfolio outflows from emerging market funds. Conversely, any de-escalation in the Hormuz crisis would immediately compress spreads and provide relief for the bond complex.

Domestically, the Milei reform agenda continues to underpin structural optimism. The October midterm elections delivered approximately 41% of the vote for the president's coalition, improving legislative capacity for fiscal consolidation, privatizations, and deregulation. The BCRA 's post-cepo band system - which allows 1% monthly expansion from the initial ARS 1,000 floor - continues to operate smoothly, and the narrow 4.5% blue-official gap reflects genuine FX normalization. The fixed income curve has compressed dramatically, with short-end rates now below 28% TIR. The question is whether these domestic positives can withstand an extended period of global risk aversion driven by the Hormuz crisis.

08 Verdict

The Merval's 1.57% Friday decline masked what was actually the strongest week of March (+3.1% in pesos). The technical picture is improving at the margin: the MACD histogram has turned slightly positive, RSI has recovered from oversold to neutral at 48.19, and the 200-day SMA at 2,474,114 provides a structural floor 9.2% below. The primary bull trend from late 2024 remains intact, and the correction from the January ATH appears to be forming a base in the 2,700,000–2,800,000 range.

However, the country risk spike to 633 bps is a warning signal that cannot be ignored. Argentine sovereign bonds are being sold as part of a global EM de-risking, not because of domestic policy failures - but the distinction matters less when portfolio outflows are mechanical. The YPF divergence is the most important intra-session signal: energy names are the clear beneficiaries of the Hormuz premium, while financials and utilities absorb the full weight of the risk repricing. A ceasefire would immediately reverse this dynamic, compressing country risk and lifting the entire complex at the expense of YPF.

Bias: NEUTRAL with a bullish tilt. The primary uptrend is intact above the 200-day SMA, the weekly performance was positive, and the MACD is beginning to turn. A daily close above 2,789,095 would confirm re-acceleration toward 2,831,806 and upgrade the bias to Bullish. A break below 2,696,244 would shift to Bearish and target the 2,533,000 March low. Country risk above 650 bps is the key downside trigger; a Hormuz ceasefire is the key upside catalyst.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data sourced from BYMA, TradingView, Investing, Ámbito, El Cronista, Infobae, La Nación, Bloomberg Línea, Rava Bursátil, and Trading Economics. © 2026 The Rio Times.

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