Merval Argentina Today Falls 1.4% As Country Risk Hits 601 Bps

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Rio Times Daily Market Brief. Argentina Tuesday, March 17, 2026 · Covering the session of Monday, March 16, 2026 The Big Three 1. Merval Fell 1.4% to 2,606,351 for a Third Consecutive Decline. The S&P Merval dropped 1.4% on Monday, extending its losing streak to three sessions as the Middle East conflict continued to sap risk appetite. Comercial del Plata led losses at −5.3%, followed by Banco Francés (−4.2%) and Cresud (−2.44%). Ternium bucked the trend with a +3.06% gain, while Aluar rose 2.02%. 2. Country Risk Hit 601 bps, Highest Since December 2025. Argentina's country risk breached the 600 barrier for the first time in 2026, rising 23 units on the day to 601 bps according to JP Morgan. Bonares and Globales averaged a 0.3% decline. The milestone pushes Argentina further from the informal 500 bps threshold for re-accessing international debt markets, a key policy objective of the Milei administration. 3. BCRA Bought USD 50M but Reserves Fell USD 871M on Debt Payments. The BCRA extended its reserve accumulation streak, buying USD 50 million from USD 371 million in spot volume. However, gross reserves plunged USD 871 million to USD 44,788 million-a minimum since February 5-due to approximately USD 450 million in payments to the BID and BIRF, plus USD 100 million in gold-price mark-to-market losses. Market Snapshot

Indicator	Value	Change
Merval Close (BYMA)	2,606,351	−1.40%
Country Risk (JP Morgan)	601 bps	+23 bps
Dollar Official (BNA)	ARS 1,415	−ARS 5
Dollar Blue	ARS 1,425	+ARS 10
Dollar Mayorista	ARS 1,396	−ARS 4
BCRA Band Ceiling (Mar 16)	ARS 1,632.48	-
BCRA Reserves	USD 44,788M	−USD 871M
Brent Crude	~$100.00	−3.05%
Merval from ATH (3,296,502)	-	−20.93%

Merval Argentina Today: Equities

The Merval Argentina today extended its losing streak to three sessions on Monday, dropping 1.4% to 2,606,351 as the Middle East conflict continued to drain risk appetite from emerging-market equities. The session saw a clear sector rotation: industrial and materials names gained ground while financials and real estate bore the brunt of the selling. This is part of The Rio Times' daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets.

For context, see our prior session's report: Merval Falls 1.96% but Holds Weekly Gains. Also read: Argentina's Merval Falls 2.71% as Banks Crash on Oil Shock.

Among leaders, Ternium Argentina rose 3.06% as steel prices benefited from the disruption in Middle Eastern industrial flows. Aluar gained 2.02% and Transener added 1.07%. In New York, Argentine ADRs diverged sharply: Mercado Libre surged 3.7%, Tenaris gained 1.9%, and Vista Energy rose 1.5%, while Bioceres crashed another 17%-extending its 2026 loss to 66.8%-amid its ongoing financial crisis.

The Merval now sits 20.93% below its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502-officially in bear market territory in peso terms. The correction has been even steeper in dollar terms given the peso's relative stability. Víctor Cantori of X Inversiones told Reuters that Argentina's stabilization process could be“conditioned by external factors,” including a potential oil-driven inflation shock and greater financial volatility from the Iran conflict.

Currency

The Argentina peso exchange rate today showed continued strength at the official level despite the equity selloff. The dollar official fell ARS 5 to ARS 1,415 at Banco Nación, while the mayorista dropped ARS 4 to ARS 1,396-remaining below the ARS 1,400 mark and extending its 2026 decline to ARS 59 (−4.1%). The BCRA's band ceiling was set at ARS 1,632.48, leaving the official rate 16.9% below the intervention limit-the widest gap since July 2025.

The blue dollar rebounded ARS 10 to ARS 1,425, moving above the official rate for the first time in several sessions. ABC Mercado de Cambios operator Nicolás Merino noted that seller pressure dominated from the open, pushing the mayorista to an intraday low of ARS 1,392.50 before modest rebounds. The BCRA purchased USD 50 million on the day, representing 13.5% of spot volume-above the 5% reference level.

The dramatic reserve drop of USD 871 million to USD 44,788 million requires context: approximately USD 450 million went to multilateral payments (BID and BIRF), and roughly USD 100 million reflected mark-to-market losses on gold as the precious metal declined 0.9% on the session. The BCRA's structural buying program-now totaling USD 3,298 million in 2026-remains the anchor of the FX framework. The Bonar 2027 licitación raised an additional USD 100 million on Friday at 5.59% yield, bringing total issuance to USD 500 million toward the USD 2,000 million target for covering July 2026 bond maturities.

Technical Analysis & Chart

The chart through Friday's close at 2,642,584 (the latest TradingView data available before Monday's session) shows a bearish continuation pattern. Friday's candle opened at 2,695,424, touched 2,722,456, sold off to 2,630,564, and closed at 2,642,584-a solid red body with a prominent upper wick indicating selling pressure above 2,700,000. Monday's further decline to 2,606,351 extends this pattern.

Momentum indicators on the daily chart are bearish. The MACD line at 10,788 sits well above the signal at −77,989, with the histogram at −88,777 deeply negative and widening. RSI reads 40.29 (fast) and 37.39 (slow), with the slow component approaching the oversold 35 threshold that has historically preceded tactical bounces in the Merval.

The index has now broken below the 2,646,170 support zone visible on the chart, with Monday's close at 2,606,351 opening the path toward the 2,522,654 and 2,465,484 levels. The 200-day SMA near 2,503,692 from prior sessions represents the long-term trend anchor. A sustained break below 2,500,000 would mark the deepest correction since the pre-Milei era.

Key Levels

Level	Price	Significance
Resistance 3	2,801,575	Upper Bollinger Band
Resistance 2	2,725,818	Bollinger midline / MA cluster
Resistance 1	2,650,062	Prior support zone
Last Close	2,606,351	Monday session close
Support 1	2,522,654	Chart support / lower Bollinger
Support 2	2,465,484	Deep chart support
Support 3	~2,503,692	200-day SMA (approx.)

Global Context

Monday's global session was bifurcated. Wall Street rallied 1% as Hormuz transit reports eased the most extreme disruption fears, but Argentine equities ignored the positive lead and continued selling. The S&P 500 gained 1.01% to 6,699.38, the Dow rose 0.83%, and the VIX dropped 4.9% to 25.85. Brent crude pulled back from $103.14 to approximately $100, while WTI fell 5.5% to $93.31.

Bank of America elevated its 2026 Brent forecast from $61 to $77.50 per barrel on Monday, citing the Hormuz blockade. For Argentina, elevated oil prices are a double-edged sword: Vaca Muerta exports benefit directly, but the inflationary pass-through complicates the government's disinflation narrative. February CPI came in at 2.9%-above the 2.7% consensus-and March is expected to be worse due to seasonal factors and energy cost pressures.

The DOJ's weekend filing in support of Argentina's motion to suspend discovery in the YPF nationalization case was a positive development, though it was overshadowed by the broader risk-off. The case, which dates back to the 2012 seizure, remains a tail risk for sovereign assets. Meanwhile, the BCRA 's Bonar 2027 program has raised USD 500 million of a planned USD 2,000 million, with seven licitaciones remaining before the July 2026 maturities of approximately USD 2,700 million.

Looking Ahead

March 17–18: The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting Wednesday. A hold at 3.50–3.75% is expected, but the dot plot and statement on oil-driven inflation will drive EM sentiment. The compressed Argentina-Fed rate differential (29% TNA vs. 3.50–3.75%) continues to support the carry trade, but any hawkish shift would widen the risk premium.

Country risk at 601: The breach above 600 is psychologically significant. Argentina needs to return below 500 to credibly re-access international debt markets. ABECEB has already revised 2026 GDP growth from 3.9% to 3.4%, and further country-risk deterioration could push the economy closer to a financing squeeze.

Inflation trajectory: February's 2.9% monthly CPI (above 2.7% consensus) has raised questions about the government's sub-1% target for H2 2026. Ámbito noted suspicious pre-announcement trading ahead of the release. March inflation is expected to accelerate further on seasonal factors and the oil-driven energy cost pass-through.

Reserve dynamics: Monday's USD 871 million reserve drop was largely technical (multilateral payments + gold mark-to-market), but it highlights the fragility of the reserve position. Net reserves remain deeply negative at approximately −USD 9.9 billion by IMF methodology. The BCRA's buying streak (now totaling USD 3,298 million in 2026) provides a structural floor, but debt payments in Q2–Q3 will test the program's sustainability.

Verdict

The Merval Argentina today defied Wall Street's 1% rally and continued lower, a divergence that underscores Argentina's heightened sensitivity to sovereign risk premiums. The country risk breaching 601 bps is the session's defining event: it pushes the government further from its goal of sub-500 bps sovereign market re-access and signals that the six-bank sell recommendation from early March is still filtering through institutional portfolios.

The peso story remains paradoxically strong. The mayorista below ARS 1,400, the BCRA accumulating USD 50 million per day, and the band ceiling at ARS 1,632.48 all signal a FX framework that is holding despite the equity and bond pressure. The blue-official gap remains minimal at ARS 10 (0.7%), a testament to the structural credibility of the managed float. But the reserve drop to USD 44,788 million-even if explained by one-off payments-reminds the market that the BCRA is operating with deeply negative net reserves.

Bias: Bearish near-term, cautiously constructive medium-term. The three-session losing streak, country risk at 601, and the Merval's 20.93% correction from the ATH all point to continued pressure. However, the slow RSI at 37.39 is approaching the oversold threshold, and the BCRA's FX anchor provides a fundamental floor. The Fed decision Wednesday is the next catalyst: a dovish hold could trigger a relief rally in Argentine bonds that pulls country risk back below 580 and supports a Merval bounce toward 2,650,000. A hawkish surprise would accelerate the selloff toward 2,522,654.

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