Russia 'Prepares Narva Scenario' With Propaganda Push In Estonia

Russia may be laying the groundwork for a potential incursion into eastern Estonia by promoting a coordinated propaganda campaign centered on the border city of Narva, according to intelligence assessments cited by Bild, AzerNEWS reports.

The report references statements by Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, who warned that the situation bears similarities to the early stages of the Russia's annexation of Crimea and broader aggression against Ukraine in 2014.

According to the report, Russian-linked social media channels have for several weeks promoted narratives calling for the creation of a so-called“Narva People's Republic.” Narva, a city of about 50,000 residents located on Estonia's eastern border, has a predominantly Russian-speaking population.

Estonian intelligence services reportedly view this information campaign as a potential precursor to destabilization efforts, echoing tactics used ahead of Russia's actions in Ukraine more than a decade ago.

Since early March, posts circulating on social media have called for the distribution of leaflets, acts of sabotage, and even armed mobilization in support of the proposed entity. Propaganda messages have included slogans such as“Russians, we are not alone!” and references to extending“Russian land” across northeastern Estonia.

Maps and flags depicting the alleged“republic” have also been shared, further fueling concerns over coordinated influence operations aimed at inciting unrest in the region.

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