Asia Intelligence Brief For Thursday, February 26, 2026

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Daily Edition · Thursday, February 26, 2026


Covering Feb 24–26





What matters today

1 Kim Jong Un concludes 9th WPK Congress - threatens to“completely destroy” South Korea; unveils 5-year weapons plan including submarine-launched ICBMs, anti-satellite weapons, AI drones; 14,000-troop parade in Pyongyang; US–ROK Freedom Shield drills set March 9–19
2 Thailand Election Commission certifies 396 of 400 seats - Bhumjaithai confirmed at 170 constituency wins; 300-seat coalition with Pheu Thai finalised; Anutin takes Interior + PM; cabinet allocation underway
3 Japan's Takaichi unveils security overhaul after landslide - national intelligence council, CFIUS-style screening body, counterstrike missiles online 2026; defense spending hits 2% GDP two years early; White House visit March 19
4 India approves $8.7B Israeli precision-strike package - SPICE-1000 kits, Rampage missiles; Modi in Tel Aviv for two-day state visit; defense budget hits record ₹7.85 lakh crore ($87B, +15%)
5 China–Philippines pivot toward joint SCS patrols - Senator Tulfo says coastguard MOU expected by end of March; simultaneous Thitu Island sovereignty visit draws Chinese naval shadow



01
Market Snapshot

Pair / Index	Level	Day Chg	Signal
Nikkei 225	58,753	+0.47%	▲ 3rd consecutive record close; Takaichi trade; dovish BOJ board picks
Shanghai Composite	~4,125	-0.08%	▶ Flat; minerals suspension provides stability; tariff uncertainty caps
Hang Seng	26,381	-1.44%	▼ Tech selloff; IMF current account warning; mainland retreat
Kospi	~5,310	+0.15%	▲ Samsung/SK Hynix rally on Nvidia earnings beat
ASX 200	9,183	+0.54%	▲ Record high; miners lead; RBA pause expected March
USD/JPY	155.99	-0.24%	▲ Yen firms on hawkish BOJ Takata comments; US rate checks reported
USD/CNY	6.84	-0.29%	▲ Yuan firms; PBOC holds steady amid trade truce
Gold	$5,204/oz	-0.43%	▼ Consolidates near ATH; geopolitical hedging persists
Brent Crude	$70.81	+0.17%	▲ Geopolitical risk premium; Middle East tensions; supply uncertainty
Copper	~$9,450/t	-0.5%	▼ China demand signals mixed; tariff uncertainty persists

02
Conflict & Stability Tracker


Critical · Korean Peninsula
Kim's Five-Year Weapons Plan + Freedom Shield
Kim Jong Un concluded 9th WPK Congress threatening to“completely destroy” South Korea. Unveiled 5-year military wishlist: submarine-launched ICBMs, anti-satellite systems, AI-powered unmanned attack platforms, electronic warfare, reconnaissance satellites. 50 new 600mm rocket launchers deployed pre-congress. 14,000-troop parade in Pyongyang with daughter Kim Ju Ae. US–ROK Freedom Shield drills March 9–19. Kim leaves door open for US dialogue if Washington drops“hostile” policy.


Tense · South China Sea
Dual-Track: Joint Patrols + Sovereignty Tests
Philippines senator says China–Philippines coastguard MOU expected by March. Yet Feb 21 Thitu Island visit saw phones display“Welcome to CHINA”; Chinese navy and coastguard shadowed Philippine officials. Philippines pushing ASEAN Code of Conduct as 2026 chair. Leaked DFA letter exposes Manila strategy split between transparency vs diplomacy.


Tense · East China Sea / Taiwan Strait
Japan's Counterstrike Pivot
Takaichi's Taiwan comments provoked Chinese radar lock-on incident. Chinese carrier drills near Iwo Jima (first dual-carrier operation there). Japan deploying long-range missiles in 2026 - first counterstrike capability since 1945. New MOD office dedicated to Chinese Pacific operations. Beijing warns Japan“deviating from peaceful development.”


Watching · Thailand
Coalition Consolidation + Cambodia Truce
Election Commission certifies seats today. Bhumjaithai–Pheu Thai coalition at 300 seats; cabinet allocation underway. People's Party (118 seats) in opposition. Street protests allege electoral irregularities. Cambodia border truce holds but unresolved. Thai GDP growth stagnant at ~1.5% vs regional 5–6%.



03
Fast Take

DEFENSEIndia's DAC approves $8.7B Israeli precision-strike weapon package including 1,000 SPICE-1000 kits and Rampage air-to-surface missiles. PM Modi in Tel Aviv for two-day state visit; framework defense cooperation agreement expected. India's FY2026–27 defense budget hits ₹7.85 lakh crore ($87B), up 15.19%; capital outlay rises 21.8% to ₹2.19 lakh crore.
MILITARYNorth Korea's 9th WPK Congress concludes with Kim Jong Un declaring his forces could“completely destroy” South Korea. Five-year weapons plan includes submarine-launched ICBMs, anti-satellite systems, AI-powered unmanned attack platforms, and electronic warfare systems. 14,000-troop military parade held; no weapons procession but 50 new 600mm rocket launchers already deployed pre-congress. Kim leaves door open for US dialogue. US–ROK Freedom Shield drills confirmed for March 9–19.
POLITICSThai Election Commission certifies Bhumjaithai at 170 constituency seats, People's Party 88, Pheu Thai 58. Coalition of ~300 seats finalised minus Kla Tham (58 seats). Bhumjaithai allocates 19 cabinet seats across 14 ministries including Interior, Finance, Commerce, Foreign Affairs. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapat and FM Supajee Suthumpun retained as technocrats.
DEFENSEJapan approves record ¥9.04T ($58B) defense budget for FY2026, up 9.4% YoY. Fourth year of five-year program to hit 2% GDP; supplementary budget already pushed FY2025 past that target. PM Takaichi announces national intelligence council under direct oversight and CFIUS-style foreign investment screening body. White House visit set March 19.
MININGChina's critical minerals suspension runs until Nov 27, 2026: gallium, germanium, antimony export bans paused under licensing regime; military end-use ban remains. 15 firms whitelisted for tungsten exports, 11 for antimony, 44 for silver (2026–27). Pentagon's DARPA OPEN programme targets same minerals with AI-derived reference pricing backed by 50+ nation tariff bloc.
GEOPOLITICSPhilippines and China begin rapprochement: joint coastguard patrol MOU expected by March per Senator Tulfo after meeting Ambassador Jing Quan. Yet Philippine officials visiting Thitu Island Feb 21 received“Welcome to CHINA” phone alerts as Chinese vessels shadowed them. Manila maintaining dual track: dialogue with Beijing + deeper security ties with US, Canada, Japan, Australia.


04
Developments to Watch

1. Kim Jong Un's Five-Year Weapons Plan: From Anti-Satellite to AI Drones
The 9th Workers' Party Congress, North Korea's most significant political event, wrapped up Wednesday after seven days in Pyongyang. Kim Jong Un used the closing to declare that his forces could“completely destroy” South Korea and unveiled a five-year military development roadmap targeting submarine-launched ICBMs, anti-satellite weapons for wartime use, AI-powered unmanned attack systems, electronic warfare platforms, and advanced reconnaissance satellites. Of the 13 missile systems designated at the 8th Congress in 2021, four are now operationally deployed. Fifty new 600mm multiple rocket launchers were ceremonially deployed pre-congress - each battery capable of devastating an entire airbase if equipped with tactical nuclear warheads, covering all of South Korea's 400km depth. A 14,000-troop parade followed, notably without the usual nuclear missile procession. Kim left the door open to US dialogue but only if Washington“respects our country's current status” and drops its“hostile policy.” The US and South Korea responded by confirming Freedom Shield drills for March 9–19, though speculation persists that the exercises may be toned down to create conditions for diplomacy.


2. Thailand Consolidates: Bhumjaithai's Conservative Restoration
The Election Commission today certified 396 of 400 constituency seats from the Feb 8 election, confirming the most significant conservative electoral victory in Thailand's modern history. Bhumjaithai won 170 constituency seats; with party-list allocation it holds 193 total. The 300-seat coalition with Pheu Thai (74 seats) is now official, minus the Kla Tham party, whose leader Thamanat Prompow carries“grey money” baggage. Bhumjaithai has allocated itself 19 cabinet seats spanning 14 ministries. Key technocrats retained: Finance Minister Ekniti, Commerce Minister Supajee, Foreign Minister Sihasak. The business community welcomes stability after three PMs in three years, but GDP growth sits at a stagnant ~1.5% while neighbours Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam grow at 5–6%. The People's Party (118 seats) will serve as the opposition anchor. Street protests over alleged electoral irregularities add an early stress test.


3. Japan's Defense Revolution: From Pacifism to Counterstrike
PM Sanae Takaichi is executing the most radical shift in Japanese security posture since 1945. After her landslide election victory, she used her first parliamentary address to announce a national intelligence council under direct PM oversight, a CFIUS-style foreign investment screening body, and an acceleration of defense spending to 2% of GDP two years ahead of schedule. Japan's FY2026 defense budget of ¥9.04 trillion ($58B) is up 9.4%, funding long-range counterstrike missiles, AI-operated drones, and a ¥160B ($1B) next-gen fighter jet co-developed with the UK and Italy. China's response has been sharp: a consul general posted a since-deleted threat about“cutting off” Japan's“dirty neck.” Chinese carriers conducted dual operations near Iwo Jima for the first time. Takaichi visits Trump at the White House March 19 for what she calls a“new golden age” of the alliance.


4. India–Israel: The $8.7B Precision-Strike Deepening
Modi's two-day state visit to Israel (Feb 25–26) is anchored by the DAC's approval of a $8.7B precision-strike weapon package from Rafael and Elbit. The deal includes 1,000 SPICE-1000 guidance kits converting“dumb” bombs into 100km-range precision weapons, plus Rampage air-to-surface missiles with 150–250km range. Integration targets: Su-30MKI and Tejas Mk1A. Israel Aerospace Industries is also in talks for six Boeing 767 tanker conversions (~$900M). India's defense budget hit a record ₹7.85 lakh crore ($87B), making it the world's fourth-largest military spender. Capital outlay rose 21.8% with 75% earmarked for domestic procurement under“Atmanirbhar Bharat.” Meanwhile, India–US defense trade has jumped to $20B, with F-35 discussions ongoing though analysts doubt India will accept the conditions attached.


5. Critical Minerals: The Dual Suspension and the Western Counter-Architecture
China's one-year suspension of export bans on gallium, germanium, and antimony (through Nov 27, 2026) has provided temporary supply-chain relief, but the architecture remains loaded. Beijing's military end-use ban against the US stays active. The MOFCOM whitelist system for tungsten (15 firms), antimony (11 firms), and silver (44 firms) gives Beijing real-time control over who exports and when. Meanwhile, the Pentagon's DARPA-built OPEN programme targets these exact same minerals with AI-derived reference pricing, backed by adjustable tariffs across a 50+ nation trade bloc proposed by VP Vance at the Feb 4 Critical Minerals Ministerial. S&P Global and Finnish firm Rovjok supply the data. The programme transfers to the nonprofit Critical Minerals Forum in 2027. The question for Asian producers: does the Western pricing counter-architecture strip Chinese market manipulation, or does it create a parallel distortion?


6. South China Sea: From Confrontation to Cooperation?
The potential for joint China–Philippines coastguard patrols marks a shift from years of near-kinetic confrontations. Senator Tulfo, chairing the Philippines' foreign relations committee, says a MOU is expected by end of March after meeting Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan. Yet the diplomatic overture sits alongside continued sovereignty assertions: Philippine officials flew to Thitu Island Feb 21 only to have phones register on Chinese cell networks; Chinese coastguard, naval, and fishing vessels operated nearby. A leaked DFA letter exposed internal disagreement between the military's“transparency initiative” (publicly documenting incidents) and the foreign ministry's preference for quiet diplomacy. Manila is accelerating Code of Conduct talks under its 2026 ASEAN chairmanship, scheduling monthly working group sessions. The dual track - cooperation with China, deterrence with AUKUS/Quad allies - is fragile but rational.


05
Sovereign & Credit Pulse

Country	Assessment
Japan	Nikkei at all-time highs; defense spending surge funded by new taxes. Debt-to-GDP at ~240%, world's highest among advanced economies. Takaichi's pro-stimulus stance + dovish BOJ board picks create yen weakness risk. Rating agencies monitoring fiscal trajectory as defense ambitions scale.
India	Record defense budget signals military modernisation priority. $8.7B Israeli deal + $20B US defense trade deepens Western alignment. India-US trade deal framework (Feb 2) faces domestic pushback: 125.87% US duty on Indian solar modules; Congress MP demands halt. Fourth-largest military spender globally. Two-front contingency (China + Pakistan) drives spending.
Thailand	Conservative restoration brings business stability after three PMs in three years. 300-seat coalition supermajority provides legislative runway. But GDP growth at ~1.5% lags regional peers (Indonesia 5%, Vietnam 6%). Electoral irregularity protests add risk. Cambodia border truce fragile. Retained technocrat ministers signal continuity over reform.
North Korea	9th WPK Congress codifies five-year weapons escalation plan. Four of 13 missile systems from 2021 congress now operationally deployed. Kim rejects dialogue with Seoul, leaves door ajar for Washington. Russian tourism and economic exchanges deepening - 9,985 Russian nationals entered in 2025, highest since tracking began. Cross-border road bridge under construction. Sanctions evasion through Russia expanding regime revenue.

06
Power Players

Sanae Takaichi - Japan's PM executing most ambitious defense overhaul since 1945. Landslide election win. Pledged“new golden age” of US alliance. Creating national intelligence council and CFIUS-style screening body. Visiting Trump March 19. Pro-stimulus, known as Japan's“Iron Lady.”
Anutin Charnvirakul - Thai PM confirmed for second term after Bhumjaithai's 193-seat victory. Consolidating power as PM + Interior Minister. Coalition of 300 seats. Benefited from nationalist wave during Thai–Cambodia border conflict. First conservative electoral victory in Thailand this century.
Kim Jong Un - Concluded 9th WPK Congress with threats to“completely destroy” South Korea and a five-year weapons wishlist spanning submarine-launched ICBMs to anti-satellite systems. Held 14,000-troop parade with daughter Kim Ju Ae. Left door open to US dialogue. Deepening Russia ties: 9,985 Russian nationals entered DPRK in 2025.
Narendra Modi - In Tel Aviv for two-day state visit anchoring $8.7B precision-strike deal. India's defense budget at record $87B. Balancing US, Israeli, and Russian defense partnerships while deepening“Atmanirbhar Bharat” domestic production.
Lee Jae Myung - South Korean President pursuing inter-Korean engagement despite Kim's hostile rhetoric. Hopes Trump's expected China visit (late March/April) could open door to renewed Washington–Pyongyang talks. Freedom Shield drills confirmed March 9–19 but may be toned down to create conditions for diplomacy.


07
Regulatory & Policy Watch

China Minerals Whitelist: MOFCOM published 2026–27 exporter whitelists: 15 firms for tungsten, 11 for antimony, 44 for silver. Exports still require individual licenses; 45-day review window can stretch longer. Military end-use ban to US remains active. Full rare-earth liberalisation has not occurred.
Japan CFIUS-Style Screening: Takaichi announced creation of foreign investment screening body modelled after US CFIUS. Will complement existing Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act. Targets Chinese investment in critical infrastructure and defense supply chains. Part of first-ever defense industry strategy expected by end of 2026.
India–US Trade Framework: Framework trade deal signed Feb 2 faces congressional opposition. US imposed 125.87% duty on Indian solar module imports. Congress MP Jairam Ramesh demands deal be placed on hold, warning of“catastrophic consequences for millions of farmers.” India reportedly agreed to stop buying Russian oil and explore Venezuelan crude through US channels.
RBA Rate Path: Reserve Bank of Australia hiked to 3.85% in February after persistent inflation (CPI 3.8% YoY). Pause expected March 16–17. CBA, NAB, Westpac forecast potential further hike to 4.10% by May if inflation remains sticky. AUD at ~0.705 vs USD.


08
Calendar & Watchlist

Date	Event
Mar 9–19	US–ROK Freedom Shield drills - potential DPRK provocations in response
Feb 26	Modi–Netanyahu Tel Aviv summit Day 2; defense cooperation framework signing expected
Late Feb	Thai Election Commission certifies remaining 4 constituency seats + 100 party-list seats
Mar 16–17	Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision - hold expected at 3.85%
Mar 17–18	US FOMC meeting - Fed rate decision (hold at 3.50–3.75% expected)
Mar 19	PM Takaichi visits White House -“new golden age” of US–Japan alliance

09
Bottom Line
Asia's security architecture is being rewritten in real time, and the pace is accelerating. In Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un just concluded the most significant political event of his regime by declaring his forces could“completely destroy” South Korea and unveiling a weapons wishlist that spans submarine-launched ICBMs to anti-satellite systems and AI-powered drones. In Tokyo, Sanae Takaichi is deploying counterstrike weapons and building a national intelligence apparatus for the first time since 1945. In Tel Aviv, Narendra Modi just signed India's largest-ever foreign precision-strike deal while pushing defense spending to $87 billion. In Bangkok, Thailand's conservatives have consolidated power in a way not seen this century. Beneath the geopolitics sits the minerals question: China's temporary suspension of critical mineral export bans creates breathing room, but Beijing retains the kill switch, and the Pentagon is building an AI-driven pricing counter-architecture targeting the same minerals. The dual suspension - Chinese restraint and Western challenge - is a ceasefire, not a settlement. The lesson from this week: Asia's biggest powers are arming, aligning, and positioning for a world where supply chains are weapons, the price of minerals is a national security decision, and the Korean Peninsula remains the most heavily militarised fault line on earth.


Asia Intelligence Brief
Daily Edition · Thursday, February 26, 2026

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