Polymarket Death Threat Raises Stakes Of Iran War Reporting

“Checking those X accounts, both appeared to be involved in gambling on the Polymarket betting site,” he explained.“As far as I now understand, the emails I received were intended to confirm whether or not a missile had hit Israel on March 10 in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket.”

Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market where users buy and sell shares tied to real‐world events, enabling them to bet on the likelihood of future events, including those in wartime.

Fabian found that the people clamoring for his attention had put money on whether Iran would strike Israel on March 10.“This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel's soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No',” the website explained. However, it stipulates that intercepted missiles would not receive a“yes” verdict.

As of March 16, gamblers had wagered more than $14 million on the event.

Over the next several days, requests continued to roll in from people demanding a correction to the story.

One user presented a fabricated email, purportedly from Fabian to Daniel, stating that the Israel Defense Forces had confirmed the missiles were intercepted and that he planned to correct the story.

Fabian was later approached by a colleague at another publication, who said his friend had asked him to reach out for the story to be changed. After being confronted, the friend admitted that he had money on the wager too, and offered some of his winnings to Fabian's colleague if he could persuade the journalist to change the story.

By the weekend, the messages had become violent. Fabian said a user identified as Haim accosted him with several threatening messages in Hebrew over WhatsApp:

Haim also threatened Fabian by referring“with specific details” to his home address, his parents, and family.

After receiving several more threats and being contacted by someone purporting to be a“lawyer,” Fabian went to the police, who he said are now investigating the situation.

The threats continued into Monday, after Fabian ran into a bomb shelter amid another Iranian missile attack.

“The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed,” Fabian said.“But I do worry that other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings.”

He said that journalists are in a unique position to“exploit their knowledge for insider trading on the platform.”

Polymarket and other similar“prediction market” apps like Kalshi have come under similar scrutiny in the United States for allowing users to place suspiciously timed bets on military actions taken by the Trump administration.

Earlier this month, the watchdog group Public Citizen sent a letter to the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, outlining a series of“highly suspicious” bets made just before President Donald Trump launched strikes against Iran on February 28.

Among the big winners were what the Wall Street Journal described as“six suspected insiders,” whose immaculately timed wagers netted them a $1.2 million profit.