Türkiye’s Economic Data Shows Positive Indicators

(MENAFN) Positive trends across Türkiye’s economy—from inflation to growth, exports to labor force data, and from the balance of payments to credit risk premiums—have boosted targets and expectations for 2026.

The Turkish economy expanded by 3.7% in the third quarter of 2025, marking 21 consecutive quarters of growth. National income, which was $1.26 trillion in 2024, surged to a record $1.54 trillion by Q3 2025.

Exports also hit historic highs. In December 2025, shipments rose 12.8% year-on-year, breaking monthly records with $26.4 billion.

For the full year, exports reached $273.4 billion, the highest level in the history of the republic and in line with the Medium-Term Program (MTP) targets.

Goods exports alone set a new record, rising 4.5% from the previous year to $273.4 billion by the end of 2025. “Customs gates will continue to work overtime for this year's record,” authorities noted.

Rising goods and services exports contributed to a sustainable current account deficit, projected at around 1.4% of national income by year-end 2025.

Türkiye’s current account posted a $457 million surplus in October, while the balance excluding gold and energy recorded a $7.03 billion surplus. The current account has maintained positive momentum for four consecutive months, including October.

Disinflation Momentum
Record performance in key economic metrics coincided with a continuing decline in inflation.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 30.89% in December 2025, marking the lowest annual level in 49 months.

Breakdowns by consumer spending categories show the decline extended across multiple groups. Services inflation dropped to 43.99% in December 2025, the lowest in 44 months. “Service inflation was last recorded at 42.18% in April 2022,” the data showed.

Housing inflation, another critical price driver, eased to 61.61% in December, the lowest in 34 months. “It last fell below this level in February 2023,” the figures indicated.

Meanwhile, basic goods inflation fell to its lowest level in 60 months, recording an annual change of 17.71% in December 2025. “It was 17.24% in December 2020.”

Clothing and footwear inflation, which has stayed in single digits over the past six months, was 5.79% in December, marking the lowest point in 55 months. “The last time the figure was below this level in the category was May 2021.”

Labor Market & Manufacturing Outlook
Türkiye’s unemployment rate stood at 8.6% in November 2025, up 0.1 percentage points from the prior month, but remaining in single digits for 31 months.

The ISO Türkiye Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December 2025 climbed for the second consecutive month, from 48 in November to 48.9.

“This index reached its lowest level in the last 12 months, with the deterioration in operating conditions remaining quite limited in the last month of last year,” analysts said. The PMI’s approach to the threshold value of 50 drew particular attention, signaling a potential shift toward expansion.

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