Ibovespa Rallies 1.25% On Oil Relief, Treasury

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · March 17, 2026 · Covering March 16 Session

Ibovespa 179,875 ▲ +1.25% · +2,222 pts H: 181,255 · L: 177,656 USD/BRL R$ 5.229 ▼ −1.60% Real rallies on oil relief Selic 15.00% Copom: Tomorrow Volume R$ 22.7B At 50-day average 1

Oil relief rally lifts Ibovespa 1.25% as Brent falls 5% on Hormuz diplomacy. Trump called on allied nations to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz, while reports confirmed Iranian, Indian, and Chinese vessels had successfully transited the strait. Brent crude fell roughly 5% on the day after surging 8.6% the prior week. The Ibovespa snapped a three-session losing streak, touching 181,255 at the high before fading into the close.

2

Treasury intervention crushes DI curve by 39 basis points ahead of Copom. The National Treasury executed two buyback auctions - repurchasing 14.8 million LTNs and 2.45 million NTN-Fs in the first, then 3.55 million NTN-Bs in the second - to normalize liquidity and relieve long-end pressure. DI futures dropped up to 39 bps, and Copom pricing shifted to 65% probability for a 25 bp cut, with maintenance bets receding.

3

Focus survey confirms the pivot - market now expects 25 bp cut after 23 weeks at 50 bp. Monday's Boletim Focus showed analysts shifting to a 25 bp Selic cut for March 18, ending a 23-week streak of 50 bp consensus. The IPCA 2026 projection was revised up from 3.91% to 4.10%, while the year-end Selic expectation rose from 12.13% to 12.25%. The IBC-Br activity index came in at +0.78% for January, slightly below the 0.85% consensus.

01Session Data

Metric	Value	Chg
Ibovespa Close	179,875.44	+1.25%
Intraday High	181,254.85
Intraday Low	177,656.24
Volume	R$ 22.7B
USD/BRL	R$ 5.229	−1.60%
DXY	~99.40	−0.6%
Brent Crude	~$98.00	−5.0%
Gold	~$5,020	−0.8%
VIX	~25.50	−6.2%
U.S. 10Y Treasury	~4.30%	+2 bps
S&P 500	6,699.38	+1.01%
Selic Rate	15.00%

02Market Commentary

The Ibovespa rose 1.25% on Monday to close at 179,875, snapping a three-session losing streak in a broad-based relief rally driven by falling oil prices and coordinated policy intervention. The session marked the index's best day since March 9, recovering more than half of Friday's decline as risk appetite returned across global equities. This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of B3 and Latin American financial markets.

The primary catalyst was the sharp retreat in crude oil, with Brent falling approximately 5% after Trump called on allied nations to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Reports that Iranian, Indian, and Chinese vessels had successfully transited the strait further defused the energy crisis premium. Bruno Shahini, investment specialist at Nomad, noted that expectations of diplomatic progress and coordinated efforts to resume tanker traffic reduced the geopolitical risk premium.

Domestically, the National Treasury's aggressive bond-market intervention was the session's defining event. Through two buyback auctions - repurchasing LTNs, NTN-Fs, and NTN-Bs - the Treasury engineered a 39 basis point drop in DI futures, normalizing liquidity after the extreme stress of the prior week. The move was interpreted as a deliberate effort to smooth conditions ahead of Wednesday's Copom decision, shifting rate-cut pricing to 65% probability for a 25 bp reduction.

The Monday Boletim Focus confirmed the market's pivot: after 23 consecutive weeks of consensus for a 50 bp cut, analysts now expect 25 bp at Wednesday's meeting. The IPCA 2026 forecast was revised up from 3.91% to 4.10%, reflecting oil-driven inflation. The IBC-Br showed 0.78% growth in January, slightly below consensus. Wall Street added tailwind, with the S&P 500 rising 1.01% and the Nasdaq gaining 1.22%, driven by dip-buying in tech and the oil price relief. U.S. industrial production came in above expectations at +0.2% vs. +0.1%.

03Technical Analysis

The Ibovespa closed at 179,875 with a bullish candle that opened at the session low of 177,656 and rallied 3,599 points to a high of 181,255 before pulling back modestly. The MACD histogram remains negative at −1,457.94, but the signal line at 1,214.97 and the MACD line at −242.97 are converging - a potential precursor to a bullish crossover if buying momentum persists. The RSI reads 52.27 on the 14-day and 45.58 on the faster signal, both edging higher after the prior week's decline.

Price remains above the 200-day SMA at 152,908, keeping the broader structural uptrend intact. The recovery lifted the index back above the Kijun-sen and toward the mid-range of the Bollinger Band structure. However, the Ichimoku cloud upper boundary near 181,149 acted as resistance during the session, with the index failing to hold above that level on the afternoon fade. Volume at R$22.7 billion was at the 50-session average, suggesting moderate conviction.

Monday's bullish candle needs follow-through to confirm a trend reversal rather than a dead-cat bounce. The 181,149–181,814 zone represents the near-term resistance cluster. A confirmed break above that level would shift the picture decisively bullish; failure keeps the recovery fragile and the broader three-week downtrend intact.

Support & Resistance

Level	Points	Source
Resistance 2	181,814	Tenkan-sen
Resistance 1	181,149	Ichimoku cloud upper
Close	179,875	March 16, 2026
Support 1	178,656	Kijun-sen
Support 2	176,354	Senkou Span B
Support 3	176,163	Lower Bollinger Band
Structural Support	152,908	200-day SMA

04Forward Look COPOM DECISION → MARCH 18

The first Selic cut since the current cycle peaked at 15% is expected Wednesday evening. Market pricing favors 25 bp to 14.75% with 65% probability. The statement's forward guidance will matter more than the cut itself - any hint of a faster pace in subsequent meetings could reignite the equities rally, while a cautious one-and-done signal would disappoint.

FOMC DECISION → MARCH 18–19

The Fed is expected to hold at 3.50–3.75%. The updated dot plot and Powell's press conference will determine whether the two-cut baseline for 2026 holds or shifts hawkish. Monday's industrial production (+0.2% vs +0.1%) adds marginal support to the hold thesis.

HORMUZ AND OIL TRAJECTORY → ONGOING

Monday's oil sell-off suggests the market is beginning to price in partial normalization of Hormuz shipping. However, U.S. allies rejected Trump's request for warships to secure the strait, and the conflict shows no sign of resolution. A reacceleration in Brent toward $105+ would reverse the gains and reignite inflation fears ahead of both central bank decisions.

EARNINGS → POST-MARKET TONIGHT

Results from Itaúsa, Sabesp, and Natura &Co are expected Monday evening and will set Tuesday's tone. B3 reported record February volumes - average daily turnover of R$37.3 billion, up 50.1% YoY - confirming structural growth in market participation despite March's volatility.

05Verdict

Monday's 1.25% bounce was necessary but not sufficient to reverse the bearish posture that has dominated since the 192,624 peak. The rally was built on three fragile pillars - oil relief, Treasury intervention, and Wall Street strength - any of which could reverse on a single headline. The oil sell-off could snap back on another Hormuz escalation. The Treasury's bond buyback was a one-off liquidity injection, not a structural fix.

The Super Wednesday setup creates a genuinely binary environment. A dovish 25 bp Copom cut with forward guidance pointing to further reductions, combined with a neutral-to-dovish Fed, would validate the recovery and likely push the Ibovespa back above 181,000. Conversely, a hawkish Copom surprise (maintenance) or an aggressive Fed dot plot would erase Monday's gains and test the 176,354 Senkou Span B support.

The Ibovespa has erased roughly 13,000 points from its February peak, with March accumulating a 5.9% decline through Monday. The year-to-date gain stands at 11.64%. The technical picture is neutral: the MACD histogram is negative but converging, RSI is hovering near 50. Direction from here will be determined entirely by Wednesday's dual central bank decisions.

Bias: NEUTRAL - event-dependent. A daily close above 181,814 with improving breadth upgrades to Cautiously Bullish. A break below 176,354 reinstates the Bearish case.

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