COLCAP Colombia Today Edges Up 0.22% As Reficar Shutdown Tests Oil Rally

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Rio Times Daily Market Brief. Colombia Tuesday, March 17, 2026 · Covering the session of Monday, March 16, 2026 The Big Three 1. COLCAP Gained 0.22% as Oil Tailwind Held Through Kharg Uncertainty. The MSCI COLCAP opened at 2,181.38, rallied to an intraday high of 2,229.66 before surrendering gains to close at 2,185.52-up just 4.77 points (+0.22%) as Monday's promising early move faded into a tight close. The session marked the second consecutive gain after Thursday's 4.53% rout, but buying conviction remained thin. 2. Reficar Power Failure Shuts Cartagena Refinery Over Weekend. Ecopetrol reported a power supply failure on Sunday March 15 that forced the shutdown of process units at the Cartagena refinery (Reficar). The company activated contingency plans and said fuel inventories are sufficient to cover national demand. The Barrancabermeja UOPII cracking unit remains under its scheduled 74-day maintenance that began in March. 3. Wall Street Rebounded 1% as Select Tankers Navigated Hormuz. The S&P 500 rallied 1.01% to 6,699.38 on Monday after reports that select tankers had successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, partially easing the supply-disruption narrative. Brent pulled back to $101.77 from Friday's $103.14 close, while the VIX retreated 4.9% to 25.85. The Dow gained 0.83% to 46,946.41. Market Snapshot

Indicator	Value	Change
COLCAP Close (BVC)	2,185.52	+0.22%
Intraday Range	2,181.38 – 2,229.66	-
USD/COP TRM (Mar 16)	COP 3,685.53	flat
Brent Crude (Mon close)	$101.77	−1.33%
WTI Crude (Mon close)	~$97.40	−1.33%
S&P 500 (Mon close)	6,699.38	+1.01%
VIX	25.85	−4.93%
Gold (Mon)	~$5,003	−1.15%
COLCAP from ATH (2,562)	-	−14.69%

COLCAP Colombia Today: Equities

The COLCAP Colombia today opened Monday at 2,181.38 and quickly rallied to 2,229.66 in the first hour as Brent crude held above $105 in pre-market following the weekend Kharg Island strikes, lifting oil-sensitive names. However, the index surrendered nearly all of the 48-point gain through the afternoon, closing at 2,185.52 for a modest 0.22% advance. The fading rally suggested that the early oil-driven bid lacked follow-through from non-energy sectors, with financials remaining under pressure. This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of the Colombian stock market and Latin American financial markets.

For context, see our prior session's report: Colombia Stock Market COLCAP: Ecopetrol Surges 9%. Also read: COLCAP Plunges 4.5% as Oil Hits $100.

Domestically, the weekend was dominated by the Reficar power failure. Ecopetrol confirmed on Sunday that a disruption in the electricity supply forced the shutdown of the Cartagena refinery's process units, though no personnel or infrastructure damage was reported. El Tiempo reported that the company activated contingency plans and holds sufficient fuel inventories to maintain national supply. Separately, the Barrancabermeja UOPII cracking unit continues its planned 74-day maintenance, with Ecopetrol increasing gasoline imports to offset the temporary reduction in domestic refining output.

The COLCAP now sits 14.69% below its January 27 all-time high of 2,562.00. The index posted a 0.25% weekly gain for the prior week according to Valora Analitik, with the YTD return at approximately 5.45%. Trading volume for the prior week totaled COP 1.16 trillion, down 11.3% from the week before, reflecting investor caution amid the geopolitical backdrop.

Currency

The Colombian peso exchange rate today remained steady. The TRM in effect for Monday March 16 was COP 3,685.53, unchanged from the prior rate. The dollar had shed COP 110 over the prior week per Portafolio, driven by the post-election relief rally following the March 8 congressional vote and Colombia's favorable oil terms of trade as Brent holds above $100.

The USD/COP is trading well below MinHacienda's 2026 financial plan assumption of COP 3,915, which suggests that the current peso strength is ahead of official expectations. The BanRep policy rate at 10.25%-following January 30's surprise 100 bps hike-continues to attract carry-trade inflows that support the peso. The next rate decision is March 31, with the market fully priced for a hold.

However, risks are building. Oil Minister Edwin Palma told Caracol Radio on March 12 that the Hormuz crisis could force the government to revisit fuel pricing decisions. BBVA Research projects inflation could rebound to 6.5% by year-end, with potential rate hikes toward 12.25% if the oil-driven price pressures persist. A stronger peso partially offsets these imported inflation concerns, but the net effect remains uncertain while Brent stays above $100.

Technical Analysis & Chart

Monday's candle was a bearish shooting star variant: the index opened at the low of 2,181.38, rallied strongly to 2,229.66, then gave back most of the advance to close at 2,185.52. The long upper shadow signals selling pressure above 2,220 and suggests that overhead resistance is capping attempts to recover from the correction.

Momentum indicators remain bearish but stable. The MACD line at −6.73 sits above the signal at −34.16, with the histogram at −40.89 still deeply negative but showing modest narrowing. RSI reads 40.54 (fast) and 39.81 (slow), hovering just above the 40 level that has provided support in recent sessions. Neither indicator suggests an imminent breakout in either direction.

The 200-day SMA at approximately 1,975.84 sits 10.6% below current levels, confirming the long-term uptrend remains intact. Monday's intraday high of 2,229.66 tested the 2,218.69 resistance zone (the cluster of short-term moving averages) before being rejected. The index must reclaim 2,204.51 on a closing basis to shift the near-term narrative.

Key support remains at 2,163 (Thursday's intraday low from the prior week). A break below would target the 2,100 psychological level, then the 2,068.21 chart support. To the upside, the index needs a close above 2,218.69 to attempt a retest of the Bollinger midline near 2,257.76.

Key Levels

Level	Price	Significance
Resistance 3	2,302.50	Upper Bollinger Band
Resistance 2	2,257.76	Bollinger midline / MA cluster
Resistance 1	2,218.69	MA cluster / Monday intraday rejection
Last Close	2,185.52	Monday session close
Support 1	2,163.00	Prior week intraday low
Support 2	2,100.00	Psychological level
Support 3	1,975.84	200-day SMA

Global Context

Monday's global session brought a tentative relief rally after last week's pounding. The S&P 500 gained 1.01% to 6,699.38, snapping a three-session losing streak, after reports that select tankers had navigated the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, easing the most extreme supply-disruption fears. The Dow rose 0.83% to 46,946.41 with Salesforce (+2.86%), Amazon (+1.93%), and Boeing (+1.66%) leading. Nvidia climbed 1.6% ahead of its GTC conference, while Micron jumped 3.7%.

Brent crude retreated from its pre-market peak near $106 to close around $101.77, as the Hormuz transit reports undercut the most extreme disruption pricing. However, the IEA's March Oil Market Report described the current crisis as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with Middle East producers cutting at least 10 million barrels per day. The EIA projects Brent above $95 for the next two months before declining to $80 by Q3 and $70 by year-end.

For the COLCAP Colombia today, the global relief rally was partially offset by domestic refinery concerns and lingering uncertainty about the Kharg Island escalation. The Fed begins its two-day meeting today (March 17–18), with a rate hold at 3.50–3.75% widely expected. The key focus will be the updated dot plot and any hawkish language around oil-driven inflation. Core PCE at 3.1% remains well above the Fed's 2% target, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the market pricing just one rate cut in 2026, likely not before autumn.

Looking Ahead

Today/Tomorrow (March 17–18): The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting concludes Wednesday with the rate decision at 2:00 PM ET. No rate change expected, but the dot plot projections and Chair Powell's press conference will set the tone for emerging-market rate expectations through Q2. Any hawkish shift would pressure the peso and widen risk premiums on Colombian assets.

March 31: BanRep 's next rate decision. With the policy rate at 10.25% and Brent above $100 feeding into inflation expectations, the Board faces an impossible trilemma: cut to support the economy, hold to signal credibility, or hike to preempt the oil-driven inflation wave. The market expects a hold.

Reficar: Ecopetrol is investigating the cause of the Cartagena refinery power failure. Any delay in restarting the 200,000 barrels-per-day facility would increase Colombia's import dependence for refined products at a time when global refinery margins are elevated due to the Hormuz disruption.

Political calendar: The May 31 presidential first round is 10 weeks away. Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático), Claudia López (center), and Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) are the three principal candidates. The next major polling release will shape the equity risk premium on Colombian assets, which remains elevated since the February Invamer survey sent the COLCAP down 4.1% in a single session.

Verdict

Monday's session was a microcosm of the market's conflicted positioning. The COLCAP rallied 48 points intraday as Brent held above $105 in early trading, only to surrender nearly the entire move and close just 4.77 points higher. The shooting-star candle pattern signals that sellers are actively defending the 2,220 resistance zone, and the COLCAP Colombia today remains trapped in a tight range between 2,163 support and 2,229 resistance.

The Reficar shutdown adds an idiosyncratic risk layer: while Ecopetrol has assured the market that fuel supplies are secure, the timing is awkward-it comes as the Barrancabermeja UOPII unit is already offline for maintenance and global refining margins are surging due to the Hormuz blockade. Any delay in restarting Cartagena would increase the cost of gasoline imports and complicate the government's fuel pricing calculus.

Bias: Neutral. The COLCAP is stabilizing but not recovering. The third consecutive gain would require a close above 2,200 to signal a meaningful base is forming. The Fed decision Wednesday is the week's binary event; a hawkish surprise could trigger peso weakness and equity selling, while a dovish hold would provide breathing room. The 2,163–2,229 range defines the near-term battlefield.

MENAFN17032026007421016031ID1110871471