Has Russia Agreed To A US-Enforced Ceasefire Plan For Ukraine?

That scenario is especially likely if NATO troops deploy to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte indicated in a speech at the Rada on the same day as the Financial Times report was published.

In his words,“Some European allies have announced that they will deploy troops to Ukraine after a deal is reached. Troops on the ground, jets in the air, ships on the Black Sea. The United States will be the backstop.”

Russia has repeatedly warned that it would target foreign forces deployed to Ukraine, and has just as repeatedly opposed a ceasefire, instead proposing a comprehensive end to the conflict that resolves its root causes and restores Ukraine's neutrality.

Agreeing to the reported three-tiered ceasefire enforcement plan, especially if it involves the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine, would therefore represent a significant policy shift.

To be clear, no Russian official has said anything that could even remotely be interpreted as implying that the Kremlin is considering such an arrangement, so it remains purely speculative.

Nevertheless, it can't be ruled out entirely. Hypothetically, Russia could be persuaded by incentives such as Ukraine withdrawing from Donbass, a resource-centric strategic partnership with the US and rapidly phased sanctions relief.

Such a trade-off could be rationalized by Moscow as reflecting a calculation that the military, financial and opportunity costs of pursuing the maximalist goals declared at the onset of the special military operation now outweigh the benefits of such mutual compromises.