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Three-Way Tie Upends UK Byelection Race
(MENAFN) A constituency that Labour has commanded for generations is teetering on the edge of a historic upset, as the Gorton and Denton byelection enters its final day of campaigning Thursday with a punishing three-way race that few saw coming.
New polling conducted by Opinium for Byline Times and Forward Democracy reveals a statistical dead heat that has rattled Westminster. Among all respondents, the Green Party and Labour sit level at 28%, with Reform UK breathing down their necks at 27%. When filtered to likely voters, the Greens edge fractionally ahead at 30%, while Labour and Reform UK remain deadlocked at 28% — a margin so razor-thin it renders any prediction virtually meaningless ahead of polling day.
Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer has emerged as a genuine threat in the Manchester-based Gorton wards, tapping into mounting discontent among younger voters and Muslim communities disillusioned with Labour's national policy direction.
Meanwhile, Reform UK's Matt Goodwin has carved out substantial support across Denton and Tameside, casting the contest as a direct verdict on Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government and the deepening cost-of-living crisis gripping working-class communities.
For Labour, the calculus is brutal. A party that has held this northwest England seat for decades now faces the prospect of an embarrassing defeat — one that would land as a direct strike against Starmer's authority at a particularly vulnerable moment for his administration.
Compounding the pressure is a campaign clouded by internal discord. The controversial decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing as the party's candidate has, according to reports, estranged local activists and cracked open the door for tactical voting — with traditional Labour supporters now torn between backing the Greens to block a Reform UK surge, or the reverse.
Political analysts warn the fragmented vote could hand victory to whichever party best consolidates last-minute support — making Thursday's turnout figures as consequential as the ballot itself.
New polling conducted by Opinium for Byline Times and Forward Democracy reveals a statistical dead heat that has rattled Westminster. Among all respondents, the Green Party and Labour sit level at 28%, with Reform UK breathing down their necks at 27%. When filtered to likely voters, the Greens edge fractionally ahead at 30%, while Labour and Reform UK remain deadlocked at 28% — a margin so razor-thin it renders any prediction virtually meaningless ahead of polling day.
Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer has emerged as a genuine threat in the Manchester-based Gorton wards, tapping into mounting discontent among younger voters and Muslim communities disillusioned with Labour's national policy direction.
Meanwhile, Reform UK's Matt Goodwin has carved out substantial support across Denton and Tameside, casting the contest as a direct verdict on Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government and the deepening cost-of-living crisis gripping working-class communities.
For Labour, the calculus is brutal. A party that has held this northwest England seat for decades now faces the prospect of an embarrassing defeat — one that would land as a direct strike against Starmer's authority at a particularly vulnerable moment for his administration.
Compounding the pressure is a campaign clouded by internal discord. The controversial decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing as the party's candidate has, according to reports, estranged local activists and cracked open the door for tactical voting — with traditional Labour supporters now torn between backing the Greens to block a Reform UK surge, or the reverse.
Political analysts warn the fragmented vote could hand victory to whichever party best consolidates last-minute support — making Thursday's turnout figures as consequential as the ballot itself.
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