Trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US Talks Signal Shift In War Diplomacy

Latest stories From failure to filler: Why US Navy can't quit its flawed LCS European strategic independence? Don't hold your breath BRICS laying first tracks for new global payment system 2. A post-conflict NATO deployment is being discussed

Rubio also told the committee that discussions over“security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French and the UK, and then a US backstop”, which would require Russia's consent.

The US is still debating the wisdom of becoming“committed potentially in a conflict, in a future conflict,” however, despite special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner earlier signaling US support for NATO troops in Ukraine. The second round of talks is therefore likely involve this issue as well.

3. A quid pro quo might be in the cards

The Financial Times reported that US security guarantees for Ukraine are dependent on its withdrawal from Donbass, while the New York Times reported that this Kiev-controlled part of the region could become either a demilitarized zone or host neutral peacekeepers.

A quid pro quo may therefore be in the cards, under which Ukraine would withdraw from Donbass in exchange for US security guarantees and a NATO deployment – an arrangement Russia might accept if neutral peacekeepers stand between the sides.

4. Trump has eschewed publicly pressuring Zelensky

However promising such a quid pro quo may appear, at least in terms of achieving a ceasefire at a minimum (provided that Russia reverses its formal opposition ), Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky remains defiant about withdrawing from Donbass.

Trump has also avoided publicly pressuring him to do so, including through tangible measures such as suspending arms sales to the EU that are destined for Ukraine, suggesting clear limits on how far the US is willing to go in pursuit of a deal.

5. US diplomatic role is now indispensable

Despite these limits, the US diplomatic role is now indispensable, as evidenced by Russia's agreement to trilateralize its bilateral talks with Ukraine, representing a significant policy shift.

Russia therefore appears to believe that the US is sincere about negotiating a deal with Ukraine, even if it is unwilling to apply maximum pressure to that end.